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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7921

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The TSP stock funds were all up more than 7% each, last week. Friday's action saw a modest dip to cap the huge rally.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The S&P 500 is still pushing against resistance at the October peak and there is more resistance just above that at the September peak. Price on the DWCPF needs to show us it can hold its all-time high hit last Thursday. Volume was lackluster on Friday.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth fell on Friday, but the signal remains bullish.

    The TSP Talk sentiment survey came in bullish (assuming we are now smart money). NAAIM was rather neutral, but showed little evidence of bearish leanings.

    The neutral NAAIM reading may be profit taking prior to a pullback, or it could also mean the smart money is waiting for something else to happen before they commit (bullish or bearish). I am not sure. And there is still uncertainty for the market to deal with in general right now.

    I am leaning modestly bullish, but would not be surprised with a pullback at any time.

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  3. #7922

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls came out hard to start the new week off, but that was the morning session. And while the averages closed with nice gains, they closed well off their lows of the day as price fell dramatically in late afternoon trade. Something is going on. I saw this article early in the trading day. Make of it what you will.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mo...fering-outages

    And did you see what happened to precious metal? Slammed.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The biggest thing that jumps out at me is that volume stick. Huge. And notice that the S&P 500 did push past its previous all-time high before getting swamped with selling.

    What do we make of this action? Why did most retail brokerages suffer outages today? Why did NAAIM go largely neutral last week?

    NYAD.png

    Breadth on the NYSE did move higher and remains bullish.

    I have more questions than answers about what to make of the current market environment. And something tells me today won't be the only interesting trading day we'll see in the coming days/weeks.

    Futures are up currently. I generally have no reason to be bearish, but the late day selling does make me uneasy.

    I am remaining modestly bullish. My angst may be a good thing.

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  5. #7923

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Look at all the wicks on top of the candlesticks on this leg up. Now look at every other leg up. Hardly any. Not a good sign.

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  7. #7924

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Clearly a strong rejection. I am glad I held both moves in my quiver for November and moved out the last day in October. We shall see if we consolidate or we have another pullback coming; my magic ball says yes as the tech stocks that has held this up during this pandemic sold off on the Vaccine news. We are at the upper Bollinger Band at close yesterday even with the pullback so nowhere for it to run up and its overbought. As you said, that candle from yesterday looks wicked.

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  9. #7925

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears tried to take price lower today, but they were not successful as price on both the S&P and DWCPF closed near the neutral line. I will say that other indexes fared better or worse depending on the index.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Volume was not as impressive today, but it was still high. There does appear to be a battle raging with gaps and long wicks. And there may be rotation going on as well given how poorly technology fared today. While this market may have a bearish feel about it, price always has the last say and so far it's staying elevated (on the indexes we care about as far as TSP goes). Be that as it may, the S&P is also battling resistance. The DWCPF is faring better, but it hasn't really proved all that much to this point. Normally, I'd be more concerned about the gaps, but this market can be very deceptive. I said yesterday that I had some angst about this market, but I also remind myself that NAAIM, while neutral, is not showing any inclination to short this market (as of last Thursday). So that tells me to be careful about the downside until more proof is offered.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth on the NYSE rose today and hit a fresh all-time high. Nothing bearish about that.

    As I mentioned yesterday, this market is showing mixed signals depending on the index. I anticipate the market will continue to act in ways that may keep us guessing what is going on and where it is actually headed. So far, the rally has not been broken so much as stalled. It may be a peak and it may not.

    I remain modestly bullish.

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  11. #7926

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Happy Veteran's Day to all you Veteran's!

    Today's action had a more "normal" feel to it than that of the past 2 trading days. The bulls tacked on solid gains on normal volume.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The uptrend still remains intact. Momentum is still rising. Price on the S&P is still contending with resistance, so that's a area we want to watch.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth leveled off today, but remains bullish.

    We get a fresh NAAIM reading tomorrow. As always, that will help frame my outlook for the following week. I remain modestly bullish.

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  13. #7927

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Looks like the NAAIM got more bullish today as well.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2022
    Past Returns:
    2019 27.97%, 2018 -3.36%, 2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 2015 8.71%,5Yr Avg 8.35%

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  15. #7928

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Cactus View Post
    Looks like the NAAIM got more bullish today as well.
    Yes, they got bulled up. They continue to shun the downside, so the risk remains up as far as they are concerned. Yes, money can be made shorting if one is nimble and generally operating outside of TSP, but the bigger money appears to be to the upside.

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  17. #7929

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I guess we need a down day. Since the end of October the "C" fund is up $4.12, the "S" fund is up $5.43 and the "I" fund is up $3.48.
    May the force be with us.


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  19. #7930

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by nasa1974 View Post
    I guess we need a down day. Since the end of October the "C" fund is up $4.12, the "S" fund is up $5.43 and the "I" fund is up $3.48.
    I said something along those lines the other day. Market action (and associated "news") seemed to have a bearish feel to it on some days (understandably so), but taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture (longer term vice short term), price is doing fine. There are those that do want the market driven lower, but then there are those who do not. Who has had overall control? The bulls.

    And the smart money (NAAIM) is betting on it to continue, but we also have to remember that weakness can still manifest even if price goes higher as part of the trend.

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  21. #7931

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market fell today, but price remains in a multi-day range over the past week. Coiling for a move higher?

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see from the charts that price has stalled. Volume has fallen off since earlier this week. Momentum is still rising, but weakening a bit.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth fell, but still remains bullish.

    The latest NAAIM reading shows this smart money getting bulled up again. Whatever caused them to go neutral last week has apparently passed. One of the main takeaways was that they never showed much inclination to get bearish. It hasn't been easy to figure out this market, even for these money managers who were bullish a few weeks ago when the market took a dive. That was unusual, but it can happen. Generally speaking, I want to be aligned with them more often than not.

    I am going from modestly bullish to simply bullish.

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  23. #7932

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Friday's action saw the bulls rally the market to cap a great week. All 3 TSP stock funds were up more than 2%. And so far, all 3 TSP stock funds are up close to 10% or more in the month of November and we are only mid-month.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The action may have had a bearish feel to it earlier in the week, but the charts themselves are not bearish. The brief turbulence was unusual and many (including myself) were questioning whether the rally had peaked. While the market hasn't exactly begun another leg higher since the peak from last Monday, price on both charts has closed near its closing peaks. Momentum is still rising.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth turned right back up after slipping on Thursday and closed at a fresh all-time high.

    The TSP Talk survey came in neutral this week. We are not quite as optimistic as NAAIM, which came in bulled up.

    My indicators remain bullish, which includes the smart money. I want to see price clear (close) above the intra-day peaks from last Monday. With the smart money bulled up again, the chances are good that this market will trend higher. I would only caution that headlines may still cause continued intermittent turbulence, so we have to be prepared for that.

    I remain bullish.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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coolhand's Account Talk
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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes