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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7885

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Today's NAAIM reading shows a healthy jump in bullishness as many bears have shifted their sentiment. The reading is not heavily bulled up, so there is still a lesser degree of caution among them. I see the reading as modestly bullish.

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  3. #7886

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls are having a great week this week and Thursday saw the rally continue.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the DWCPF is starting to stretch to the upside. The S&P 500 has a lot of catching up to day, but at least it's heading in the right direction. Momentum is rising. The DWCPF is getting close to being overbought.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is looking very bullish and often when it gets this stretched it's usually time for a pullback, but that could still be days away (or not).

    NAAIM went from modestly bearish last week to modestly bullish today. That's a good sign and is suggestive of more gains down the road.

    As I mentioned above, a pullback could come soon, but with the DWCPF hitting all-time highs and breadth stretching to the upside a pullback may only be a reload for the bulls.

    I remain bullish.

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  5. #7887

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls closed out a great week with even more gains on Friday.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 is pulling away from the 50 dma, but resistance looms at the previous peak. Price on the DWCPF has already sliced through resistance at its previous peak and continues to probe higher with no overhead resistance. Upside momentum continues to rise.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth ticked higher on Friday and remains bullish.

    I have a strong feeling the bulls may find a way to continue driving price higher as we push toward the November elections. That doesn't mean straight up, but the timing of this rally is interesting. NAAIM came in modestly bullish yesterday and that is what we want to see if we're long stocks.

    I remain bullish.

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  7. #7888

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The S&P 500 outpaced the DWCPF today as both indexes posted gains to start the new week.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 is very close to testing resistance at the previous peak. I am guessing that it will eventually push past resistance given the DWCPF did so several trading days ago. There is no overhead resistance on the DWCPF. Momentum continues to rise on both charts. I should point out that the DWCPF is now overbought according to RSI.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth continues to go vertical on this rally and remains bullish.

    The market is due a pullback, but if this action has anything to do with the elections in early November any pullbacks may not be deep or last too long.

    I remain bullish.

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  9. #7889

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said the market was due a pullback, but it may not be deep or last long. Today, we got a pullback and it wasn't deep, but whether there is more weakness remains to be seen.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The charts still look very bullish, though the S&P 500 still has overhead resistance at the September peak.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

    We'll have to see if the bears can continue to put pressure on price, but I have a feeling there may be a floor under this market right now. Where that floor is I don't know, but I doubt it's lower than the 50 dma; if price can even be driven that far (I doubt it). In fact, we could see the bulls turn the market back up before long. The DWCPF hitting all-time highs this past week is not something I can ignore and I still think the S&P 500 joins that index sooner or later with new highs.

    I remain bullish.

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  11. #7890

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears managed to pull the market back bit more today, but so far the pullback has been measured and not inconsistent with a healthy one at that.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So, we may have potential bulls flags forming. Momentum has leveled off.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth fell along with the market, but remains bullish.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. It's always interesting to see what the smart money is doing on a week to week basis. They were modestly bullish last week.

    I remain bullish.

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  13. #7891

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market fell hard at the open today, but the bulls immediately countered and eventually turned price back up. It took the entire trading day, but the bulls did close the market mixed, which was a victory in itself.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Still no serious technical damage, but are the bears done? They might be (see below).

    NYAD.png

    Breadth ticked higher on the day and remains bullish.

    NAAIM came in heavily bulled up today. The bears have thrown in the towel in this survey. That's a huge clue because it suggests that the uptrend may be about to resume.

    I remain bullish.

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  15. #7892

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    For all the downside pressure the bears tried to put on last week, the C and S funds still managed to eke out modest gains on the week. Friday's action, coming just 1 day after a decisively bullish NAAIM reading, saw more back and forth price movement that resulted in largely a mixed close on the day. Keep in mind that NAAIM readings are not daily readings. They are weekly readings, so instant gratification is not a given.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Still no real technical damage on these charts. The market was overbought on the DWCPF, so a pullback was certainly not unexpected. But also notice that price on the DWCPF is only modestly below its all-time closing high. This does seem to suggest underlying strength in the overall market.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth remains weak of late, but is still bullish.

    The TSP Talk sentiment came in less bullish than last week, but still leaning bullish.

    NAAIM, as we know, came in bulled up last Thursday. That reading is likely to get right soon. I'd say within the next couple of trading days. These readings should be used to give one an overall sense of how the smart money is not only feeling, but how they are positioning. Remember, they are smart money for a reason. They often have access to information that we do not. I feel more strongly about this sentiment reading than any other and right now they are positioned for gains on the long side.

    I remain bullish.

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  17. #7893

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Well, It's obvious that the bears have not gone away as yet. The market started out positive, but could not maintain that positive start.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Looking at the charts, we can see that the S&P 500 is now getting close to testing its 50 dma. Price on the DWCPF appears to be weathering the weakness a bit better than the S&P. Neither chart is showing any serious technical damage, but if the S&P 500 doesn't firm up soon, it's possible that it may violate support at its 50 dma. That still won't be cause to get overly bearish, but it would embolden the bears. Momentum is falling, but is not bearish as yet.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth flipped bearish on the NYSE today.

    There are bearish forces out there that have trying hard to take this market down since the September peak, but the bulls have not been inclined to simply step aside. It is also not unusual to have a big bullish shift in NAAIM and then see immediate weakness for up to 3 days or so, but that isn't a given every time it occurs. Unfortunately, it's happening in this case to this point. I still expect the bulls to counter this downside attack. If they do not turn the market back up soon however, we may see NAAIM back off their bullish disposition at least to some extent (emphasis "may").

    I remain bullish, but if the S&P 500 closes below its 50 dma, I may go neutral. The relative strength of the DWCFP is still encouraging, but it's the S&P 500 that has better visibility among traders.


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  19. #7894

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Once again, the market started out on the strong side only to see selling pressure manifest later in the trading session.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The selling pressure erased sizable gains on the S&P 500, but that index still managed to post moderate gains by the close. The DWCPF closed with a modest loss. Overall, it wasn't a bad day for the bulls, but they have not been able to mount an upside attack without the bears countering their efforts.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth ticked higher and is leaning bullish once more.

    So far, the bullish NAAIM reading hasn't resulted in the kind of action I generally expect to see within the first 3 days of the survey, but that doesn't mean the signal is a bust (necessarily). It just may need more time, but another reading is only a couple of days away.

    I remain bullish for now.

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  21. #7895

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The relief bill back and forth may be throwing a wrench in the works.
    100% G COB 30 Dec 2020; was 100% S COB 09 Dec; was 100% G COB 30 Oct

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  23. #7896

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    The relief bill back and forth may be throwing a wrench in the works.
    I would not be surprised. Narratives are often crafted or leveraged to explain market action.

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