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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6925

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bullish bias continued today as the indicators suggested.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price broke to the upside on the S&P 500, though not by a lot. However, the DWCPF pulled further away from its initial break, which certainly give us a bullish context. The 200 dma is the next target.

    The options are bearish this evening, which suggests some measure of weakness on Friday. TRINQ suggests weakness too. NAAIM came in more bullish, so that mitigates downside risk for the next few days. That means we may see some selling, but it likely won't be meaningful in terms of the market trend (up).

    All of my other indicators remain bullish. I remain bullish.

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  3. #6926

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Last week, stocks roared. Our TSP stock funds had weekly gains of almost 3% for the C and S funds, while the I fund was up a bit over 1%.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price has clawed back significant gains since the bottom almost a month ago. After easily clearing the 50 dma on both charts, price seems to have its sights on the 200 dma. Momentum is positive. Breadth and volume are positive.

    The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is bearish. TSP Talk sentiment is bearish. NAAIM is moderately bullish.

    The market is due more selling than it's seen, but the trend is clearly up right now and the indicators are still pointing in that direction. I remain bullish for the new week.

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  5. #6927

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market finally had a pullback, which was needed.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    No real technical damage was done. Price may test the 50 dma just below. I am looking for a successful test if we get one.

    The OEX is a bit bearish this evening, but nothing dramatic. The CBOE is neutral. TRIN and TRINQ are modestly bullish. Breadth turned down, but remains positive.

    I believe this pullback is temporary and it was due. The trend remains up and I see no reason after a 1-day pullback to change that perspective. The indicators are mixed this evening. I am neutral for Wednesday.

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  7. #6928

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market had a mixed trading day Thursday.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price is dancing around just above the 50 dma on both charts. I am still expecting price to make a run at the 200 dma sooner or later.

    The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM did not change much from last week and remains modestly bullish.

    Most other indicators appear to be holding steady in bullish configurations. The uptrend looks to be intact to this point.

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  9. #6929

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The current rally slowed down last week as weekly price changes were mixed for the 3 TSP stock funds. The C fund was down modestly for the week, while the S and I funds were up.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    It was almost a losing week until Friday's rally saw upside gaps on both charts and solid gains by the close. So far, the 50 dma is holding very well and the 200 dma remains in sight.

    The OEX is neutral for Monday, while the CBOE is bearish. NAAIM is neutral to modestly bullish overall. Interestingly, the TSP Talk sentiment survey came in at an even split.

    Breadth remains bullish, as does upside volume. I am neutral for Monday, but bullish for the intermediate term (week).

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  11. #6930

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears returned on Monday as price was pressured once again, but losses were contained and well within reason for a market that has rallied as much as this one has over the past few weeks. It would seem a trading range is being defined, but I expect that range to break to the upside given the trend remains up.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    No significant changes can be seen on the charts.

    The OEX is neutral this evening, while the CBOE is modestly bullish. My intermediate term system remains positive as does breadth.

    The bias remains higher.


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  13. #6931

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The back and forth action continued today as the bears tried to take price lower, but the bulls would step in to counter the weakness.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    I have no strong short-term conviction on price movement right now, but the sideways action should break to the upside given the trend.

    TRINQ is bullish for Wednesday. The OEX and CBOE are neutral. My intermediate term system remains positive.

    I suspect we'll see some degree of upside on Wednesday, but the bears may try to counter again. It could be another day similar to today.

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  15. #6932

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said I was leaning bullish, but was not sure if the bears would try to counter the move. They tried, but not very effectively. I also said that I was anticipating an upside breakout given that was still the trend.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price did breakout on both charts today. Breadth was very positive as was volume. The move may have legs, but we'll give it a bit more time to play out.

    The OEX is bearish this evening, while the CBOE is neutral. I suspect the market may give something back on Thursday, but I am not looking for any serious downside.

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  17. #6933

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I was looking for some degree of weakness of Thursday, but didn't think we'd see anything serious. We didn't. In fact, it was mostly an "up" day. Not surprising with breadth almost vertical to the upside.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price is getting closer to testing those 200 dma's. Maybe next week?

    This evening, the options are bearish overall. However, NAAIM came in relatively unchanged and that's bullish beyond a day or two. Breadth is very bullish as is the A/D line.

    I remain bullish overall, but the options suggest weakness on Friday. If we don't get weakness, we may get chop instead as the market digests recent gains. Of course, we could rally some more too, but I don't favor that possibility. For our purposes in TSP, I'd look beyond Friday and remain focused on staying the course in stocks.

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  19. #6934

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The upward bias continued last week.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that the 200 dma remains untested, but I am looking for a test over the days ahead. Momentum remains positive as does breadth.

    The OEX is bearish for Monday, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM remains on the bullish side. TSP Talk got bulled up last week. Overall, I am looking for price to continue to chop higher over the course of this week.

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  21. #6935

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Monday picked up where last week left off as price continued to march higher.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price is not far from testing the 200 dma on the S&P 500. Price on the DWCPF isn't much further away either. This will be an area where price may encounter resistance, so we'll have to see how price reacts to this key average. Momentum remains bullish.

    The options are now neutral. Breadth remains quite positive. I remain bullish.

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  23. #6936

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    When I read your posts, I always imagine it being said in the Neo voice

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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