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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #8077

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    What would that imply with the brokerages I wonder? Sorry still learning.

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  3. #8078

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by joblin20 View Post
    What would that imply with the brokerages I wonder? Sorry still learning.
    Since the emergence of Robinhood and all brokerages going to zero commission trading there has been a massive increase in new accounts and people trading like crazy.
    It's overwhelming the brokerages and has resulted in lots of problems with most of them. From what I've read Interactive Brokers and TD Ameritrade have had the fewest problems.
    If we ever get an all-out crash type of market like we had a year ago it will be more of a problem this time since there are so many new accounts compared to a year ago.

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  5. #8079

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Before I get into my usual post, I want to address something I said last week because I find it interesting and perhaps even instructive. When the TSP Talk survey was released last week, I said the following:

    "The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in bearish this week. That's diametrically opposed to NAAIM. We don't do that often. In fact, as I've stated in past posts, I don't treat our sentiment survey as dumb money. Not when we are collectively aligned to the NAAIM reading as often as we are. But I trust NAAIM more than TSP Talk sentiment reading. Prove me wrong."

    Well now, given how the bears trampled the bulls last week, I have to say that it appears I was proven wrong on who I should trust more. Or at least give equal weight.

    I did say I consider us smart money as far as the survey goes, but as infrequently as we are misaligned with NAAIM, my default is NAAIM, which is why I remained bullish for the week. It's still a judgement call when you are looking at signals that are not in alignment, but in the future I would give more credence to where we stand collectively on TSP Talk.

    Now back to your regularly scheduled program.

    The market gave us what for all the world looked like a pretty good set-up for fresh highs after back-to-back rallies on Tuesday and Wednesday. But then Thursday we got selling in spades and that called into question where this market was really headed. Friday's action was mixed and still a bit volatile. The week saw both the C and S funds shed 2.41% on C and 4.39% on the S fund.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    That puts price back at or near the 50 dma on both charts. Support held (so far). So, we now have a 2nd test. Will it hold? I don't know. Momentum is falling hard. The DWCPF did bounce off its 50 dma, but I can't hang my hat on a bottom with it. More or less the same for the C fund, but price is sitting right on support on that index.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth has now gone bearish, but we've seen this before too, so we can't assume the market is ready to roll over.

    This week's TSP Talk survey is pretty neutral. Although NAAIM was bullish with their reading on Thursday (cautiously so), the action that day may have changed that reading. I warned that the fact the bullishness fell as much as it did, even if they weren't embracing the bearish case, was a potential warning.

    So, all things considered above I am moving from bullish to neutral. The bears haven't proven anything yet (other than they haven't gone away) and we're still in a bull market. But I would not be surprised if this market goes in either direction next week (or both). The volatility may continue. There are games being played (gamestop, etc.), brokerage outages, banking glitches, etc. happening, which gives me pause as well. Both NAAIM and TSP Talk are either neutral or at least showing respect for potential downside. I don't think this is quite the same market right now and I think I have company with that line of thinking.

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  7. #8080

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    DWCPF Feb 2021.png DWCPF Oct 2020 .png

    How much does the February 2021 chart look like October 2020 chart? Hoping we have the same kind of rebound as we did in November of 2020

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  9. #8081

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by flalaw97 View Post
    DWCPF Feb 2021.png DWCPF Oct 2020 .png

    How much does the February 2021 chart look like October 2020 chart? Hoping we have the same kind of rebound as we did in November of 2020
    I think it's entirely possible that the market takes off again, but I can't be absolutely sure of it. At least not just yet. I've been watching for "it's different this time", which of course is why I watch the smart money. If price soars to fresh highs we could see another crazy run to the upside.

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  11. #8082

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    I think it's entirely possible that the market takes off again, but I can't be absolutely sure of it. At least not just yet. I've been watching for "it's different this time", which of course is why I watch the smart money. If price soars to fresh highs we could see another crazy run to the upside.
    What propelled November and December was the anticipation, and then the fruition, of the last Covid relief bill passing in December.

    What will propel this March climb will be the same- IF the Covid relief bill that passed the House is adopted in the Senate, then we should have a remarkable March and into April.

    But if it stalls out, the goose that laid the Golden egg could end up being a cooked goose instead.

    Let us hope Congress is able to reach a deal.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums


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  13. #8083

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    And just like that price is back to resistance, so the volatility remains.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum may be starting to turn. Price certainly bounced hard, but volume was only so-so.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth bounced back into positive territory. While it may be technically bullish again, it is still in a sideways pattern, so like the stock indexes, it has yet to break out again.

    So, we still do not have confirmation of where this market wants to go in the short term. It is still a bull market and the pattern has been fresh highs sooner or later, so maybe that pattern will continue. In the meantime, I remain neutral.

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  15. #8084

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The back and forth action (and volatility) continued today. Price diving into the close certainly doesn't make me bullish for Wednesday.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Not much to say about the charts. Price is in a range now between rising support and overhead resistance. I tend to think the action favors the bulls beyond the short term; mainly because it is a bull market and the bears have not been able to do more than moderate short-term damage.

    NYAD.png

    It's much the same with breadth. It's technically bullish, but moving sideways.

    The late day swoon into the close has me thinking we may see another test of the 50 dma soon, though not necessarily. The selling has been more persistent than we've seen in some time, but the bulls have countered much of it to a relative standstill. I'm guessing we will see more of the same tomorrow. I remain neutral.

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  17. #8085

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears made it 2 in a row on Wednesday as price fell back once again.

    SPX.png
    DWCPF.png

    Support at the 50 dma continues to hold. This is more or less the 3 test of support in this area. Momentum is falling. Volume was on the average side.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth, while negative today, wasn't overly negative. The signal did not move lower by much, which is interesting. It's a neutral signal at this point. The 21 EMA is now flat.

    Which way will price eventually break? Well, you should generally go with the trend, which means the break is likely to be up.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain neutral.

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  19. #8086

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM is now bearish in the short term. Neutral beyond the next few days unless something changes. I say this because they aren't heavily beared up. But they did get defensive now for the 2nd week in a row. They are now putting on short positions.

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  21. #8087

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Has that proverbial 'switch' been flipped?
    100% S

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  23. #8088

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Has that proverbial 'switch' been flipped?
    In February of last year, the selling was more intense. Volume has not been all that robust so far and the bulls have countered much of the selling, but they appear to be losing ground. Right now, the bears appear to have some measure of an advantage, but will the bulls reverse today's selling? There seems to be an attempt right now to bottom the market, but for how long and how much? I can't say a switch has been flipped. However, the NAAIM reading would certainly appear to support more downside pressure in the days ahead. Maybe the switch gets flipped then? Maybe.

    I am now short term bearish (from neutral).

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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