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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #8209

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was a rather choppy affair today that culminated in a mixed close. The biggest takeaway for me on today's action is that resistance remains an obstacle.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Not much to read into today's charts. Price is bumping up against resistance and so far it's holding. Momentum is rather neutral.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth ebbed higher just a tad and remains bullish. Unfortunately, it would not take a ton of selling pressure to flip this signal negative again. Just sayin'.

    So, nothing has changed so far. Resistance continues to hold, but be we do have a bullish NAAIM, which suggests the market will break through to the upside sooner or later. It is not lost on me all the bad news out there; especially inflation as well as Fed jawboning. These are the current headlines to drive the wall of worry. Don't get wrong, these things are issues, but trying to leverage them for profit (timing wise) is quite difficult. That's why I point to NAAIM. But even they can wrong at times.

    I am not sure if the market is going to punch through to the upside or head back down. The smart money is betting on the upside. That is usually a reasonable indicator to help make decisions.

    I remain bullish the S&P 500 and neutral to modestly bullish the DWCPF. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

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  3. #8210

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Okay, the latest NAAIM reading shows they are backing off their bullishness. They are now largely neutral to slightly bullish. I anticipate a pullback at any time. I am now going neutral.

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  5. #8211

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The chop was gone today as the bulls made it a one-way street as the averages closed out with solid gains on the day.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the both charts broke through resistance and closed with fresh all-time highs. Momentum is rising as is strength, but it's too soon to get excited about the upside.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth spiked to the upside and remains bullish.

    Now, the fly in the ointment. NAAIM backed off their bullishness by a good bit. They didn't go bearish, but appear to have taken some profits as they are now collectively neutral to modestly bullish. Interesting. Do they know something? We're going to know soon enough. I'm not expecting anything dramatic, but I do think some selling may be coming our way soon. Now, having said that, futures are soaring. Something smells fishy to me.

    I am now neutral. With NAAIM going neutral after fresh all-time highs and with futures soaring to boot, it would seem something may be about to happen, but I have no idea what. I just have this funny feeling with what I am seeing.

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  7. #8212

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After a week of selling the week before last, the bulls got busy and sent price on the S&P and DWCPF to new all-time highs last week. In fact, the DWCPF is now up 5 days straight after finally breaking through a multi-month trading channel.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The charts speak for the themselves as price slashed through resistance to close out the week with solid gains. And the DWCPF led the S&P, which is what we want to see if we're bullish (or want to be bullish).

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth ticked higher on Friday and remains bullish.

    Our TSP Talk sentiment survey came in very bullish. I have said several times in the past that I don't treat our sentiment survey as a contrarian indicator. Especially if we're bullish in a bull market. Interestingly, NAAIM scaled back their bullishness to a neutral to modestly bullish reading. That still has me wondering if some selling is near. It isn't unusual after a change in NAAIM reading for the market to continue moving in its current short term direction for a day or two before reversing, so maybe we see some selling early next week. I also said I'm not looking for anything dramatic even if we get some selling. The problem is, we are bullish here on TSP Talk so the downside may not be much at all (if we get any short term).

    I went neutral after the last NAAIM reading and I'm going to remain neutral for the time being. Let's see what the new week brings.

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  9. #8213

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The new week started out mixed as Monday saw the S&P rise modestly, while the DWCPF fell modestly.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Both charts remain bullish. But with a neutral to modestly bullish NAAIM is some selling still on tap? We got some in the DWPCF, but is there more? Futures are rather flat right now.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth fell and that may be a tell for more selling, but I can't be sure.

    I'm going to remain neutral for now.

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  11. #8214

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls started the morning session with gains right out the gate, but then the market chopped around for an hour or so before choppy lower the rest of the day. The close was mixed once again with the S&P posting a modest gain, while the DWCPF posted a modest loss.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So far, this market is showing resilience even with the modest selling in the DWCPF. It feels rather toppy to me, however. Upward momentum is positive, but not inspiring.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth fell once more, but the signal still remains bullish.

    It's been 3 trading days since we got the rather neutral NAAIM reading and I suppose that given the market has been mixed the past couple of trading days, we could say that to this point they were largely accurate. But if you are looking for a buying opportunity, you probably are not liking this resilience. But the week isn't over and the action seems tired, so maybe more weakness manifests. I remain neutral.

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  13. #8215

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Both the bulls and the bears have something to be happy about depending on the index you follow. The S&P made it 3 straight up days at the same time the DWCPF declined 3 days.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So, while the S&P continues to rise, the DWCPF continues to fall, but not enough to cause an serious technical damage (so far).

    NYAD.png


    Breadth ticked higher on the day remains bullish.

    Obviously, the 2 indexes won't continue to move opposite directions forever. A pullback by the S&P remains very possible. I remain neutral.

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  15. #8216

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I keep wondering how far can it go; but, it's still going. i'm 100% G waiting.

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  17. #8217

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Well, NAAIM got more bullish yesterday so I'm staying in. No sense me fighting it.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%


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  19. #8218

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Well, NAAIM got more bullish yesterday so I'm staying in. No sense me fighting it.
    Yes. They got bulled up again. Green flag is out once again.

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  21. #8219

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    So much for the downside and mixed closes. Thursday's trading saw both the S&P and DWCPF post gains.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P appeared to be losing steam until Thursday, when the bulls spiked it to the upside. The DWCPF broke its 3 day losing streak with a somewhat modest gain. Both charts are bullish, but the S&P would seem to be a more favorable index as upward momentum is rising on the S&P, but flat on the DWCPF.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth rose and remains solidly bullish.

    The latest NAAIM reading saw these money managers largely turn off their limited shorts and ramp up their long exposure. The reading is back to bullish.

    When NAAIM went neutral the week before I said I wasn't expecting anything dramatic, but that the possibility for some selling had gone up. We did get some selling, but only in the DWCPF. We'll have to see now if the DWCPF can keep today's reversal going.

    I am moving to bullish on the S&P, but will remain neutral on the DWCPF.

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  23. #8220

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The disparity between the S&P and the DWCPF continued last week, as the S&P soared to fresh all-time highs, while the DWCPF posted a moderate weekly loss. But that statement may be a bit misleading as the DWCPF remains a bullish chart overall and one that could join the S&P in fresh highs should money flows turn toward small caps with more consistency.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Of the 2 charts, it's obvious that the S&P is more bullish. Strength and momentum are rising on the S&P, while at the same time are falling modestly on the DWCPF.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth closed out the week in good shape with the signal still above the rising EMAs.

    As we begin a new trading week, NAAIM is solidly bullish having increased not just their bullish sentiment, but their leverage on the long side. The TSP Talk sentiment remained heavily bulled up.

    I remain bullish on the S&P and neutral on the DWCPF.

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