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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7933

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    headlines? are we talking about the highly anticipated PFE vaccine ph III trial 2 month safety checkpoint data to be released next week, or something else?

    Medically, 2 months shouldn't mean much (typical trial monitoring is 2 years) but the market bit similar duration effectiveness data hook, line, and sinker, and that's also going to be the basis for any EUA application. Whether people get vaccinated, and it actually works (or fails), remains to be seen.

    Unless POTUS is a screaming fibber on this, I tend to think this data will meet the hype, and the market will react again, at least briefly.

    Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk

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  3. #7934

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by amoeba View Post
    headlines? are we talking about the highly anticipated PFE vaccine ph III trial 2 month safety checkpoint data to be released next week, or something else?

    Medically, 2 months shouldn't mean much (typical trial monitoring is 2 years) but the market bit similar duration effectiveness data hook, line, and sinker, and that's also going to be the basis for any EUA application. Whether people get vaccinated, and it actually works (or fails), remains to be seen.

    Unless POTUS is a screaming fibber on this, I tend to think this data will meet the hype, and the market will react again, at least briefly.

    Sent from my SM-A115U using Tapatalk
    Headlines can mean anything. There is a lot going on besides the Vax.

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  5. #7935

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Today's positive action produced fresh closing highs on both the S&P 500 and DWCPF. It's getting real for the bulls. The next up-leg may be in progress (maybe).

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Both charts got more bullish today. Momentum is still rising. The DWCPF is near overbought territory (RSI). I would not get overly concerned with "overbought" just yet. The market may be just beginning to breakout after a short period of volatility.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is screaming to the upside right now. I can't ignore that any more than I can ignore a bullish NAAIM reading.

    I have a hunch that this market could get silly to the upside. I can't predict it, but I would not be surprised with a rally that has even the bulls shaking their heads. I'm looking forward to seeing how this actually plays out.

    I remain bullish.

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  7. #7936

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market had a mixed close today, with the S&P 500 pulling back modestly while the DWCPF tacked on more gains.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 struggled today, but still closed not far off its previous high. Price on the DWCPF hit another all-time closing high. That chart looks particularly bullish. Today's rally did push the DWCPF into overbought territory as indicated by RSI. I don't consider that to be a big issue with this particular index in the short term.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth ticked a bit higher today and remains bullish.

    There does appear to be more stock rotation going on in the market. Historically, when small caps lead it's a bullish sign. But it's still too early to completely embrace that possibility. We could get a pullback at any time, but the trend obviously remains up.

    I remain bullish.

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  9. #7937

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market was doing well until about mid-day when price weakness began and then continued into close, picking up some steam on the way down. I cautioned yesterday that while I was bullish the market could pullback at any time. So we got a pullback today, but it remains to be seen if there's more downside in store in the short term.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 lost more than 1% and fell back to its recent short-term trading range. Price on the DWCPF fared better than it's counterpart and lost less than 0.4%. The S&P continues to lag the DWCPF. While upside momentum has still not turned on the DWCPF, it has gone flat on the S&P.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth was weak on the day for the NYSE, but it still remains bullish.

    I did not see any particular headline today that was used as a reason for the selling, but the market doesn't always need one. Tomorrow, we get our weekly NAAIM reading, so we'll see how much the smart money has shifted their collective stance on the market.

    I remain bullish.

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  11. #7938

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    FBN "After the Bell" reported the drop occurred due to additional State closures/restrictions imposed.
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 1-19-21=20S, 80G//1-7-21=100%S/ 12-31-20=100G/ ChartLinks=Pg241-242,#2892-2895// www.theepochtimes.com


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  13. #7939

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM came in more bulled up. Risk remains to the upside.

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  15. #7940

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls turned the market around today after a bout of weakness on Wednesday. Small caps continued leading large caps.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price closed at another all-time high on the DWCPF, while price failed to recoup Wednesday's losses on the S&P 500. Momentum continues to rise on the DWCPF and remains flat on the S&P.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth hit another all-time high on the NYSE and remains bullish.

    NAAIM saw an increase in bullishness and is now quite bullish overall.

    Stock rotation continues to favor smaller companies. I do suspect that the S fund will continue to outpace the C fund for the time being.

    I remain bullish.

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  17. #7941

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market was mixed last week, with major averages posting gains and losses depending on the index. We are seeing what appears to be stock rotation going from larger caps to smaller caps, but that's just what I see on a superficial level. I am not looking "under the hood" so-to-speak as I like to keep my commentary fairly simple.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    In the loss column you have the S&P 500, which shed less than 1% last week. On the positive side you have the DWCPF, which posted a weekly gains well above 3%. It's a tale of 2 indexes right now. I tend to believe that this disparity may continue for the time being.

    NYAD.png

    Cumulative breadth remains bullish.

    The latest TSP Talk sentiment survey shows a small increase in bullishness, but I still see the reading as neutral overall. We have a bullish NAAIM reading heading into the new week.

    I expect the market to continue acting much like it has of late. That is, the DWCPF is likely to outpace the S&P in the short term. I'll take it a week at a time and see how it plays out.

    I remain bullish (S Fund). I am neutral on the C Fund.

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  19. #7942

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Oxford University says their vaccine is 70% effective and could be 90% if tweaked a little bit. Good news for the market.
    May the force be with us.

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  21. #7943

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls began the new week in positive fashion as price continued to rise.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    This time, the S&P joined the party, but the DWCPF continues to dominate the action was larger gains. The problem for the S&P is that price is still stuck in a range, while the DWCPF is hitting fresh all-time highs.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is also hitting fresh all-time highs and is looking quite bullish. Ordinarily I'd expect a pullback on this kind of upside action, but the uneven market and other factors tell me that the bulls may continue to probe higher for the time being. In other words, I'm not looking for much as far the downside goes. Not with NAAIM all bulled up. Until something changes, I'm looking for more of the same.

    I remain bullish on the DWCPF and neutral on the S&P 500.

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  23. #7944

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Isn’t Black Friday a good time to be in the market?

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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BND (F Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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