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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7909

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears really took it to the bulls today. Neither a bullish smart money reading nor the wall of worry has kept this market from probing lower.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We'll, price on the S&P 500 is now approaching the September low. Will that act as support or do the bears have other ideas like testing the 200 dma? Price on the DWCPF closed below its 50 dma today. Volume was a bit elevated. Momentum is hard to the downside.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is now about as bearish as it gets before a turn higher (in most cases, but not necessarily this time).

    With the election still a few days away, I hope the bulls aren't waiting for the results. The Covid thing always ramps up to divert attention as key times too (like now). That's what happened in Florida a few weeks back when our Governor continued to open the state. Covid magically increased (immediately). It's a very smart virus that tracks closely with the political sphere. And then there's the battle over stimulus.

    My point is that it is near impossible to predict this market under current circumstances. Just ask the smart money.

    Speaking of smart money, NAAIM reports tomorrow. I am holding neutral till I see where they are at. Let's see if today's pounding shook any of the bulls among them.

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  3. #7910

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM came in a bit less bullish this week. That's 2 weeks in a row that they've dropped their bullishness. I would say they are now modestly bullish. They are still not taking any serious positions on the short side, which does seem odd given the weakness over the past 2 weeks.

    So, what does this tell me?

    This is just a guess, but obviously they are still expecting a rally and I don't think it will be a garden variety type. I get the impression they are expecting gains (significant?) on the long side and that any weakness prior to that rally starting is just part of being ready for the real money. Again, this is just a guess, but why else would smart money stay largely long? What happens on the other side of November 3rd? Is there something else that they are waiting for? This is why I follow smart money. I may not know exactly what they are collectively thinking, but they often know things that I do not.

    Anyway, those are my thoughts.

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  5. #7911

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls finally bounced the market today. There is no way to really know if the market has bottomed so I'd not bet on it unless you're positioning yourself for a possible launch (or at least bottom) over the days ahead. Some rallies can manifest quickly and go deep, just like declines. NAAIM is straddling the market between neutral and bullish positions. They are definitely not bearish.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Not much to say about the charts. Price is back at the 50 dma on the DWCPF, but still below it on the S&P 500. Momentum has yet to turn back up. I note that the market is not oversold (not that it needs to be for a turn higher), so that could be reason for remaining at least cautious.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth bounced, but remains bearish.

    As I noted earlier today, NAAIM was less bullish, but still bullish (modestly so). It was notable that there is little evidence of any serious shorting with these money managers, so I'd be careful about getting too bearish. These guys appear to be waiting for something and that something may mark a bottom before moving price to the upside. But when? Likely before not much longer as they are still holding significant long side trades.

    Now that I've seen how they are positioned heading into next week (with Nov. 3rd in sight) I am moving from neutral to a modestly bullish sentiment. Weakness may still manifest until the market gets whatever it is looking for.


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  7. #7912

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Awesome points and assessment Coolhand! Thank you!
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice /IFTs: 11-30-20=100%G / Prior: 11-5-20=65G,35S; 10-30-20=100/ ChartLinks=Pg241-242,#2892-2895/www.theepochtimes.com

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  9. #7913

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Last week was not pretty for the bulls. All 3 TSP stock funds were down more than 5%.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The charts are now showing significant technical damage with price on both charts sitting below their 50 dma's. Momentum continues to fall. The S&P 500 looks like it may try to test its 200 dma. It's an attractive target for the bears, but that would require another day like we had last Wednesday. Volume has been elevated the past 3 trading days. RSI is still not oversold.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth ticked lower and remains bearish.

    NAAIM is modestly bullish. Our TSP Talk survey came in modestly bullish as well.

    As difficult as this market has been the past 3 weeks and especially last week, the weakness appears to be driven by numerous elements within the political and financial spheres. All of this is likely going to see an inflection point after November 3rd. Exactly what happens at that point (and how long it takes to happen) will be quite interesting.

    As I have said in recent posts, given NAAIM has not been bearish through any of this selling pressure may very well be an indication that a market recovery could come soon and has the potential to be explosive. I am not making predictions. I am just reading the technical and sentiment landscape as I see it. However, the selling may not be over so don't be surprised by continued weakness in the very short term. We need to see what happens on the other side of November 3rd to get a better idea of whether anything changes with the market.

