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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7597

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Whipsaw View Post
    Thanks CH! One thing... 'rescued from' vice 'rescued by' ;-)
    You're right. Must be muscle memory.

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  3. #7598

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Mcqlives View Post
    Way too many variables to weigh to get an accurate answer to those questions. Lots of reading/watching ahead of you if you want to try for your own answer. Check out the X22 report (Coolhand cites it often) and then look back through this thread for CH's other references he sporadically mentions). IMO answers...Will it be worth nothing?...No. Some other standard....YES. Will it include precious metals...probably. That vague enough for ya?
    I have a notional idea of what to expect, but it's based on many, many hours of research from respected alternative media sources who themselves are not positive how it all plays out (the details). Much will be revealed over time.

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  5. #7599

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    In a recent post, I said that NAAIM had backed off on their shorts, but remained bearish. I said that this suggested to me that the downside was likely limited. But I also said the upside may be limited too given that they were not flipping bullish. We can see that so far the action is pretty much what I was expecting as price dances sideways.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum is still pointing higher, but it will start to level off if the sideways action continues.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth remains bearish.

    April begins tomorrow. Things are going to get very interesting over the next 2 weeks or so. There are events unfolding that could increase volatility. While I suggested that an upside bias might begin and that a bottom was suggested, I am not entirely sold on that possibility. That's why I'm neutral as is NAAIM. Anything can happen in this environment as there are many external factors in play.

    I remain neutral.

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  7. #7600

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    New month, new quarter, and price immediately goes lower.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    There remains a lot of volume in the market. Momentum is beginning to roll over. I think there is a good chance the market tests the lows.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth obviously remains bearish.

    NAAIM reports tomorrow. I am going to be looking for an increase in short positions. That will tell me whether downside risk has increased.

    I am shifting neutral to modestly bearish until I see that NAAIM reading.

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  9. #7601

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Kudos to Nnuut!

    FWIW, CH, if you haven't watched the Pivot Point video tonight, it is worth a watch. I believe it very closely matches your (and others) prognostications. I'm curious what your (And others) opinion are on it.

    Sorry I'm throwing this into your thread but I don't think many get into the other parts of the site to see the video's Nnuut posts on a daily basis....and this one needs to be watched just for the information. Even if you disagree with him the information is valuable.

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  11. #7602

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It is interesting.
    I'm tempted to stick with Fauci's line, essentially 'we don't select the timeline, the virus selects the timeline' thing.
    But, if the virus has seasonal characteristics, there's a miracle cocktail that mitigates, etc., that scenario becomes pretty viable.
    There's a big difference of opinion regarding the depth of the next plunge- s&p 2050, 1820, or anywhere in between.

    There is a massive infusion and no one knows the extent of economic damage. What moderates my optimism is that, historically speaking, all the market has done to this point is to have blown off excess and is just now at "reasonable" historic P/E levels with one major caveat- that P/E is looking backwards. Regards.
    '

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  13. #7603

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Mcqlives View Post
    Kudos to Nnuut!

    FWIW, CH, if you haven't watched the Pivot Point video tonight, it is worth a watch. I believe it very closely matches your (and others) prognostications. I'm curious what your (And others) opinion are on it.

    Sorry I'm throwing this into your thread but I don't think many get into the other parts of the site to see the video's Nnuut posts on a daily basis....and this one needs to be watched just for the information. Even if you disagree with him the information is valuable.
    Agreed. I've been watching the Pivot Point videos for the past couple of months and it's now become a must watch for me. His analysis is also in line with Daneric's Elliott wave counts.
    100 G COB 03/25/20

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  15. #7604

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Bravo Sierra View Post
    It is interesting.
    I'm tempted to stick with Fauci's line, essentially 'we don't select the timeline, the virus selects the timeline' thing.
    But, if the virus has seasonal characteristics, there's a miracle cocktail that mitigates, etc., that scenario becomes pretty viable.
    There's a big difference of opinion regarding the depth of the next plunge- s&p 2050, 1820, or anywhere in between.

    There is a massive infusion and no one knows the extent of economic damage. What moderates my optimism is that, historically speaking, all the market has done to this point is to have blown off excess and is just now at "reasonable" historic P/E levels with one major caveat- that P/E is looking backwards. Regards.
    '
    I like the P/E tie in...and the open-ended inference to it looking backwards which begs the question "how far back?". Setting the stage for another open ended question... we have huge amounts of money going out from state governments into social programs. The biggest one right now is unemployment. The State of Illinois yesterday announced it will be unable to maintain unemployment payouts (did not specify an insolvency time) and will be seeking relief from the fed's.
    Ask yourself this....what if the federal government says no?

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  17. #7605

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by blueroadster View Post
    So what then happens to personal assets based on the dollar such as investments, cash and debt?
    Depends on how much other countries decide to debase by. It's all relative. The dollar at $100 on $DXY is deflationary.

    I'd be more concerned about the Euro than the US Dollar. Euro is only .03 from a major support line and they just announced this:

    Euro-area sovereign bonds surged after the European Central Bank gave itself unlimited room to buy the debt.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rops-qe-limits


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  19. #7606

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Mcqlives View Post
    Kudos to Nnuut!

    FWIW, CH, if you haven't watched the Pivot Point video tonight, it is worth a watch. I believe it very closely matches your (and others) prognostications. I'm curious what your (And others) opinion are on it.

    Sorry I'm throwing this into your thread but I don't think many get into the other parts of the site to see the video's Nnuut posts on a daily basis....and this one needs to be watched just for the information. Even if you disagree with him the information is valuable.
    Thanks for highlighting this video. He seems rather level-headed.
    "Treat your wife with honor, respect, and understanding as you live together so that you can pray effectively as husband and wife." 1 Peter 3:7

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  21. #7607

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The overall reading from NAAIM today is that they remain bearish. Of particular note that is that they have increased short positions. Not as much as I've seen before, so they are not shorting with both hands. Still, this adds credence to the speculation that the market will likely retest its lows.

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  23. #7608

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Rod View Post
    Thanks for highlighting this video. He seems rather level-headed.
    I agree. I don't trade the markets these days, but the technical analysis is very good.

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