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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7861

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM came in slightly more bearish today. The reading showed that the bears increased the leverage on their short positions, while the bulls held firm. This reading is bearish, but not wildly so. I anticipate more weakness, but I also expect the bulls to counter attempts to bring the market down. In other words, volatility should be expected.

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  3. #7862

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    AAII for 9/23:

    25% bullish
    46% bearish
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  5. #7863

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Check out https://finviz.com/

    Interesting!!
    10/16/2020
    LS CRUDE Oil
    =$40.88 a Barrel, Daily Status -$.08

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  7. #7864

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We had a bit of a roller coaster ride today with the averages closing mixed by the close.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The bulls were not able to recoup much, if any, losses today. We can see that the DWCPF dipped for a modest loss.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth was a bit weak and remains bearish.

    NAAIM came in a bit more bearish today and I see the reading as bearish overall, but not by a lot. I see the reading as a prescription for more volatility for now, but with a downside bias (for now).

    I remain bearish, but not overly so. I believe the bulls will put up a fight and will likely win the war, but whether a bottom is in is debatable. Watch the 200 dma.

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  9. #7865

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls took back a chunk of recent losses today. It was a decisive reversal, but does not yet change the intermediate term trend, which is down.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price remains below the 50 dma on both charts, which is now an area of resistance. We'll have to see if the bulls can test this average and whether they can successfully retake it.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth turned back up, but remains negative (bearish).

    I said that the NAAIM reading, which was modestly bearish, suggested volatility. Volatility can occur during a trading day or can manifest for days to weeks as the bulls and bears battle for control of price. For the moment, the bulls have yet to prove they have recaptured control of price. A successful retest (positive breakout) of the 50 dma would help in this regard, but that remains to be seen.

    I remain modestly bearish for now.

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  11. #7866

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls had their way with the market today, tacking on significant gains that has price now testing the 50 dma.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price closed right on the 50 dma on the S&P 500 and just above it on the DWCPF. What we need to see is a continued push past that average (not necessarily in the short term) to help firm it up as support. Note that resistance at the 3500 area of the S&P (February peak) is not far above right now. Momentum is starting to turn back up.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth also rose and is now neutral. Note that the 21 day ema is starting to negatively cross the 39 day ema. That would be bearish if it continues to move in that direction (if the bulls keep pushing price higher, that should not be a problem).

    So, the bulls wasted no time testing the 50 dma. Now, I have to see whether or not they can successfully push it higher and hold it.

    I am moving to a neutral sentiment.


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  13. #7867

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thank you for your pointing out the negative crossover! This info seems very noteworthy. Could this mean smart money is moving out of the market even as it rallies?? Seems like divergence. Is that an accurate take???
    Please don't take my comments as trading advice Now: 10/16/20=35S, 65G /Prior: 10/14/20= 30G-35S-35C/ 10/5/20=100%G/ChartLinks=Pg241-242,#2892-2895/www.theepochtimes.com

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  15. #7868

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Thank you for your pointing out the negative crossover! This info seems very noteworthy. Could this mean smart money is moving out of the market even as it rallies?? Seems like divergence. Is that an accurate take???
    When breadth is moving lower, it means more stocks are falling than rising and vice versa (on the NYSE in this case). Generally, breadth rises on rallies and falls on sell-offs. Right now, it's rising. If it keeps rising, the 21 day ema will start turning up again.

    I don't want to use the term smart money (or dumb money) when sell-offs (or rallies) are in progress, because I don't see it that way. The amount of fiat in the market is not owned by smart or dumb money, but by the banks and their cronies (around the world). We're talking about hundreds of trillions sloshing around the planet. The elite own more than 90% of that money. That may not be just U.S. dollars, but U.S. dollars very likely make up the bulk of it.

    Are the bankers smart money? They own the casino. I have never taken the term smart money to mean bankers, but they may be tethered on some level to the large money movers (hedge funds, etc.).

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  17. #7869

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Price got rejected at resistance today on the S&P 500, but found support on the DWCPF.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    I won't make too much of it because price didn't move all that much. A retest should be expected.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth dipped back under the shown averages and is now technically bearish.

    The battle continues. I remain neutral.

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  19. #7870

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I guess we don't go positive for the month. Unless your in the "F" Fund.
    May the force be with us.

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  21. #7871

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We got another test at resistance (50 dma) today.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Early on in the trading day it appeared the bulls might have a great day and successful test. Instead, they had an okay day and a tentatively successful test as the bears managed to push price back down in afternoon trade. Price closed above the 50 dma on both charts. The problem is it did so only marginally. This is not a convincing test and only shows that the 50 dma is a battleground area. It could go either way right now. Volume was low on the last day of the quarter.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth rose and is neutral once more.

    I don't have any insight on where this market goes in the short term. It seems to be in neutral right now. We get a fresh NAAIM reading tomorrow. Maybe that reading will give us a better idea.

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  23. #7872

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The latest NAAIM reading changed only modestly. The bears have reduced their short leverage, which appears to be the reason for the modest change in reading. Overall, the reading does remain bearish, but only modestly so. I would say that this reading suggests more back and forth battle over price, but no clear expectation of a breakout or breakdown.

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