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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6817

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by shitepoke View Post
    CH,
    yer talkin' watch it play out...so what do you do. Is yer money on the sidelines...You used to say go long. What'er ya doin' now. We all know that its our money...our risk but it sure is nice to watch/read/listen to someone with yer experience/time in the game...I personally went bankrupt last year and cant afford a prime service and i damn well, as most folk around here do, appreciate readin' yer stuff whether we choose to run with it or not so "keep on chooglin" as the Creedance song would say.
    EJJ
    When I say "watch it play out" it's because I don't have a good feel for where it's going. This is a battle at the top of the food chain for control of this market. And both sides want it to come down, but on their respective terms. As far as I'm concerned, it's not a matter of "if" it comes down, but when and how deep. Central Bank markets are not people markets, they are rigged for the benefit of those at the top. They would rather the rest of us eat dirt. I've been in the G fund most of the year and have no intention of leaving.

    I post on this board because I actually care about people like me who have families and just want a decent shot at putting together a financial nest egg. But the game is rigged. Seriously rigged. The President has warned us himself over the past 2 years or so.

    I have been saying I'm longer term bearish for a little while now, but I post short term stuff when I think there's still time for those that like to gamble. I don't have the stomach for the risk I see in this market, but if my analysis helps others, I'm happy.

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  3. #6818

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thank you for your posts. They are greatly appreciated!

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  5. #6819

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I mentioned yesterday that whipsaws may be an issue now that volatility has picked up and today's action was proof of that as price fell rather hard only to recover as the trading day advanced. By the close, the indexes were relatively flat. At face value, it's bullish action.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Not much change in the charts today. The options are on the bearish side this evening. Breadth ticked lower just a bit and still remains negative.

    I think the bulls have the advantage in the short term, but the bearish options suggest weakness on Thursday. Price is well above its lows from last week, but can price continue to recover? It's still got a long way to go to get back to its October high.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. I'm especially interested in seeing how they are positioned this week and into next.

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  7. #6820

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    On Wednesday, I said the options were looking bearish and that we might be in for another bout of selling. That was exactly what we got.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 closed right at its 200 dma, which so far is a successful test of support. But price on the DWCPF has not done the same. I also note that some of the markets around the globe are showing signs of stress. The Shanghai is one of them. These markets are all tied together to some extent, so we could be in the beginning stages of a domino effect. Yes, you can argue a bullish case too. But I am taking into consideration more than just technical indicators, which I don't do often. Central Bank markets are not designed to go on and on to the upside. And this bull market is certainly old enough to give way to a bear. We aren't there yet, but I think the scenario is more plausible than many might think.

    The OEX is neutral this evening. The CBOE is leaning bullish. NAAIM got less bearish, but did not get overly bulled up either. I think many of them saw a decline coming, got short, and took profits. Now, they may be taking a wait and see approach by straddling the market.

    Breadth fell and remains negative.

    Overall, this market just doesn't look healthy at all. It could still recover, but there is a lot of headwinds fighting the bull now, not the least of which is age. If you're listening to the rhetoric by the central banks and the administration for the past few weeks, they appear to be getting ready to place blame for a market collapse. Just sayin'.

    For Friday, the market may try to bounce once more from this latest bout of selling pressure. With elections on the horizon, anything can happen. Markets can be used to drive political agendas. I remain bearish.

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  9. #6821

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Weakness continued on Friday, which pretty much wiped out the rally at the beginning of the week.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 closed right at its 200 dma to end the week. Price on the DWCPF is not far from its previous low. Momentum has turned slightly to the downside. It's the DWCPF I'm more interested in as it's representative of a much larger portion of the market overall and if it's not doing well (and it's not) that speaks volumes for the health of the market overall.

    Breadth has turned back down. The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is showing a very bearish reading, which is technically bullish. But in this market, that may or may not be the case. NAAIM is neutral as is TSP Talk.

    Futures have opened up decidedly lower this evening. That could dissipate by morning (or go even more red).

    We could bounce once more, but that won't change my bearish disposition. Another shot lower that holds will not be bullish and may serve to entice more money to seek shelter as support levels break once again. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's see how Monday goes first. I'm bearish.

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  11. #6822

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was another back and forth day, but one which ended up on the negative side for some of the indexes.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Nothing dramatic today, but price on the S&P 500 broke the 200 dma support line again. The good news was that price did not test the lows, so maybe the index is forming a higher low? Price on the DWCPF is knocking on the door of its previous low. If it doesn't hold, it won't bode well for the market overall. That index is still well below its 200 dma.

    The OEX is bullish this evening, but the CBOE is too, which is bearish. Breadth fell again today.

    The slope is getting more slippery for the bulls, but they can still mount a comeback at this point. It better be soon, or that slope may get more vertical.


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  13. #6823

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was an interesting day Tuesday. Stocks plummeted out the gate for some heavy losses (more than 2%). As the trading day played out, price caught a bid and fought back to near even before falling into the close for moderate losses on the day. It could have been much worse for the bulls.

    I don't think it was an organic retrace either. This was a battle to keep the market from total meltdown. The PPT comes to mind. I haven't mentioned that element of the market in years. So, I think it would be premature to assume a bottom is in given the continued deterioration in some of the indicators.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 hit fresh lows, but bounced back enough to close higher than its low from last week. Yeah, that's bullish at face value. But look at the DWCPF. Price closed at a fresh low. This index represents a much larger segment of the market. The bounce in this index may be bullish to some, but that doesn't explain breadth's continued plunge. We saw for many months and even years how breadth was in synch with market action. Now, it's falling instead of rising. That's not an indicator to be ignored. It doesn't guarantee a larger sell-off, but it supports the possibility of one.

    The options look neutral to modestly bullish for Wednesday.

    Yes, anytime you have this much selling pressure and large retracement, you generally can expect more upside follow through. The question is, if we get it will it hold? I remain bearish.

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  15. #6824

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Today's market debacle should have gotten the bull's attention. I have been saying for some time that it's not a question of "if" the market sells down, but when and how deep. It's not rocket science, but predicting exactly when it will occur is not generally gleaned from charts. Oh, there are those that will say you can see it, but most of the time it's after the market has already declined by 5% and perhaps much more. The market goes up on an escalator but comes down in an elevator. This is what Central Banks do. They are not designed to go up indefinitely, but to implode (again, by design) and at some point to allow them to reload once more. They are the ones that generally make the money, not us. If you understand how they operate, you can better understand how risk goes up the longer a bull market goes.

    But it won't matter this time, because I am betting the banks are going to be put out business permanently in the months ahead. I don't have a timeline on that either, but I'm thinking in a year or so. A lot of truth will be coming out about the banks and many other topics down the road. Things are going to change and probably in dramatic fashion. Stay tuned.

    Let's get back to my regular post.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Yeah, that one left a mark. We have long, red candlesticks with the low coming near or at the close. Momentum is plunging. Both charts are oversold, but are likely going to be much more oversold in the weeks ahead. Pops to the upside are likely to occur, but I'm now fairly sure the risk is to the downside overall.

    The OEX and CBOE are both bearish this evening. Breadth is plunging. NAAIM reports tomorrow. Germany's Deutsche Bank plunged today as well. That's a significant global bank, so that's more confirmation that the dominoes may be starting to fall.

    Buying dips at this point is risky to say the least and TSP is not the best place to make short term bets in a volatile market. It's a shame we can't make money on the downside, only preserve capital in the G fund.

    For Thursday, we can bounce, but it may not hold. They may want to entice bulls back into the market with some upside action and make you think the low is in or keep you in the market with that "deer in the headlight look" thinking we must be at a bottom by now and I just need to hold on for the turn. I can't predict that's how it plays out, but it's not a remote possibility. Risk is very high right now.

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  17. #6825

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said that pops to the upside are likely and we got one today that held, though price closed well off its highs of the day.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The bounce was decent, but did not retrace all of Wednesday's losses. In fact, the DWCPF only retraced about half. That's the index I continue to watch over the S&P 500. I am anticipating that today's rally was a bearish upthrust, though I will tell you there are plenty of pros out there telling folks to buy the dip and that a huge rally is just a matter of time. Really? Does anyone remember 2008? They were pounding the table back then too. Sure, it could happen, but I just don't see it as a high probability. I am see quite the opposite.

    The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM came in bearish and I am seeing even some of the longer-term bulls beginning to waver. This group is giving me some degree of confirmation that this market may be in trouble (in case you didn't already think so).

    Breadth ticked to the upside today, but remains bearish.

    There could be more upside coming, but price is a long, long way from the top. Based on the indicators, I would not bet on a bottom being in at this point. I am neutral for Friday and remain bearish longer term.
    Last edited by coolhand; 10-25-2018 at 05:31 PM.

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  19. #6826

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    not the time to collect wallflowers at golden prices?

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  21. #6827

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    On Friday, I said I was neutral and that I did not think a bottom was near (short term). Friday was down all day as the major averages took out Wednesday's lows intraday, but price bounced back to end the day with significant losses once more.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Wednesday's low was tested and so far it's held, but we could see another test. The averages are oversold. Momentum is falling.


    My intermediate term system is negative. TRINQ is bullish for Monday. The OEX is neutral, but the CBOE is bullish. Interestingly, TSP Talk is almost an even split (neutral). NAAIM is a bit bearish for new week. Breadth turned back down and remains negative.


    If this bull market wasn't so long in the tooth, I'd be inclined to start building a long position, but the bull is on the old side and that raises the downside risk. If you remember 2008, then you know the market has the potential to fall much further (interim rallies notwithstanding). Seasonality turns positive next week and much more so after Thanksgiving, but it is not a lock that following seasonality will be rewarded.

    For next week, the market remains prone to more selling. Significant technical damage has been done and sentiment is not all that bearish. I remain on the sidelines (G fund).

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  23. #6828

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was another wild day for the market. Just as it looked like the bulls might turn this around with significant early gains, the sellers stepped in and sent prices even lower.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Are you seeing a theme here? Price on the DWCPF hit a fresh intra-day low, but bounced enough to close near last Wednesday's close. Price on the S&P 500 closed for a lower low, however. There are long tails on the candlesticks, which generally means a low may be forming. But in this market it may not.

    The OEX is leaning bearish for Tuesday, while the CBOE is modestly bullish. Breadth hit a fresh low on its current downward trajectory. TRINQ is bullish again, which may mean a repeat of Monday's performance, meaning the market starts out higher and the sellers step in bring it back down? Dips are not being bought so much as rallies are being sold right now.

    I am willing to entertain that a low may be forming (intermediate term), given the up/down action, but the path of least resistance right now is down.

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