Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Let me add to my previous post that while I suspect we may get a bounce on Wednesday, this market is generally showing weakness. It is not showing strength despite the S&P 500 being near its highs. It has to be across the market as a whole and with breadth deteriorating, things are getting dicey. Especially as the political theater over the SC nomination process plays out. Is not a trivial issue. It some ways, it's for all the marbles. This sounds bearish, and it might be, but we can never be sure how the market may react to a major news story.

Did you get your popcorn yet? It's almost showtime.

As expected, we bounced today. As has been somewhat typical of late, the market could not hold on to a good portion of its gains.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The DWCPF retraced some of its previous losses, but we can see from the chart it's still a far cry from full recovery. The S&P 500 tested its previous high and was rejected. Still, it remains in spitting distance of making another attempt.

The OEX closed at a very high level today, which is bearish, but it may be too high to take seriously. The CBOE is on the neutral side.

Breadth did not improve and remains negative.

At this point, the market is likely waiting for the SC nomination process to play out before any big moves might occur. I tend to view it as bearish, but I've been around long enough to know that the market doesn't care what I think. We can certainly point to the bearish activity of small caps and negative breadth as justification to be bearish, but that also isn't a lock on the short-term future for the market. Longer term, I remain bearish.

Until the SC vote takes place, this market may chop around. It will be interesting to see how the high OEX reading plays into Thursday's action.

Obviously, the bearish OEX on Wednesday was indeed bearish and the market plunged. Remember, breadth is deteriorating. That's hard for the market to overcome.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The S&P 500 fell hard, but actually closed well off its lows. The DWCPF, not so much. Momentum is falling. Breadth is plunging.

The OEX is neutral this evening. The CBOE is bullish. Another bounce on tap?

TRIN is at a very low level, which is bearish. TRINQ is on the neutral side.

It's a somewhat mixed picture for tomorrow, but the market appears to be in trouble, so even if we bounce, a low may not be in. And there is a remote(?) possibility that things may fall apart in the days or weeks ahead. It's a just a possibility at this point as it may not happen for some months yet, but I am convinced it will happen eventually.

Friday's action may be starting to get the bull's attention. Then again, given the TSP Talk and NAAIM sentiment remain very bullish, maybe not.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Hmmm, when the market is obviously in trouble and sentiment remains bullish, that's often a prescription for more pain.

Momentum is falling hard. Breadth is falling hard. The S&P 500 tested its 50 dma and bounced on Friday, which is good, but will it hold? The DWCPF didn't hold and has been plunging for several days since breaking the same key average. The 200 dma beckons on that chart. I do note that price closed well off its lows, but the index was still down hard. RSI is now oversold on that chart. TRINQ closed very high on Friday, which is bullish for Monday. The OEX is neutral, but the CBOE closed very high, which is bullish. However, the CBOE, which should be viewed as a contrarian indicator, has often been in synch with the market the past year or two, so it may be bearish under the circumstance.

So, we have some significant technical damage; especially with the DWCPF. Bonds are going crazy too. Sentiment is not showing fear (the ones I watch, anyway). This is not a bullish picture. But some key averages may still provide support, so there's some hope for the bulls.

The geopolitical sphere is supercharged right now and I am pretty darn sure we're going to be seeing some significant events over the weeks ahead. Is that why the market is selling off? I would not doubt it. And it may be worse (maybe a lot worse), but I am not predicting it. Just pointing out that it could happen. The market is due a major correction and it's still early October.

We got a rally today, but it came from much lower.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price on the S&P 500 probed under the 50 dma again, but managed to close above it. Price on the DWCPF tested its 200 dma and bounced. Interestingly, the DWCPF closed well off its lows on Friday and still gapped lower on Monday.

The options are neutral this evening. My intermediate term system remains positive by 1 signal. TRIN closed low, which is bearish for Tuesday. Breadth went sideways and remains bearish for the moment.

Things remain dicey for the bulls. Both charts show price testing key averages. Will they hold? I'm neutral for Tuesday.

We got a mixed, choppy day on Tuesday. Is the market taking a breather? Is the selling subsiding?

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price on the S&P 500 is sitting pretty much right at its 50 dma. Price on the DWCPF closed even lower, but remains above the 200 dma. Momentum has not turned up yet. Breadth dipped a bit more and remains bearish.

The options are neutral this evening.

The market looks like it may be bottoming. In a normal market, I'd be more inclined to look for a rally soon and maybe we'll get just that, but I don't view this market as normal. I'd not be making big bets either way at this point. I remain neutral heading into Wednesday.

The levee broke today. Is the dam next? The market started the session weak and never looked back as price probed lower all the way into the close.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Volume was elevated. The 50 dma on the S&P 500 was crushed. The 200 dma on the DWCPF was annihilated. It doesn't look good for the bulls, but the 200 dma has not been broken on the S&P 500. The action suggests it just may get tested. Futures are already red; though not by a lot.

The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is bullish (from a contrarian perspective). Breadth is falling hard. Breadth has not often fallen as hard as it is right now. More to come?

I've been warning for a few months (on and off) that this market is going to collapse at some point, but I could not predict with any precision when it might happen. It may be in progress now, though I am sure there are those out there that will say a low should be in or very close. That's possible, but I am not optimistic.

I am sure glad I listened to your warnings awhile back and got back in the G fund. You saved me a lot of money! I really appreciate your post and look forward to them every day.
It seems the small caps were the canary in the coal mine after all!

Originally Posted by coolhand

The levee broke today. Is the dam next? The market started the session weak and never looked back as price probed lower all the way into the close.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Volume was elevated. The 50 dma on the S&P 500 was crushed. The 200 dma on the DWCPF was annihilated. It doesn't look good for the bulls, but the 200 dma has not been broken on the S&P 500. The action suggests it just may get tested. Futures are already red; though not by a lot.

The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is bullish (from a contrarian perspective). Breadth is falling hard. Breadth has not often fallen as hard as it is right now. More to come?

I've been warning for a few months (on and off) that this market is going to collapse at some point, but I could not predict with any precision when it might happen. It may be in progress now, though I am sure there are those out there that will say a low should be in or very close. That's possible, but I am not optimistic.

I know your a Christian so I thought I'd pass this along. Back in 2008 the Lord (Holy Spirit) impressed on me to take my money out of the market because he was going to judge America, Weeks later it dropped. The Lord told me that again on 9/27/18 and I took it out. Not sure where it's going but i'm staying out for a while. I know a lot of people will scoff and point to other things, but I know what I heard. From some comments I'm reading this took a lot of people by surprise and they have no explanation except the rising bond yields and interest rates, but they also say it doesn't account for it completely.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

Dang, what a nasty day. I think Mr. Market has been looking for an excuse to correct. I have a hard time buying that it was caused by Powell’s comments last week. At any rate, I’m retired and have been through many of these corrections before so I’ll keep my allocation of 50% in CSI and 50% in G and will remain that way for the long term. Thanks CH for your continued market analysis.

Originally Posted by tom4jean

I know your a Christian so I thought I'd pass this along. Back in 2008 the Lord (Holy Spirit) impressed on me to take my money out of the market because he was going to judge America, Weeks later it dropped. The Lord told me that again on 9/27/18 and I took it out. Not sure where it's going but i'm staying out for a while. I know a lot of people will scoff and point to other things, but I know what I heard. From some comments I'm reading this took a lot of people by surprise and they have no explanation except the rising bond yields and interest rates, but they also say it doesn't account for it completely.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

Your personal experience is real and I would listen to that voice over any chart. Since being born again, my discernment has dramatically increased. I pray every day and ask the Holy Spirit to light my path and he has.