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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7573

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    The latest NAAIM sentiment reading remains bearish, but they have reduced their short exposure. This tells me that the market is not out of the woods, but the downside may now be limited.

    You are on it! That reading is barely out and you are posting! Thanks!!!

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  3. #7574

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market was up big again today. It's really starting to look like a low may be in.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    A sizable chunk of losses have been retraced. Strength and momentum look good.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth is looking good in the short term too. It's still technically bearish though.

    As I posted earlier in the day, NAAIM came in bearish again (not as bearish as last week), but reduced their short exposure. The fact that they are not embracing the rally still gives me pause, but I do think the worst may be over. That's just an educated opinion and I could be wrong. The main take away is that the smart money remains very wary.

    I am going neutral from my previous bearish stance. If breadth flips positive, that would be a big plus for the bulls, but the news could still trigger more volatility.

  4.  
  5. #7575

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Despite Friday's decline, the bulls had a huge week last week as gains with in the double digits.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We might just have a bull flag forming on the charts, but there is still a long way to go as far as market gains are concerned.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth remains bearish, but it's improving, just like the stock charts.

    We saw NAAIM back off their shorts this past Thursday, but remain on the bearish side. I said that this inferred that the downside was likely limited. Since the bulls are not clamoring to get back in (on that survey), I think the upside may be limited too. But that doesn't mean there isn't some upside left in the short term.

    The TSP Talk survey showed many have flipped from bearish to bullish, but the survey itself is neutral.

    I don't think this is getting a lot of attention (link below), but something massive happened last week. In essence, the Federal Reserve was integrated into the Treasury. I'm not going to get into a debate on this, I only want to point out that it happened. This essentially means that the current administration now has direct control over the monetary system in this country. This is just an early indication of where we are going financially. If you have been listening to the X22 Report (others are also covering this), you will have a better understanding of what is coming. I've mentioned this on rare occasions in the past, but I doubt many believed me.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-...110052807.html

    I remain neutral, but I am beginning to think a bottom may be in. I don't think it's off to the races, however, though a bias higher is not out of the question. But this still remains to be seen. This is a difficult market to gauge with so many levers being pulled.

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  7. #7576

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Coolhand...what a thorough analysis, and always appreciate the laymen terms. The risk assessment is my favorite as it always stresses that the moves that we do are ours alone...I look forward to the next post always and am sure a lot of folks do. Good luck with the C-Fund move and hope there is a blastoff soon.
    EJJ

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  9. #7577

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Every chart reader says a retest is due. The gap will get filled, but I don't see it happening any time soon.

    TSP Talk sentiment survey was on Thursday, the fourth day in a row of a 19% rally. I'm sure that made some feel a bit more bullish than normal. Those that are unsure are waiting for that elusive 'pullback' so they can get on board. If it comes they'll sit on their hands and say it's going lower. If it doesn't come, they'll end up chasing prices higher.

    I don't have a dog in metals but I know there are some gold bugs on this site. A major calls order went thru in SLV today: 25000 Jan'2021 @ $25. Somebody with deep pockets is bullish.

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  11. #7578

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Every chart reader says a retest is due. The gap will get filled, but I don't see it happening any time soon.

    TSP Talk sentiment survey was on Thursday, the fourth day in a row of a 19% rally. I'm sure that made some feel a bit more bullish than normal. Those that are unsure are waiting for that elusive 'pullback' so they can get on board. If it comes they'll sit on their hands and say it's going lower. If it doesn't come, they'll end up chasing prices higher.

    I don't have a dog in metals but I know there are some gold bugs on this site. A major calls order went thru in SLV today: 25000 Jan'2021 @ $25. Somebody with deep pockets is bullish.
    I've said before that anything can happen. There are reasons why I think a bottom may be in (a test would not change that), but I won't predict such without solid evidence, which is why I am currently neutral. I am looking for NAAIM to flip bullish. That may not happen quickly.

    SLV is the paper market. I am not sure how relevant the paper market is right now, but it may still have some degree of relevance for optics purposes. The monetary foundation across the planet is the process of being changed. We will all benefit from that change in huge ways. Precious metal will be relevant once again!


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  13. #7579

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Monday's action reversed Friday's losses to a large extent.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum is still rising to the upside.

    NYAD.png

    Breadth remains bearish, but it won't take a lot to flip it neutral.

    This is the end of the quarter, so we'll have to see if anything changes to a large degree starting in April.

    I have nothing to else to add this evening. I remain neutral.

  14.  
  15. #7580

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    ….I don't think this is getting a lot of attention (link below), but something massive happened last week. In essence, the Federal Reserve was integrated into the Treasury. I'm not going to get into a debate on this, I only want to point out that it happened. This essentially means that the current administration now has direct control over the monetary system in this country. This is just an early indication of where we are going financially. If you have been listening to the X22 Report (others are also covering this), you will have a better understanding of what is coming. I've mentioned this on rare occasions in the past, but I doubt many believed me.

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-...110052807.html
    CoolHand, Thank You so very much for keeping this topic in the forefront!!! The article is very informative and is truly scary!

    I wonder what the consequence will be???? If those bonds go bad, we as Taxpayers end up holding the liability. Also, if we keep printing money, doesn't that devalue the dollar further?? So wouldn't that cause massive inflation??? What about Treasuries? What would they be worth???? And as we saw even a couple weeks ago, even Gold did not look like much of a safe haven when the market was tanking (I was surprised by that).....gosh, should I invest more in TP?

    But seriously, I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on what could happen and what the effect will be on the monies we have in TSP and in other investments. We spend so much time building our nest egg and I just don't know where our money is truly safe. !!
    Current 8-25-20=G100% // Prior: 8-24-20=C10-S25-G65//8-11-20=C10-S35-i5 //Chart Links=Page 241-242, posts#2892-2895/old charts @Page 215, #2575-76

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  17. #7581

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Sweet Jesus- all I needed to read is this;

    . The Fed hired BlackRock Inc. to purchase these securities and handle the administration of the SPVs on behalf of the owner, the Treasury.
    That pretty much says it all. The entire dark money lords are going straight to the jugular and taking every ounce of value through looting inside the US Treasury.

    I need a beer.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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  19. #7582

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Coolhand,
    I have been reading your posts since September and I finally logged in and created an account to say THANK YOU. I find your analysis to be invaluable and I have learned a lot from you (and others) over the past 6 months.
    Mike

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  21. #7583

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Beester15 View Post
    Coolhand,
    I have been reading your posts since September and I finally logged in and created an account to say THANK YOU. I find your analysis to be invaluable and I have learned a lot from you (and others) over the past 6 months.
    Mike
    Folks like you are the reason I am on this board. Thanks for the support!

  22.  
  23. #7584

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    How do these actions differ from the actions taken in 2008?

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    Sweet Jesus- all I needed to read is this;



    That pretty much says it all. The entire dark money lords are going straight to the jugular and taking every ounce of value through looting inside the US Treasury.

    I need a beer.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Expected retirement date: November 2023

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