Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Dutchy

Thank you for posting this article, CH, I hate the HFT, and had not seen this article. Maybe there is hope about returning some confidence to the Markets ??

It will take time. That's assuming the powers that be care about trust and confidence.

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Looks like the gap got filled at the open. I'm anticipating some upside now, but with seasonality weak, volatility and chop may be what we get.

On another note, bonds continue to get hammered. Those gaps may not get filled soon either as MACD continues to plumb new depths. RSI is oversold as well. The big question to me isn't when do we bounce? I'd rather know where all this money is going, as the bond market is many times larger than the stock market and the stock market is under some measure of pressure as well. I'm thinking when this market is ready, we could see some serious upside action sometime down the road. That's my thought anyway.

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Nice charting and commentary! I hope it is right!

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Well, the market has now retraced its two day rally last week and price has closed not far off last week's low. But price has not fallen back below the 50 dma just yet. Still, given futures are down moderately right now, I'd wager that we'll test May 6th's intraday low today. We could even see a lower low, but where we close will be key as to what happens next. Tomorrow is OPEX, which should be in the bulls favor. There's a lot going on in the global market and one of the big issues weighing on sentiment is rising yields. And the Nikkei fell more than 6% last night. Some of my indicators are on sells right now, but not all have confirmed. But it's getting close. And seasonality remains negative. I took a preliminary look at the autotracker and there is only modest changes in stock exposure for either the Top 50 or the Total Tracker. No help there. I may be looking to lighten up by tomorrow if for no other reason than to reduce risk.

Originally Posted by coolhand

Tomorrow is OPEX

I thought next week was OptionsEX?

http://www.cboe.com/AboutCBOE/xcal2013.pdf

Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues

I thought next week was OptionsEX?

http://www.cboe.com/AboutCBOE/xcal2013.pdf

That's what happens when you get up at 3:30 in the morning and you haven't given the coffee time to kick in before you post something.

This morning I was feeling a bit bearish as my indicators were pushing the envelope in terms downside risk. We needed to turn soon or things might go from dicey to outright bearish. I think today's action helped make a case that this bull is not dead.

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Today's candlestick would seem to imply the low from last week will hold for at least the short term. It's the kind of action that suggests we'll get some follow through to the upside as the 50 dma held yet again. But it's not just the action in the equities market that got my attention.

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Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG), which our F fund approximates, is one of the largest ETFs around. And it holds bonds across the spectrum; Treasury notes, Treasury bonds, corporate bonds, utilities, U.S. agencies and more. So it's not a sector fund. It jumped 0.49/share today. That also makes me think the low may be in for now. The turn in MACD and RSI is encouraging.

But it's only one day, albeit a very positive one. But it certainly gives reason for the bulls to be optimistic. The only problem with that is if sentiment jumps to the bullish side too quickly. But I'll be looking for some follow through tomorrow just the same.

I also note that FAX, a global bond fund that I own and have posted here before, turned higher by 2.55% after getting hammered for almost a month. So the jump appears to be broad based.

There's a fair number of stocks that have fallen enough over the past few weeks to begin looking attractive again. Here's a few that I'm following:

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Eli Lilly Co. may now be finding support around its 200 dma. But its technical indicators have not turned yet. It pays a 3.7% quarterly dividend. I'm still watching for entry into this one, but I do consider it a longer term buy, so I'm not overly concerned if I don't hit the bottom. Once the technicals appear to be turning, I expect to add this one to my portfolio.

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Northwest Natural Gas has been a volatile stock. Playing the peaks and troughs over the past few months could have been very profitable, but we can see some large candlesticks in both directions, which can make it tricky for short term traders. I do think it's attractively priced right now, although its technicals have not turned yet either. MACD remains very weak and RSI remains moderately negative. But it seems to be finding support in the high $42 area. It pays a 4.25% quarterly dividend.

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I posted this stock early in the year and it was a big winner for me. I sold it in the mid $35 area back in April, but I've been watching it for reentry. It's a utility and that sector has been struggling since early May. But it may be turning as those dividend yields have been rising again. While MACD and RSI are decidedly negative, they may now be turning.

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I've already purchased PPL. I bought it in the low $29s. It's another utility. MACD and RSI may be turning now. PPL pays a quarterly dividend just north of 5% currently.

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I've not posted this one before, but like so many other issues, this one has been beaten down pretty good the past few weeks. MACD has not turned yet, but the action has been positive the last two trading days. RSI is still very weak. I'm not ready to buy it quite yet, but not because it isn't attractively priced. I just want to see those indicators turn up a bit more before I add this one to my portfolio. It pays a 4.5% dividend.

I don't generally trade stocks in short time frames unless they run hard and become overbought. I prefer to hold them longer term as investments. That's why I focus on dividends, but I also try to buy them at attractive prices so that I can hopefully realize some nice capital gains too.

It's a good time to acquire bargains - they won't last long. Get'em while they are in waiting. I'm moving back into farm machinery.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

It's a good time to acquire bargains - they won't last long. Get'em while they are in waiting. I'm moving back into farm machinery.

I can just see you on a John Deere farm tractor plowing a field of your crops.

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While the stock market has seen some measure of a correction of late, the bond market has seen a greater sell off in general and that also presents opportunities in portfolio diversification. I've mentioned FAX more than once, and while that one is still very much on a buy, here's another bond fund that is attractive right now. Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund is a closed end fund that appears to have found a bottom. But whether that remains true or not, it currently throws off a monthly dividend of about 7.5%. Price is well below the 200 dma right now. For longer term investing, this fund is looking good for both dividend generation and capital gain opportunity. The ex-dividend date is tomorrow, the 19th of June, so now may be a great time to add this one to ones portfolio.