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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6781

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Still no serious moves on the charts below.

    DWCPF.png
    S&P 500.png

    However, the DWCPF is retesting support. The S&P 500 largely held its position.

    I note that bonds are getting hit the past month or so. Are they telling us something? At this point, I won't read too much into it, but it should be watched.

    Breadth is back neutral. The options are neutral. TRIN closed at a very low level on Wednesday, which is bearish for Thursday for that exchange.

    Things look dicey to me now, but this market does a really good job of keeping up bullish appearances. Certainly, price is fine as the index charts still look bullish. Even when I want to be bearish, I can't. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

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  3. #6782

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Boom! The S&P 500 powers its way to a fresh high. Just when things were looking a bit iffy.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    On the other hand, the DWCPF still hasn't retraced its losses from Monday. But, it's still not far from its high either.

    The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM came in a bit less bullish, but bullish just the same. Breadth flipped positive again, but not in dramatic fashion given the rally.

    So, the beat continues. Or should I say the bear beat down. Long is still the way to be.

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  5. #6783

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I can't seem to upload charts this evening, so it looks like be limited to narrative.

    It was a mixed week last week, with the C fund up moderately, while the S fund was down moderately. The I fund soared by almost 3%.

    Heading into the new week, the options are neutral. NAAIM is bullish. TSP Talk remains very bullish. Breadth is bullish, but tracking sideways.

    Overall, the indicators remain mixed, but we know that this bull market has been bullet proof for quite some time. If NAAIM is bullish, and they are, being long is the best play.

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  7. #6784

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    I can't seem to upload charts this evening
    I had a problem posting an image using Chrome today, but it worked with Firefox. Not sure why, but just an FYI.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  9. #6785

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    I had a problem posting an image using Chrome today, but it worked with Firefox. Not sure why, but just an FYI.
    I was and still am using Firefox. I tried 3x and they wouldn't upload. The problem still exists this morning.

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  11. #6786

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I'm still unable to upload files this evening.

    The market started out the week on the downside. The S&P 500 continues to hold up very well and remains in spitting distance of new highs. Momentum has turned down a bit. The DWCPF is testing support again. Price is not far above its rising 50 dma. The chart still looks darn bullish overall, however.

    The options are a bit bearish this evening, but not enough for any concern. Breadth remains in a sideways track and is neutral.

    Nothing has changed. It still appears that long is the way to go.


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  13. #6787

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was choppy action today with a mixed close.

    The options are bearish this evening. Breadth is negative, but still tracking sideways. Technical indicators look flat overall.

    I am looking for selling tomorrow, given the options, but I'm still not looking for much. The bear has nothing on the bull to this point.

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  15. #6788

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH,

    Thanks always for your analysis of the markets. Its much appreciated by those of us that like to monitor market conditions from both a technical and fundamental perspective. It’s good to see posts like these in the forum’s “Latest Posts” list vice some the other stuff being posted there. Have a plate of virtual Hot Wings on me. Cheers!

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  17. #6789

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I was looking lower for Wednesday and while it was mixed for a good portion of the trading day, the final hour brought out the bears and price fell to its lows of the day into the close.

    The rate hike may have been a factor as the news was sold.

    For Thursday, the OEX P/C is very bearish, while the CBOE is neutral. My intermediate term system is near sell territory. Price on the S fund closed under its 50 dma as well as horizontal support. The S&P 500 remains in better shape with limited technical damage. While the selling hammered small caps, the DWCPF isn't exactly falling apart just yet. It's just under pressure.

    Breadth flipped negative on Wednesday's action.

    For Thursday, I think we see more selling pressure, but the technical indicators suggest a bottom may be near as more of them are looking negative. Keep in mind that eventually this thing will fall apart, but predicting that event is a lesson in frustration. I marvel at how long the bull market has been sustained to this point.

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  19. #6790

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I thought we might see some carry over selling from Wednesday, especially given the bearish OEX reading, but instead the market rallied early on. However, much of the advance was retraced in the afternoon.

    This evening, the options are neutral. NAAIM did not change much and remains bullish. Breadth is neutral, but can flip negative again easily.

    So, not much has really changed. Selling pressure remains limited. The bull market remains intact.

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  21. #6791

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Last week, I was on vacation and posting from my laptop, which for whatever reason would not let me upload charts. Now, I'm back home on my regular computer and had no trouble trouble with the charts.

    All 3 TSP stock funds took moderate losses last week.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 looks like it's just taking a pause prior to yet another up-leg. Of course, I don't know that for certain, but that's been the trend. Price on the DWCPF is fighting to retake its 50 dma. Momentum is still falling. It's still not a bearish chart, longer term.

    Our TSP Talk sentiment survey remains at a very bullish level. NAAIM is bullish too. The options look a bit bearish for Monday, but I'd not bet on much selling.

    Breadth is positive, but still tracking sideways. My intermediate term system is a hair from going negative.

    My read for next week is that the market may find a way to turn back up. The Supreme Court proceedings could shake things up, but someone wants this market higher. Can political fallout cause enough turmoil to force a sell-off? It's certainly possible, but the bulls probably want someone to prove it to them.

    Have some popcorn at the ready. It could be an interesting week.

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  23. #6792

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was an interesting trading day to start the week as stocks were mixed on the day. Small caps continue to drag the S fund down (it closed moderately lower), while the S&P 500 actually came close to testing its previous high and closed for a gain.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Big difference in the daily action between the two charts today. It's not bullish when small caps are under-performing. Price on the DWCPF closed well under the 50 dma, so the technical damage is starting to build on this chart.

    The options are neutral this evening. Breadth flipped negative today, but is not falling apart. My intermediate term system remains positive, but TRIN and TRINQ closed on the low side, which suggests weakness for Tuesday.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes