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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6961

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by pmaloney View Post
    It's ALIVE!
    I guess it is.
    https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...tail&FORM=VIRE

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  3. #6962

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls tried to make another run to the upside to start the new week, but the sellers capped the rally; holding it to modest gains.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    No real change to the charts. There bullish disposition remains in place.

    The OEX is bearish for Tuesday. The CBOE is neutral to modestly bearish. Breadth was flat on the day, but of course remains bullish.

    Steady as she goes for the bulls. We might see some selling on Tuesday given the bearish options, but that's not much for the bears to hang their hat on given breadth.

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  5. #6963

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We got a modest pullback today. The market could use a bigger one to reset the bullish momentum, but whether we get one in the short term remains to be seen. Certainly price is hitting resistance and many of my indicators are stretched. With NAAIM bullish, I am thinking any downside will still likely be limited, though that does not mean we can't have more than a modest, short-term dip. Beyond the short-term (for which I am neutral), I am leaning bullish.

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  7. #6964

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The battle between the bulls and bears continued today, generally ending in a draw.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The longer price dances around above the 200 dma, the harder it may be for the bears to get any serious traction. The charts look bullish, though price is moving sideways at the moment.

    The options are neutral. Breadth remains bullish as does my intermediate term system.

    Not much to add this evening. Thursday may be more of the same. NAAIM reports in the morning.

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  9. #6965

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears managed to take price a bit lower today, but technical damage remains tame.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price remains above the 200 dma on both charts. I really seems like price is simply consolidating gains. Momentum is weakening, but only somewhat modestly. The 50 dma is rising, if you haven't noticed. In the weeks ahead I anticipate a positive cross of the 200 dma.

    The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM didn't change much and remains in the bullish camp. Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

    Aside from short-term weakness, I continue to look for a resumption of upside movement to price once consolidation is complete.

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  11. #6966

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Last week, the market played out with a downward bias, till Friday. On Friday, the bulls pushed back and price was driven back to near its previous top. The C and S funds closed with moderate gains as result.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Now, we head into a new week. But has anything really changed? Not that I can discern. The bullish bias appears to be intact as price has now remained about the 200 dma for more than 2 weeks. I believe we are and will continue to trend higher.

    The options are neutral to modestly bullish. NAAIM is bullish. TSP Talk is bullish.

    Breadth is bullish, my intermediate term system remains bullish. I could go on, but you get the picture. The bulls have control. I'm looking for more of the same in the weeks ahead; barring some kind of event (which is always possible).


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  13. #6967

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls were not able to take advantage of Friday's rally to extend gains, though they tried early in the trading session.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    But the bears mounted a counter attack and took stocks lower, even coming close to testing the 200 dma on both charts before the bulls stepped back in and kept price above that key level.

    This evening, the options are neutral. My intermediate term system remains positive, but weakening (not a concern at this time). Breadth remains positive and is not losing much ground despite the selling pressure.

    I believe a base is now being built to launch another move to the upside.

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  15. #6968

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The battle above the 200 dma continued today and the bulls continue to successfully defend it.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    No change to the charts (for the most part). Breadth remains bullish and resilient. The options are neutral (again).

    The market is stuck in tight trading range for now. It should eventually breakout to the upside. A test of the 200 dma would be okay.

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  17. #6969

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears just won't go away. Today's action did some technical damage too.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price on the DWCPF has closed below the 200 dma. Price on the S&P 500 held above its respective 200 dma. Momentum is falling. Breadth fell today as well. My intermediate term system, while still positive, is now under attack.

    So, things have not gotten a bit more dicey, but still not overly so. The options are a bit bullish this evening. TRIN is bullish. we're oversold in the short term. The indicators are suggesting that we could see a turn back up on Thursday (or at least a bounce), but we might get additional selling first. In any event, I remain bullish overall. If price on the S&P 500 closes under the 200 dma, we might have more pain coming. But I still don't anticipate anything too serious at this point.

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  19. #6970

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears started early and the bulls never really countered as price took another pretty good pounding. I am not surprised by the additional selling, but the indicators suggested we should have seen some upside too.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So, now price is testing the 200 dma on the S&P 500. RSI has fallen off pretty good, which significantly reduces the overbought readings we had a few trading days ago. Momentum is still falling and has not turned yet. Breadth is neutral after being bullish for about 2 months.

    The OEX (smart money) has not been bearish and this evening it's still not bearish. The CBOE is bullish. NAAIM showed these money managers shifting a bit more bearish, but not enough to look for serious downside action. Therefore, this selling pressure is likely just an opportunity for the bulls to reload. But that doesn't mean the selling is over.

    Since we didn't get much upside today, I'm thinking the chances of a bounce are higher now for Friday.

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  21. #6971

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Last week was a big win for the bears as all 3 TSP stock funds got hammered.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Both charts clearly show that price in now below the 200 dma. RSI has fallen below the neutral line. Momentum is decidedly to the downside. Note though, that the rising 50 dma is not too far below and may provide support should the selling continue.

    My intermediate term system is still positive, but not far from flipping negative. Sentiment shows the options leaning a bit bullish for Monday. NAAIM is leaning bullish as well, but have tempered their long positions. TSP Talk got more bearish, but overall is neutral.

    Breadth is neutral, but still looking weak in the short term.

    Overall, the indicators are leaning bearish, but we've seen enough selling to look for at least a bounce. The 50 dma should be watched for support.

    There are some geopolitical events taking place (power outage in Venezuela, etc.) that may be pointing to a significant future event and this could be why we are seeing some selling to this point. While that may sound bearish, it may actually be bullish. I am leaning toward the bullish outcome (for what it's worth). Aside from that this aspect of my worldview, the technical and sentiment pictures support a rally in the days ahead.

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  23. #6972

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We got the bounce. But it felt more like a turn. Does it have legs?

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    A significant portion of recent losses were retraced Monday. Momentum turned back up. Breadth did too. Price is now back above the 200 dma on the S&P 500 and closed right at that key average on the DWCPF.

    The options are neutral this evening. I note that TRIN and TRINQ are leaning bearish for Tuesday, but any selling may not amount to a whole lot. Still, we need to see some follow through from the bulls now. I think we'll get it even if things get a bit choppy.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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