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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7741

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It wasn't an exciting trading day, but the bulls did manage to post gains by the close.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price is tracking sideways right now, but as long as the 200 dma holds it won't be a problem. Note the rising 50 dma approaching the 200. We could see fireworks if it crosses or gets close to crossing. The bears don't want to see a bullish sign like that as it would likely create additional headwinds for them.

    NYAD.png

    Breath ticked up a bit and remains bullish.

    I remain bullish given the recent NAAIM reading and the successful test of support at the 200 dma more than a week ago.

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  3. #7742

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We aren't moving fast, but if you're a bull, you are moving in the right direction right now. But I'd really like to see a breakout to the upside rather than dancing not far above the 200 dma.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Upward momentum is still rather flat. That 50 dma continues to close on the 200 (of course). A positive cross is likely to occur in about a week or so, assuming we don't sell down. That could trigger some volatility, but we'll see what happens when we get there.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is still bullish, of course.

    I remain bullish.

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  5. #7743

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    But the 50day is about to ‘golden cross’ the 200day.
    Isn’t that supposed to be a green light for the market to surge ahead?
    There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who know binary, and those that don't!!
    Retired on December 31, 2018!!

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  7. #7744

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by uscfanhawaii View Post
    But the 50day is about to ‘golden cross’ the 200day.
    Isn’t that supposed to be a green light for the market to surge ahead?
    There is currently a battle for control over market direction. It may not be a daily battle, but the bears do not want a "golden cross", because it makes it more difficult for them to push price lower. This is because the bulls will take the golden cross as a positive sign, which it is, but it may not go unchallenged by the bears. The battle over the 200 dma is another example, and that battle is happening all over again today. The DWCPF is already under it, while the S&P is not far from falling under it.

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  9. #7745

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The battle over the 200 dma is back in focus again as stock prices fell sharply lower today.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The 200 dma did not get tested on the SPX, but it did come close. The DWCPF shows that price did fall under it intraday, but managed to close pretty much right on it. Momentum is falling.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth took a hit and is now neutral.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow.

    I don't get the impression that this market is going to find it easy to get back to new highs. The are battle lines drawn in the political sphere that can impact our financial health (positively or negatively). So, what I am saying here is that we may have more surprises (volatility) in the weeks ahead as the election draws ever closer. That may sound bearish, but that's not necessarily so. It just depends on control and so far the bulls have had that control.

    I remain tentatively bullish till I see that next NAAIM reading.

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  11. #7746

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    While the battle over the 200 dma continues, the latest NAAIM reading shows a decrease in bullishness, but still bullish nonetheless. I am not seeing serious shorting among these money manager, so I suspect some managers that got less bullish went neutral rather than bearish.

    Bottom line is that the reading is moderately bullish.

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  13. #7747

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears tried to press their advantage today after tanking the market on Wednesday, but the bulls drove price back to the neutral line after early weakness and pressed price to the upside in the final hour of trading to give them a solid gain on the day.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price is now in the middle of the short term trading range, but that 200 dma remains not far below. And with the 50 dma creeping closer to the 200, we may see more attempts to sell the market down. I am sure the bulls know this and may have their own counter to any serious selling. I'm not saying the selling will happen, but there is a lot going on in the chart that could influence price direction (as I've articulated in previous recent posts).

    NYAD.png

    Breadth managed to turn up on the day and is back to a bullish condition (for now).

    NAAIM came in less bullish, but as a group they are still bullish; just less so. The bears among them are showing little conviction. That's good news for the bulls.

    It may be uncomfortable watching the price action of late, but the smart money certainly seems to indicate that the bulls are likely to prevail (to this point). For this reason, I remain bullish.

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  15. #7748

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears put up a fight last week to keep price from trending higher. I had said over the past week or so that the rising 50 dma was nearing a positive cross of the 200, which is technically bullish. This is certainly not lost on the bears, who are trying to turn this market around (lower). The 200 dma is also a key area in this fight.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Volume was elevated on Friday as price closed below the 200 dma on both charts. This is a another test of support. The trend is up, but a battle is in progress to change that. Momentum is falling

    NYAD.png

    Breadth flipped negative on Friday's action.

    TSP Talk sentiment came in neutral, which is not surprising. NAAIM was moderately bullish on Thursday.

    The up and down action the past few weeks has traders and money managers running in both directions. With price now below the 200 dma once again, we may very well see the bulls mount another upside attack. NAAIM supports this possibility. I think we can expect more volatile action in the current market environment.

    I remain bullish, but what happens this week may change my sentiment. We'll see how it goes.

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  17. #7749

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said that since price fell (closed) below the 200 dma that the bulls may mount another upside attack. Sure enough, the week started out with a rally that pushed price back above the 200 dma. Maybe there's more.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So, price has now closed above the 200 dma on both charts, but not by a lot. Momentum has not yet turned back up either, but it's a start if the bulls continue to press. I still think we may be in for a battle.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth got back into a positive configuration, but with price more or less tracking sideways (in volatile fashion) over the past 3 weeks or so, it doesn't mean a whole lot.

    I suspect the battle over control of price will continue. If the bulls can push price to a new high, which is still at least 150 points higher, it may weaken the bears resolve. I do believe we get there eventually.

    I remain bullish, but not complacent.


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  19. #7750

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    Default Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

    A headline I just saw late this afternoon said that the market just closed out the best quarter in decades. I would not have expected that if I wasn't told.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/stoc...lose-news.html

    The bulls kept it going today as price closed out with decent gains.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price is now in the middle of the current short term range.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth ticked higher and remains bullish.

    So far, so good for the bulls, but they need to eventually push price past the previous peak. I still believe we get there eventually.

    I remain bullish.

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  21. #7751

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    Default Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

    We got a choppy day today.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price eked higher by the close. Momentum is flat. Price is also creeping toward the upper end of its current medium term range (past few weeks). Note that the 50 dma is getting very close to having a positive cross of the 200 dma on the S&P 500.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth was flat, but remains bullish overall. Keep in mind that while it's technically bullish it's not tracking higher (like price).

    NAAIM reports tomorrow.

    So far, the bulls have kept the bears at bay. I remain bullish.

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  23. #7752

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    Default Re: Smart Money Gets Bullish

    The latest NAAIM reading shows a small decline in bullishness and modest rise in short positions. The reading overall looks modestly bullish. It shows bulls much more leveraged than bears (conviction). However, because they are not overly bullish as a group, I anticipate that this market will continue to see up/down action. The trend remains up, so we don't want to lose sight of that. We just can't get impatient or complacent.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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coolhand's Account Talk
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