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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7681

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Past Returns:: 2019:​+4.49% 2018: -1.47%, 2017: +12.83%, 2016: +11%, 2015: -.12%, 2014: +6.88%, 2013: +22.39%, ​7 Year Average:+7.95%

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  3. #7682

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I don't agree with their premise that this is a contrarian indicator except in very short time frames. In fact, if anyone followed that advice when these managers were long (for years) they would have done poorly.

    Smart money is generally never contrarian.

    It should also be pointed out that this sentiment reading should not be used all by itself. Other indicators should be used to help validate a market perspective.

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  5. #7683

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    07/02/2020
    LS CRUDE Oil
    =$48.65 a Barrel, Daily Status +$.83

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  7. #7684

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    I don't agree with their premise that this is a contrarian indicator except in very short time frames. In fact, if anyone followed that advice when these managers were long (for years) they would have done poorly.

    Smart money is generally never contrarian.

    It should also be pointed out that this sentiment reading should not be used all by itself. Other indicators should be used to help validate a market perspective.
    Coolhand

    I'm sorry for the stupid question but how do you read the NAAIM to tell if they are bullish or bearish. Am I to look at the trend i.e the last report based on the link Nnuut provided shows it moving down on the 6th but is one to say that anything above a 50, they are still bullish but trending down. Any help you may have to help understand how to read it would be greatly appreciated.

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  9. #7685

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    2020-05-08_14-52-21.png

    Here is a chart from the NAAIM website where they plot the NAAIM Number. I suspect that the numbers on the left side of the chart can go negative or more positive than what is shown, but that doesn't generally happen. Let's say that 60 is neutral (which it is on this chart). The further above that neutral line the number goes, the more bullish the reading. By the same token, the further lower that the number goes below the neutral line, the more bearish the reading.

    For anyone reading this, don't over-analyze the reading. There is some subjectively involved. All you are trying to do is get a sense of how the smart money is positioned overall. Are they collectively bullish, bearish or somewhere in between?

    My personal perspective on how I read the weekly NAAIM reading is also shaped by other data that changes week to week (not dramatically), but be aware that I have been using NAAIM for probably 10 years now and nothing takes the place of experience.

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  11. #7686

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thanks for explaining it


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  13. #7687

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls had a very good week last week, especially if you were exposed to the S Fund. We have not hit a higher high yet, but the market is not far from making one if the rally continues on this up-leg. No doubt, many cannot fathom how this market continues to defy gravity given the headlines. Kinda makes you want to through out fundamentals altogether, doesn't it?

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The up-trend remains firmly in place, but there resistance above at the 200 dma.

    Breadth remains bullish.

    TSP Talk sentiment came in neutral. NAAIM is leaning bullish.

    I remain bullish.

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  15. #7688

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears tried to get something going today, but the bulls would have none of it as the market started out the trading day weak, but finished near the neutral line.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We do have some resistance on both charts near the highs. The 200 dma is not far above, which may present more resistance should it get tested. I have a strong hunch price will eventually push past that key average, but I'm not making any predictions.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth remains bullish.

    As I've mentioned in the past, I suspect there is a floor under this market. If I am correct, the bears are in trouble and the uptrend should continue over time.

    I remain bullish.

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  17. #7689

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Premarket futures reversed hard, FOMO phenomenon continues...you're not the only one with that "strong hunch."

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  19. #7690

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was the bears turn to turn the market around today as the market started off in positive territory, but eventually succumbed to heavy selling pressure in afternoon trade.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Overall, there is still no damage to the uptrend, but we do have resistance at the current peak.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is looking rather neutral now.

    It may not be an easy road for the bulls to take this market higher, but easy or not I still believe it will be heading higher.

    I remain bullish.

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  21. #7691

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bears are certainly letting the bulls know that they are not just simply going to go away. The markets fell again today with price now testing support near the last low.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price does remain above the 50 dma, so that's a plus for the bulls. The bulls do need to turn price back up for another run at the 200 dma or risk additional selling with a possible test of the 50 dma first. Momentum is turning down.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth has flipped negative.

    I didn't think it would easy for the rally to go unchallenged and it isn't. NAAIM reports tomorrow and that will really help shape expectations for the next few days.

    I remain bullish, but support needs to hold.

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  23. #7692

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I am looking forward to see what NAIIM report says. My personal sentiment has been bearish and I have been trying to understand the thought process on the bullish people out there.

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