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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6829

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls finally got a bounce that didn't fall apart today.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price is now somewhat rangebound and looking to either breakout or breakdown. Momentum turned up. Breadth turned back up, but is still in a downtrend.

    Looking at sentiment, the OEX is neutral. The CBOE has not yet been posted.

    Today's rally has not changed the trend, but the longer price bounces around in its current range, the better the odds of a breakout to the upside. Any breakout does not necessarily mean the market heads back towards its August highs. There is a lot of resistance to cut through first. I tend to think the bull market has peaked and any rally will fizzle well before those August highs.

    I am neutral heading into Wednesday.

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  3. #6830

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls managed to string together 2 consecutive days of upside in a row. Is this the start of a sustained move higher? It's too early to tell, but I'm not a believer to this point.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The gap higher at the open is a bit suspicious. Price closed off the highs of the day too. Momentum has turned up, however. Can the S&P 500 test its 200 dma? That's significant resistance at this point, so we'll have to wait and see if it makes a run at it.

    Breadth was not impressive today despite the rally, though it did turn up (still negative overall). The options are looking neutral for Thursday. NAAIM reports in the morning.

    The market still has some work to do to convince me the bulls can retake control of market direction. I remain skeptical longer term (bearish), but neutral in the short term.

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  5. #6831

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    So, the bulls are making a run back toward the 200 dma on both charts.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png


    Momentum is rising. Breadth is rising (still negative). My intermediate term system is negative, but improving.


    The OEX is neutral this evening, but the CBOE is very bullish, which is bearish for Friday. NAAIM came in less bearish, but they are not jumping on this rally. The caution flag appears to be remain out for that crew.


    I am looking for price to test resistance at the 200 dma. I am leaning bearish for Friday, but for now it looks like a bottom is in. The question is, how much upside can we expect from here?


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  7. #6832

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Last week, the bulls managed to find support near the 1280 area on the DWCPF and 2625 on the S&P 500. Price retraced a sizeable portion of previous losses, but the 200 dma has not been tested as yet. Friday closed on a down note heading into the new week and it promises to be a possible big one with the mid-term elections on tap for Tuesday.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum is still rising, but paused on Friday. Breadth is still negative, but fighting to turn back up. My intermediate term system remains negative, but improving.


    NAAIM came in neutral last week. This group is looking more tentative the past 2 or 3 weeks. The options are looking neutral heading into Monday. TSP Talk got bulled up after last week's rally and that may be a problem for the market given NAAIM's caution.


    The mid-term elections make next week difficult to assess because the market is likely to react to the results come Wednesday. I am neutral as a result. Even though the bulls have turned the market up in recent days, the market remains very vulnerable to the downside.

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  9. #6833

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Just a quick post this evening. Today's action had little effect on the current technical picture. The options have not yet posted and it's much later than usual for that post. Tomorrow's action may be similar to today. I am interested to see how the market reacts to the mid-term results, which will be Wednesday. I remain neutral short-term, but bearish longer term.

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  11. #6834

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market was up and down again today, but mostly on the green side of the neutral line. The end of day ramp higher was interesting. Will we see carry over on Wednesday?

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum is still rising, but that 200 dma remains untouched. Breadth went neutral from negative. The OEX is bearish for Wednesday, while the CBOE is neutral.

    I am leaning bearish for Wednesday, largely because the OEX is bearish. I don't want to read too much more into the market. Mid-terms are upon us. We'll see how it goes in the morning.

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  13. #6835

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said I was leaning bearish largely because the OEX was leaning that way. But I also said I didn't want to read too much into the market because of mid-terms as the results could influence market action.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Yeah, they did that. The major averages soared for some impressive gains. Momentum went more vertical. Breadth flipped positive. Price on the S&P 500 shot and closed well past its 200 dma. The 50 dma is now in range. The DWCPF has yet to test its 200 dma despite decent gains.

    This kind of one-sided action usually means more of the same in the days following. I suspect the 50 dma will get tested on the S&P 500 and the DWCPF will eventually test its 200 dma.

    The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is bullish, which is bearish. I would not read too much into the options right now. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

    Now, from a technical perspective this market looks primed for more gains. And maybe that's exactly what we'll see. But it's very interesting that the Attorney General resigned right after the mid-terms. This is not an insignificant event given the rancor in political circles. While I can't predict political outcomes, we could still see some volatility as these uncertain events unfold.

    I am bullish for now, but not a comfortable bull.

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  15. #6836

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After Wednesday's rocket shot, Thursday's action saw a moderate pullback. That's not unusual after a big rally and actually helps maintain the bullish case for now.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png


    Breadth dipped a bit, but remains bullish. TRIN and TRINQ closed on the higher side, which is bullish for Friday. The options are neutral. NAAIM is also neutral. They are not falling over themselves to get long, but they aren't bearing up either. Caution remains in play for this group of smart money managers. That means we shouldn't get complacent.


    Futures are pointing lower this evening, but that could change by morning. I am neutral for Friday.

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  17. #6837

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Friday saw a weak ending in a week that saw gains of over 2% in the C fund, but only 0.17% and 0.23% in the S and I funds. That's not a sign of a strong market.
    Remember, I said that NAAIM was not taking big risks on the long side (or short).

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 tagged its 200 dma and bounced. The DWCPF has yet to close back over its 200 dma. One chart seems at least tentatively bullish, but the other is still bearish. Both appear to be making a reverse head and shoulders pattern.

    The options are bullish for Monday. NAAIM is neutral. TSP Talk is overly bullish and I'm taking that as bearish given NAAIM's caution. Breadth is back to neutral.

    For the new week, I'm neutral to modestly bearish. There are plenty of signs that this market is struggling. An upside surprise can happen in market's like this one, however.

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  19. #6838

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Bullish options weren't enough to keep the market afloat on Monday as price fell hard across the major averages.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png


    Price on the S&P 500 fell through its 200 dma with no hint of support. Momentum is falling. Breadth is now negative again. The options remain bullish, but only modestly. TRIN and TRINQ closed at high levels, which is bullish for Tuesday.


    Based on the indicators, the odds favor a bounce Tuesday. But this market is in trouble again. Another drop means a test of the lows becomes more likely.

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  21. #6839

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As I anticipated yesterday, the market bounced. The problem for the bulls however, was that the gains evaporated by the close.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Losses were contained, but it was not bullish action. Breadth remains negative. The options are now neutral.


    The bulls are in trouble if they can't mount an upside attack to recapture at least the 200 dma. The 50 dma is almost ready to have a negative cross through the 200 dma on the DWCPF. Certainly, the technical picture is getting more bearish. NAAIM (smart money) was showing cautious respect of this market while the TSP Talk survey (dumb money) was bulled up. Maybe sentiment matters again? Bulls have been trained for years now to buy the dip. Just sayin'.

    I'm neutral for Wednesday.

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  23. #6840

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls continued their slide on Wednesday. It sure looked early on like they might get some losses back, but rallies are getting sold right now.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price crept a bit closer to a possible retest of the previous lows. Momentum is still falling. Breadth remains negative and falling.


    The OEX is neutral this evening. The CBOE is bearish, which is bullish for Thursday. TRIN is neutral, but TRINQ closed very low which is bearish for Thursday.


    I have mixed indicators for market direction on Thursday, but the short term trend is down. NAAIM reports late in the morning.


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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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