Is this a bull trap perhaps?
XRP making big moves. Connected? I think so.
Is this a bull trap perhaps?
Regarding silver...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cm...ct-set-explode
The bulls bounced the market Monday to start out the week on the positive side.
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The biggest takeaway I see here is that the 50 dma held (so far) on the S&P 500. That certainly doesn't mean the market is out of the woods; especially when we see headlines regarding short squeezes that are forcing the powers that be to shut down trading and change the rules to protect themselves (not you). One thing I am certain of is that we'll see more headlines like these down the road. And I don't think we'll be waiting long either.
And the silver short squeeze is more dangerous as the big banks are heavily short that metal. Physical metal is almost gone and that is very likely going to break the paper/physical price point (spot). Isn't it interesting how physical disappeared very quickly (over the weekend in many cases). If the banks lose control of the price of silver (I'm betting they will), their shorts are going to get infinitely expensive. How might this affect the market? It won't be a positive thing, that's for sure.
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Breadth flipped positive on today's positive action.
So, as I've described above, it's going to be interesting to see how things play out in the days/weeks ahead. Risk remains elevated in my opinion. I remain modestly bearish.
So, metals are now falling hard, XRP has reversed a lot, the market is back in rally mode...I can see that this market is going to keep everyone guessing. There's something for everyone right now, bulls and bears.
The bulls made it 2 in a row on Tuesday. Much of the previous losses have now been erased and price is not far from the peak now. However, there may be resistance as price tries to move higher.
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We've seen this before too. Every bout of weakness of some size gets reversed at some point with new highs eventually being hit. Are we going to see fresh highs again? Let's just say I'm not betting against the bulls after today's rally. Momentum is now starting to turn up.
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Breadth also got well in a hurry and is back to a more solid bullish reading.
There are many reasons to be cautious right now. Certainly the bears might take back control, but they might not either. We do have resistance above, but we're still in a bull market. I was leaning bearish given the action in certain market segments, which were not typical market activity (gamestop, silver short squeeze, etc.). We also saw the smart money pull back on their bullishness last week, which meant they saw the potential for selling pressure in the short term. Now, we have 2 solid up-days of action, which in the past has meant new highs were eventually hit.
I am moving back to a neutral stance. Monday's rally was simply a bounce off support. Today's follow up rally now calls into question the bearish argument. Can the bulls now push past resistance? Probably. But I can't get bullish just yet. I'd like to see another day or 2 of action (by then we'll have a fresh NAAIM reading).
The bulls pushed price higher today for the 3rd day in a row. The action was up and down and the gains on the day were somewhat modest.
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Price on the DWCPF closed in the area of its previous all-time high (give or take). Price on the S&P has yet to hit its previous peak. So, we haven't started a new up-leg yet, which means resistance is holding for now.
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Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.
It still remains to be seen if new highs are coming or not. Why should there be any doubt? It was one thing to predict a bull run in mid-November. I largely saw it coming as did NAAIM. I don't have the same confidence now, though I'm not doubting necessarily that it can't happen. I need more evidence. NAAIM reports tomorrow. Let's see where the smart money stands and what futures does heading into tomorrow's open.
I remain neutral.
NAAIM came in a bit less bullish today. I would say they are modestly bullish overall. They are not shorting the market much, but they are not buying with both hands either. There seems to be some degree of skepticism among them, but they are acknowledging that the bull remains alive (that's why they are still long overall).
I suppose we got our confirmation today as to what the market's intent was. Fresh closing all-time highs on the S&P and DWCPF both.
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Momentum is rising. There is a chance that the breakout is a head fake, but that would be a hard sell in this bull market (no pun intended).
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Cumulative breadth is rising quickly and remains bullish.
NAAIM came in a bit less bullish today with an overall reading of what I would call modestly bullish. That's just north of neutral. They are generally not shorting very much (financial suicide), but they are not nearly as bullish as they've been, which tells me that some of these money managers are harboring some reservations. Still, they are bullish overall.
I am shifting modestly bullish myself (from neutral), but as you've heard me say a number of times in the past, I am not complacent. Take the gains while they are offering them, but don't get married to your position. This is not a normal market.
The bulls put up big gains last week, up 4.67% on the C fund and up 7.52% on the S fund.
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Both charts sport fresh all-time highs. Momentum is moving higher.
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Breadth is starting to stretch it out to the upside. The chart is obviously bullish.
The TSP Talk sentiment survey saw participants get bulled up this week after being neutral last week. NAAIM is modestly bullish, but perhaps more important is that they are not showing much inclination to short the market. Just don't forget they are not as bullish as they've been, so we don't want to get complacent.
How high can this market go? That's a question many traders are wondering. It's all about liquidity and we're hearing that liquidity is being injected into the market (to this point). How long it plays out is a guessing game, so we might as well take advantage of the rally while we can. I remain modestly bullish.
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
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