    The smart money has been looking higher for 3 weeks, though they have slowly tempered their long side trades as the selling increased. But they never got bearish. They certainly seem intent on not missing out on a turn higher. Even though loses over the past 3 weeks have been significant, the gains off a bottom could be much more so. That's what I think they are telling us.

    I remain modestly bullish despite the potential for more selling in the very short term.

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  11. #7914

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Was today's positive action a precursor to a bigger move? Early positioning? I don't want to read too much into it, but it's possible. We know the smart money has not been embracing weakness either.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The charts are not much changed, but is momentum ready to turn up? It looks like it might be.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth remains bearish, but it has been trending up the past few trading days.

    Well, the big day is upon us. It's going to be crazy. While I remain modestly bullish I also know that things can get chaotic. There is a lot of emotion out there and how that affects the markets will be interesting, if not unnerving. I am not talking about tomorrow's action so much as the days and weeks ahead. Buckle up.

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  13. #7915

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Monday's positive action seemed to suggest a bigger move may be near. Tuesday's rally confirmed it.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 surged upward and almost tested the 50 dma. Price on the DWCPF blew past and closed sell above its 50 dma. Volume was only average. Momentum is starting to turn back up.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth on the NYSE surged to the upside and flipped bullish in the process.

    We may be seeing the early stages of a solid rally. I am not sure if it will be challenged by the bears or not. I also suspect the bears could get overwhelmed (smart money is bullish), but for how long?

    I remain bullish.

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  15. #7916

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The rally continued today, even as uncertainty appeared to reign over the political sphere. Market generally do not like uncertainty, so I thought the rally was interesting for that reason. Of course, the smart money may not be as surprised.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 retook its 50 dma today. Price on the DWCPF moved further past its own 50 dma. Volume was above average and momentum has now turned up. Potential resistance at the previous peak is not far off on either chart.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth was not as impressive today, but did eke a bit higher and does remain technically bullish.

    At some point, the market is likely to pause or consolidate gains if this rally continues. Any unexpected news could also turn the market around, so I can't rule that out. NAAIM reports tomorrow and that will be an important reading given all of the uncertainty. We'll see how the smart money is positioned heading into next week.

    I remain bullish.

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  17. #7917

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM came in a bit less bullish for the 3rd week in a row today. I'd say they are now neutral. However, I still do not see any serious shorting going on with these money managers. They appear to be either neutral or long, so the risk remains to the upside in my opinion. Having said that, the caution that they are showing may be short term given the extent of the rally as a pullback could come at any time. Some of them may be keeping powder dry to buy in at a lower price point. That's my educated guess.

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  19. #7918

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    A few days ago I said -

    "...given NAAIM has not been bearish through any of this selling pressure may very well be an indication that a market recovery could come soon and has the potential to be explosive. I am not making predictions. I am just reading the technical and sentiment landscape as I see it."

    I like to think I do a good job of capturing market action most of the time by using the smart money to frame my analysis. I know many of you find it well worth consideration and while I don't post for the purpose of gather "likes" they do tell me how my analysis is being received, so thank for that.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The market rallied hard once again today. The market is really telling us that it is not confused about current events, otherwise it likely be moving in the other direction. It already knows the outcome and is apparently betting on it.

    Price on the DWCPF closed at an all-time high today. Price on the S&P 500 is not far behind, but does have some resistance to push through before it can (hopefully) join the DWCPF. Momentum continues to rise.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is looking good and remains bullish.

    Earlier today I said that the smart money (NAAIM) went neutral, but that they are not shorting in any serious measure, which keeps risk to the upside. I think it may very well be possible they are allowing for a pullback to reenter the market, but they may also feel the need to reduce risk for some other reason.

    I remain bullish, but anticipate some profit taking and consolidation at any time.

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  21. #7919

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH,
    What do you think about the large gaps over the last week in this explosive moves?
    May the force be with us.

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  23. #7920

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Gaps do not always get filled quickly. Look at the large gap from mid-May on the S&P.


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