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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7897

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Wednesday's market action wasn't much different than we've seen of late; early strength followed by weakness. Price was up and down, but by the close the indexes were down on the day.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    It's obvious there's a battle going, but so far the bulls have contained any serious technical damage to the charts. It's worth noting that overbought conditions more than a week ago are well out of overbought territory now.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is still technically bullish, but like the charts it's under pressure.

    Am I surprised by the weakness? Yes. And I suspect the money managers at NAAIM may be too. They report tomorrow with the fresh sentiment reading.

    I am remaining bullish, but that may change depending on the NAAIM reading.

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  3. #7898

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The latest NAAIM reading revealed a small decrease in bullishness among these money managers, but make no mistake this reading is still bullish. It appears that those that reduced long exposure went neutral rather than bearish (for the most part). These managers are basically telling us that they expect prices to rise once current bouts of weakness dissipate.

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  5. #7899

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls turned things around today as stocks started out mixed, but began to rally by mid-morning eventually closing out the day with good gains.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    I note that price on the S&P 500 came very close to testing the 50 dma before reversing. Price on the DWCPF has held its position well above its respective 50 dma.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.

    To this point, it remains uncertain if today's rally finally broke the string of weak trading days, but the smart money remains long stocks.

    NAAIM came in bullish today, though not quite as bullish as last week. I do not see much shorting going on by this group, so that's telling as well. Based on this reading, it seems it may simply be a matter of time before the market finds its feet once again. Maybe today was the beginning. I get the impression that the market may be waiting for something to happen.

    I remain bullish.

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  7. #7900

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I agree. Hopefully we will lift out of this Bullearish period tomorrow and next week!

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  9. #7901

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thanks Coolhand!
    I always appreciate your viewpoints!
    Spot on!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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  11. #7902

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As difficult as this market has seemed at times, the indexes were only down moderately last week (about 0.5% or less). They still sport significant gains on the month.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Friday saw the market make it 2 up days in a row. Momentum is flattening. I'd like to see price on the S&P 500 make a run at the September high and break to the upside from there. I suspect that will eventually happen.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth moved higher and remains bullish.

    TSP Talk sentiment came in neutral with an almost even split between bulls and bears. Of course, NAAIM remains bullish.

    I just can't get bearish on this market (not that I want to). Especially when the smart money is long. Don't forget about the wall of worry.

    I remain bullish.


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  13. #7903

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It's very unusual for NAAIM to be as bullish as they are and the market manifesting weakness at the same time. I attribute this to the "big event" approaching in early November. I still believe the market eventually turns up (as long as NAAIM remains bullish).

    Just my thoughts.

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  15. #7904

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH, I found it curious as well. I am still new to all of this, but I really expected the market to continue the upward trend for a few days and then pausing this friday....

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  17. #7905

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I also expected wall of worry AKA 'WOW' to continue, now I'm thinking the market is pricing in predicted election results and no stimulus deal before the election.


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  19. #7906

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I'm sure people read the headlines and know that futures turned down because of the covid surge in Europe last evening. I know there's a lot of things in the mix but personally I think the possibility of another covid surge and shut down and uncertainty on how the future elected officials will handle it is driving this more than the usual pre-election nerves at this point.

    Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
    Last edited by tom4jean; 10-26-2020 at 03:44 PM.
    Expected FERS Retirement; December 2028
    Thru-hike the Appalachian trail spring 2029

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  21. #7907

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears started off the week with another attack on price that sent the indexes lower, though the market did close well off the lows of the day.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The most notable thing about the charts is that price on the S&P 500 closed under the 50 dma today. The question is, will it stick? The DWCPF remains in better shape, but it too has been under pressure. Momentum took a turn lower.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth technically flipped bearish, but it's not a strong signal as yet.

    As I said earlier today, the smart money isn't usually wrong for very long. Normally, they get right within 3 days, but we're well past that point. Up to this point, technical damage has been very limited, but now we see the S&P 500 testing the 50 dma and closing under that key average. I'm still not bearish, but this market may challenge weak bulls.

    Let's see how the bulls respond to the S&P 500 support being tested. I am remaining bullish given that is where the smart money is and the fact that the DWCPF remains in decent shape despite the weakness.

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  23. #7908

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears made it 2 in a row today. The market wasn't hammered, but it's been trending lower now for over 2 weeks. And NAAIM has been bullish for most of that time. At this point, I have to say that the smart money was too early this time.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P edged a bit further below the 50 dma. It's still not far from that key average and hopefully it won't stay below it for much longer. Price on the DWCPF edged lower as well, but still remains above that same key average. Momentum continues to fall. Volume has only been average overall through the decline.

    NYAD.png Breadth was modestly bearish yesterday, but after today it's more bearish. Still, it's been below the 39 day EMA before. And it doesn't generally stay below that level for long (unless it's different this time). I don't expect it to be different, but I can't say the selling is over.

    My personal market sentiment generally follows NAAIM sentiment. And because they were bulled up almost 2 weeks ago it was a no-brainer to follow their lead. That's where the money has been for quite some time. But no one bats 1,000.00 (unless you're a central bank).

    At this point, I think the odds that the market is nearer the bottom than the top is about even.

    I am going neutral. That means that I suspect a bottom is not yet in, but that most of the downside may be behind us. Getting out now could mean missing a big rally off the bottom. NAAIM reports again in 2 days.

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