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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7813

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As always I really appreciate your insight and updates CH, keep on steaming ahead just like we want this market to do.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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  3. #7814

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Resistance at the February peak manifested today as price was rejected and the market fell back.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    It was nothing dramatic. Price is very likely to probe resistance again very soon given the relatively moderate pullback.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth has fallen off recently, but does remain bullish.

    Tomorrow is Thursday and that's when we get a fresh NAAIM reading. I remain bullish.

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  5. #7815

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    There was very little change to the NAAIM reading today, so it remains solidly bullish.

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  7. #7816

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Pretty heated argument on CNBC right now over market breadth. One talking head says its terrible and that a few stocks are holding the whole thing up. Other head saying he's totally wrong and that breadth is excellent. Thought I would drop that here as we see you post breadth every day as being very good.

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  9. #7817

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by bmneveu View Post
    Pretty heated argument on CNBC right now over market breadth. One talking head says its terrible and that a few stocks are holding the whole thing up. Other head saying he's totally wrong and that breadth is excellent. Thought I would drop that here as we see you post breadth every day as being very good.
    Is there anything on the internet that's not debated (constantly)?

    I only go by the NYSE, which comprises the bulk of the market, but certainly not the whole thing. It's the closest index (for breadth) that matches the TSP funds (C, S). The chart I post of breadth has been in an uptrend for years and it is currently not far off its all-time high, which it has been hitting over and over for some time now.

    Another question might be how healthy is breadth overall. Without getting into specifics, I would acknowledge that an argument can be made that it does show potential problems when taken as a whole, but breadth is not as important as price in my opinion, though they are closely related in terms of trend. And the trend is where we make our money.

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  11. #7818

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears tried to keep it going as price gapped lower at the open, but the bulls stepped quickly after to slowly bring it back to the neutral line and by the afternoon into positive territory.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The gains weren't huge, but we got a reversal. Test of resistance is in progress once more. Above that, clear skies.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth was negative again today, but price rose and that's what counts. Breadth remains bullish, but under modest pressure.

    NAAIM came in relatively unchanged and remains very bullish.

    I remain bullish. Fresh highs are likely soon.

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  13. #7819

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls tacked on more gains in the C and S funds last week, though the gains for the S fund were on the modest side.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We have a fresh all-time high in the S&P 500. The DWCPF is not far behind, but it is struggling a bit.

    NYAD.png

    Interestingly, breadth has been struggling the past week or so as well. I'd say there is a rotation in progress, but I don't monitor stocks to the depth like I once did. I'm just looking at the big picture and focused on price, breadth and smart money.

    The TSP Talk sentiment survey remains bullish, but not as bullish as they were last week, which is somewhat interesting given that the smart money remains heavily bulled up. It's just an observation, so don't read too much into that.

    I remain bullish.

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  15. #7820

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Fresh highs are likely soon.
    Good call! It's still early, but futures are up quite nicely this morning.

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  17. #7821

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Price on the S&P 500 gapped higher at the open in today's trading and price remained elevated throughout the session, closing near the high day.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The DWCPF has yet to push past its February high, but knocking on the door.

    NYAD.png

    Breath ticked higher today and is bullish.

    I remain bullish.


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  19. #7822

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    Default Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

    After some negative/sideways action early on, price found a way to break to the upside in the afternoon session and close positive on the day.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    There is no resistance above on the S&P chart, but price on the DWCPF has not yet cleared resistance. I suspect it will eventually follow the S&P 500 and that it may not be much longer before it does.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth was a bit weak today, but does remain bullish overall.

    I remain bullish.

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  21. #7823

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    Default Re: Coolhand's Account Talk

    Of late, it's been an uneven rally and it's showing up in the breadth reading. Is it of concern? I don't think so. Not as long as you are in index funds.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    And it's the S&P 500 in particular that is currently leading the DWCPF. I don't know how long that goes on. Normally, I'd expect the DWCPF to play catch up sooner or later. I have no reason not to expect that this time either. But it's not like the DWCPF isn't doing well; it's just not matching the S&P 500.

    NYAD.png

    We can see the relative weakness in breadth as the signal dipped even as the S&P 500 continued to rally. I am not looking at this as a warning sign, either.

    Tomorrow we get a fresh NAAIM reading. We'll soon see if they have any concern over the market divergences.

    I remain bullish.

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  23. #7824

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    Default Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

    As bullish as NAAIM has been of late, they are even more bullish after this morning's reading. I don't have to tell you what that means.

    I remain bullish.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
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