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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7777

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    BTW, the melt up was predicted by the NAAIM reading. And to think their website warns you not to use their sentiment for determining market direction.

    Yeah, right.

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  3. #7778

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    If we're in a melt up, I hope we're closer to the beginning than end.

    RE: NAAIM; certainly more of an art than a science and we'll see how many algo traders piled in (or bought to cover) this week with the S&P 500 breakout. Weekly gap at 3350 to be filled sooner than later.

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  5. #7779

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I like NAAIM. What I really value is that it is the sentiment of companies in this group that report their exposure to equities each week. This Investor's Sentiment (contrarian)indicator often seems more right than wrong, although I've never studied the correlation to actual gains or losses that occur within a week of the sentiment reported.

    https://financestrategysystem.com/naaim-exposure-index/
    Last edited by DreamboatAnnie; 07-22-2020 at 08:00 PM.
    Current 7-27-20=G45-F35-S5-C10-5i /Prior:7-22-20=G20-F35-S20-C20-5i/7-6-20=G40%-S30%-C30%/ Strategy&Chart Links=Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895/old charts @Page 215, #2575-76

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  7. #7780

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    NAAIM came in a bit more bullish this week. This market should continue to edge higher.

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  9. #7781

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    Default Re: Market Snaps Back - Posted by Coolhand

    Today's pullback was not unusual. The market had advanced enough over the past few trading days to expect one.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    It appears that price is testing support at the February peak (was resistance) on the S&P 500. The DWCPF had not established itself above the February peak for very long, so I would not call it support yet. I will say that the DWCPF held up better than the S&P today, so that's a bullish aspect for today's trading action.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

    NAAIM came in a bit more bullish this week. Aside from anticipated pullbacks here and there, I continue to expect price to bias to the upside.

    I remain bullish.

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  11. #7782

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The week started off well enough as the market began to add to gains from the previous week, but the bears sent the market lower at the end of the week. The S&P and DWCPF both closed out with a modest weekly loss overall.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Still, the charts remain bullish. No market goes straight up and we do have a bias higher over the intermediate to longer term.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth has turned down, but does remain bullish.

    The bullish NAAIM reading does not generally give quick gratification. I use it to get a sense of weekly expectations. With the smart money bullish, I expect the upward trend to continue. TSP Talk remains bullish as well.

    I continue to remain bullish.

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  13. #7783

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls began the new week by erasing some of the losses from late last week.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So, price is trying to retake the June high again. Aside from the sometimes up/down nature of the market, the indicators continue to point to an overall bias to the upside. Breadth ticked higher today and remains bullish.

    I remain bullish.

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  15. #7784

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The way things are going, a fresh all-time high on the S&P may take till Christmas. Yes, we are biasing higher, but it's like watching the grass grow.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price continues to test support at the June peak.

    Breadth dipped, but remains bullish and we know that the smart money is bullish.

    I'd like to see the bulls take more control, but the indicators still point higher.

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  17. #7785

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls posted some pretty good gains today. In fact, the DWCPF was up over 2%.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    That index (DWCPF) saw price close just above its previous closing high by just a hair. The S&P is not far from its own high. But momentum is largely flat and that's why price seems to be moving in a sideways fashion.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth posted a fresh high and remains bullish.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish.


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  19. #7786

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    Default Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

    The latest NAAIM reading was largely unchanged, but I did note that what little shorting was going on among this smart money was reduced again. In other words, these money managers expect higher prices (eventually).

    Today's action was just more of the slug-fest we've come to expect between the bulls and bears. Let's see how the market ends the day as we may have bottomed (today).

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  21. #7787

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    Default Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

    The bears jumped on the market at the open, gapping price lower after the opening bell. But they couldn't press the downside as the bulls were able to begin recovering the market after about an hour of trading.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    And while the bulls weren't able to get the indexes into the green, they didn't close it all that far below the neutral line either (resilience).

    Breadth dipped, but remains bullish.

    The latest sentiment reading from NAAIM showed little change (bullish), but I did note that the bears among them reduced their short exposure. This group is very bullish overall.

    The upside bias remains, but the back and forth battle for control of market direction continues. The smart money says the bulls will continue to win that battle (eventually).

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  23. #7788

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    Default Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

    We got another shoot out today, with the bears once again striking early, but the bulls countering later in the trading session to send price back near the neutral line (mixed).

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The market is in a range around the June high. Momentum is flat.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth dipped again and you can see that this chart is ragged, but biased higher (and bullish).

    So, the action is not inspiring to bulls or bears, but the bulls are showing a lot of resilience. And as we saw with the latest NAAIM reading yesterday, the smart money expects the bulls to eventually win and march price higher.

    I remain bullish.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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