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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7945

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Bill3438 View Post
    Isnít Black Friday a good time to be in the market?
    Historically, the market tends to be weak heading into Thanksgiving and then gets bullish starting on Black Friday.

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  3. #7946

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Is this rally real yet? I said a few days ago that my gut said that the market has the potential to get silly to the upside. I'm not saying it's silly yet, but the market seems to be working on it.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the DWCPF hit another all-time high. The S&P hit a fresh closing high. That index may be finally getting ready to break out to the upside.

    NYAD.png

    Look at cumulative breadth. This chart is working on silly too.

    And we aren't even it the most seasonally positive time of year yet, though we are approaching it. Can "seasonally positive" get more positive than what the DWCPF is already doing? What if it can?

    I remain bullish.

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  5. #7947

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM remains largely unchanged from last week. They are very bullish. Risk remains to the upside; especially smaller caps (S fund).


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  7. #7948

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls had another great week last week. Both the C and I funds posted gains of more than 2% and the S fund almost doubled that at over 4%.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P closed near the top of its trading range. We can see that there are higher lows along the way, so an upside breakout seems to be in the cards. Price on the DWCPF continues an almost relentless push to the upside and it looking incredibly bullish. Many are concerned that this can't last, but trying to time market exhaustion is not an easy thing to do; especially as we enter the most bullish time of the year. As of last Thursday, we certainly don't see the smart money (NAAIM) shying away from being long.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth on the NYSE continues to impress and remains quite bullish.

    The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in heavily bulled up. Don't let that scare you. We have seen our sentiment bulled up for weeks (in the past) without the market diving. And we have NAAIM on our side as well.

    So, what would Forrest Gump say about this market? Maybe "Silly is as silly does"?

    I still highly suspect that this market will get silly to the upside. I wish I could predict that, but I don't have a crystal ball. Just intuition based on what I am seeing.

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  9. #7949

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Letís hope for the best!

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  11. #7950

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thing that scares the heck out of me is the lack of anything solid under "Silly markets"! oh well, Best of luck to us all!

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  13. #7951

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Scout333 View Post
    Thing that scares the heck out of me is the lack of anything solid under "Silly markets"! oh well, Best of luck to us all!
    I have spent many years on an educational journey into the monetary system. I think it would be fair for me to say that I'm not so sure there has ever been anything "solid". It's all smoke and mirrors.

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  15. #7952

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market took a breather today. It was overdue on the DWCPF in particular.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on both charts were down moderately. Volume was elevated. RSI was overbought on the DWCPF and remains overbought even after today's selling. We could see more selling in the short term before a bottom. Looking at the DWCPF we can see that bottoms have been happening quickly the past few weeks.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

    I remain bullish.

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  17. #7953

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I would be happy if the market takes a little breather this week. Then I'm off the lily pad and back into the "S" fund.

    Good luck everybody. I expect another surge once the vaccines get approval for distribution.
    May the force be with us.

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  19. #7954

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It didn't take long for the market to forget Friday's pullback as the major averages started the new week strong. The market gave back some its gains by the close, but closing gains were not insignificant.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 hit a fresh high, while the DWCPF closed near its previous peak.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth remains bullish.

    Nothing has changed. It is obvious that this is a strong bull right now. It is very easy to expect a buying opportunity may come at any time, but bull markets can go further and longer at times than most traders expect. I'm not saying that's what is going to happen here, but it might.

    I remain bullish.

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  21. #7955

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market gave us a mixed day today, with the S&P advancing modestly while the DWCPF pulled back modestly.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 hit another fresh high on average volume. Momentum is rising modestly (just like price). The DWCPF is still overbought based on its relative strength indicator. I am not concerned with that given we are in a strong bull heading into bullish seasonality.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth continued to power high and remains quite bullish.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.

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  23. #7956

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Not much change to NAAIM today. It remains very bullish. This is NOT a contrarian indicator.


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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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