Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

what I keep coming back to with all this market manipulation is that dollar cost averaging may be the most efficient way to go.

Something that I noticed today. at 10:02 (approximately) EST, the market took a sharp incline on a positive trend. Take away the FAANG stocks, and nearly every other stock at 10:02 followed the exact trend until it reversed at 10:18....

Originally Posted by coolhand

So, what's going on with the selling? POTUS made a comment yesterday about the "rich guys" betting against the stock market. When POTUS makes public comments, they are not idle statements. The stock market is at times a major target of big money for the purpose of using it as a form of psychological optics in the never ending political war between good and evil.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/13/trum...to-profit.html

I think it's all momentum based selling. A few of these guys make the comments (who have everything to gain), then the media follows with bold headlines that read THE SELL-OFF CONTINUES! Then the typical small-time investor, much like me, says, "Holy crap! I better sell everything. It's the end of the world!" The billionaires then just sit back and pour another bourbon.

NAAIM came in a bit less bullish, which makes it 2 weeks in a row that they slowly moved toward neutral from a moderately bullish stance. So, they are now neutral. This tells me that the smart money is well aware of the battle for control of price and that because they are neutral, they are taking both short and long positions. We may be in for some volatility.

Yes, I think you're right on the volatility, and maybe for some time to come. Basically, I think we're in a battle between those who think there will be an economic recovery and those who don't. Who do you think wins in the end?

Originally Posted by rangerray

Yes, I think you're right on the volatility, and maybe for some time to come. Basically, I think we're in a battle between those who think there will be an economic recovery and those who don't. Who do you think wins in the end?

We are heading toward not just an economic recovery, but a whole new world paradigm (not the NWO). The next few years are going to be epic (biblical).

The bears tried to press their downside pressure, but the bulls finally stepped in and drove price back into positive territory.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The 50 dma did not get tested, but close may be enough. I suspect a bottom is in for the moment, but the battle is likely to continue over the days ahead.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains negative.

NAAIM came in neutral, which I think bodes for continued back and forth action. They are neither bullish or bearish, so I am not looking for major moves in either direction at this time.

I think the bulls may apply more upside pressure in the short term, but I am now leaning neutral overall.

The bulls gave up ground last week, but the good news is that the 50 dma appears to be support (to this point).

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Yes, it was a lower low that formed, but the 50 dma was not tested. We'll have to see if the bulls can provide some follow through upside action early this week. Momentum is rather flat.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains negative, but not by much.

As I pointed out last Thursday, NAAIM went neutral, which means the market may see up/down action for a few days. TSP Talk sentiment got more bearish and is leaning bearish overall.

Since NAAIM is my anchor reading for my overall perspective, I am also neutral at this time. The indicators favor neither bulls or bears. But remember, the trend is still up overall.

In my last post, I said that the indicators were largely neutral, which included smart money (NAAIM). I also expected more up/down action as a result of the reading.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

I guess we're starting out with up action this week as the major averages tacked on big gains. That isn't a surprise given it appeared that at least a short term bottom was probably put in last Wednesday. And if you look at where price closed; the S&P 500 hit a higher high and is very close to testing the 200 dma. Price on the DWCPF hit a very marginal higher high.

The last thing I said yesterday was that while the smart money was neutral, the trend is still up. Today was a tangible reminder of this.

NYAD.png

Breadth flipped positive on the rally.

So, the big question right now is can the bulls not only sustain this rally, but do so with possible resistance at the 200 dma? I remain neutral until we see what happens in this regard.

After 3 positive days, the market stepped back on Tuesday. That's normal action. However, the 200 dma looms very near on the S&P 500 and that's a potential resistance area.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Not much change to the charts. We remain in somewhat of a sideways pattern right now with price sitting in the upper end of the range.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains positive, but is close to neutral.

My outlook remains the same. I am neutral with the smart money. The market needs to show us it can vault past that 200 dma (for more than a couple days).

The bulls turned it right back around after Tuesday's decline.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

In fact, price on both charts closed at a higher high. Looking at the S&P 500, we can see that price is snugged up just under the 200 dma.

NYAD.png

Breadth remains positive (bullish).

I suspect that a test of the 200 dma is coming soon. Perhaps tomorrow for the S&P 500. That is a resistance point and price is also back in the upper end of a multi-week range (yes, it's biased higher).

I continue to believe that price will eventually vault above the 200 dma, but with NAAIM going neutral last Thursday I thought it might take more time. And maybe it still will if the bulls can't keep it going. We'll know soon enough. I remain neutral, but want to be a bull.