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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7609

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market bounced after Monday's beginning of quarter sell-off.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    I don't think it means all that much other than a short term bounce.

    Breadth remains bearish.

    As I mentioned earlier today, NAAIM came in bearish again, but the bears increased their short positions moderately, which tells me at least some of the smart money is likely looking for a test of the lows or at least more selling this week. There is nothing bullish about this smart money right now, so I'd be uncomfortable going long in the short term without compelling technical analysis otherwise. I don't have any. I primarily go by the smart money who possess their own professional analysis.

    I am now bearish.

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  3. #7610

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Coolhand et Al,
    Thanks for the posts always. Its been years since I have been on this board but I always appreciated the good information. Probably a dumb question, but i have seen many references in the past to "smart money" and "dumb money" not know what it is. Could you help me understand the indicators that identify and distinguish the two?

    Thanks in advance...

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  5. #7611

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by gronk007 View Post
    Coolhand et Al,
    Thanks for the posts always. Its been years since I have been on this board but I always appreciated the good information. Probably a dumb question, but i have seen many references in the past to "smart money" and "dumb money" not know what it is. Could you help me understand the indicators that identify and distinguish the two?

    Thanks in advance...
    Smart money is generally money managers or traders who are considered market professionals. Dumb money is everyone else. I've learned over time which ones are which. I'm not sure there is a perfect definition, but here's a link with another take on it.

    https://nairametrics.com/2020/03/18/...vs-dumb-money/

    I can't find a link that cites which surveys are which, but that doesn't mean one doesn't exist. I don't follow many of them these days. Some are definitely more valuable in terms of utility than others, but that can change over time. I've noted that TSP Talk has probably crossed over into the smart money realm since many on this board, while not necessarily professionals, are market savvy nonetheless. Folks who are not often follow. We've gotten collectively smarter over the years in my opinion. Blame it on Tom.

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  7. #7612

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    A Great Awakening is coming soon.

    Isaiah 26 verse 20-21

    Come, my people, enter thou into thy chambers, and shut thy doors about thee: hide thyself as it were for a little moment, until the indignation be overpast.

    21 For, behold, the Lord cometh out of his place to punish the inhabitants of the earth for their iniquity: the earth also shall disclose her blood, and shall no more cover her slain.

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  9. #7613

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Losses were heavy in the stock funds last week. Particularly in the DWCPF, which fell much harder than the S&P. That's never a good sign.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Still, price remains well above the lows. But momentum may be poised to turn down. It's hard to say for sure from just that indicator.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth remains bearish.

    NAAIM came in bearish last week and the bears among them increased their short positions, but not by a ton. Just enough to expect more selling. We got that on Friday, but I suspect we'll see more selling this week. As I pointed previously, price has not tested the lows and that may yet happen.

    TSP Talk went from neutral back heavily bearish. So, we are aligned with NAAIM, which is a good thing.

    I remain bearish.

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  11. #7614

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH is it true that the íSí fund is comprised of a lot of energy stocks??
    I heard this last week and wondering if true??


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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  13. #7615

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by ToddB View Post
    CH is it true that the íSí fund is comprised of a lot of energy stocks??
    I heard this last week and wondering if true??


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Yes. That's the reason for the big disparity between it and the S&P when oil is making big moves.

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  15. #7616

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    And just like that the S&P hits a higher high.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    These moves are wild and very hard to call. Yes, the S&P closed at a higher high, but not so the DWCPF, so the bulls can't pat themselves on the back just yet. Momentum is moving higher again and that's a good sign at the moment.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth turned up, but remains bearish.

    I went bearish when NAAIM started shorting again, but I said it wasn't with both hands. We can see why after today.

    I am going to go neutral for now. This market may keep us guessing for awhile yet.

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  17. #7617

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market started out with big gains early in the trading, gave it all or most of it back in volatile action (depending on the index).

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    I note that price was rejected near the previous peak on the DWCPF.

    Breadth remains bearish.

    So, the sellers are still out there, but it remains to be seen how much the bears can push price lower. I remain neutral.

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  19. #7618

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Today's action boosted the bull's hold on market direction. However, there still remains plenty of upside resistance.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price is still well away from the 50 and 200 dma's on both charts, but upside momentum continues to rise.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is now neutral and just a hair from going positive once it closes over the 39 day ema.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. They were bearish last week. I really need to see them cross over to a more bullish stance before I'd be comfortable with a long position in this market. But I have say, the market is acting bullish right now and the charts support that sentiment. The question is, is this short term or something more enduring?

    While I am not quite ready to shift bullish, I am certainly not bearish either. Let's see what NAAIM does this week. See you tomorrow.

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  21. Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    FOMO is killing me. But I don’t see this being a sustained recovery. Too many people out of work, no income coming in...feels like the fed is propping up this rally.

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  23. #7620

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Beester15 View Post
    FOMO is killing me. But I donít see this being a sustained recovery. Too many people out of work, no income coming in...feels like the fed is propping up this rally.
    The market has been propped up by the Fed for many years. Money printed out of thin air. It's all a scam, but things are going to change and those changes are in progress.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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coolhand's Account Talk
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