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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7165

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by userque View Post
    FINE PRINT:
    Last time I posted here, I was rudely accused of being "closed minded" simply because I asked (apparently) difficult questions regarding some extraordinary claims being made here.

    Being a Christian, I forgave. But I've kept my distance as some are more sensitive than others.

    But for the sake of others, I'll again dip my toe in the water to offer ... an option. I am open for debate. "Iron sharpens iron." We can learn; and/or agree to disagree. No need for hostility. It's just my opinion, not the end of the world.

    In other words, I come in peace. Whew (out of breath) ... that said:


    NAAIM says regarding the NAAIM Index:
    "It is important to recognize that the NAAIM Exposure Index is not predictive in nature and is of little value in attempting to determine what the stock market will do in the future."
    https://www.naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-index/

    cxoadvisory.com says regarding the NAAIM Index:
    "In other words, the index offers no information about stock market return the next week."
    "In summary, evidence from simple tests on NAAIM survey data offers little support for belief that active investment managers as a group successfully time the U.S. stock market over the near term, but they may add some value by predicting stock market volatility."
    https://www.cxoadvisory.com/sentimen...market-timing/
    Look at it this way; over the years, there were many instances of folks joining the TSP Talk board and getting into debates with market timers that you can't time the market. There were times when it was over-the-top because some folks couldn't simply move on to something else. Each side was convinced they were right. Now, I don't see as much banter along these lines as I used to, but it was not an unusual topic. And it didn't matter whether it was sentiment, charting, stars, tea leaves, etc.

    The claim you read on the NAAIM site as well as the other site referenced above is their personal opinion. Maybe they don't know how to actually use the data for timing because they don't try to time the market. Mark Young, who has a professional trading website and is a Wall Street type trader uses NAAIM along with most other surveys. My own personal use of it has had very good results and I've been demonstrating that here in my thread for the last couple of years at least.

    No one piece of market information can be used in isolation and that includes NAAIM. I use it with the other tools to get a more rounded perspective.

    I hope this helps.

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  3. #7166

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Look at it this way; over the years, there were many instances of folks joining the TSP Talk board and getting into debates with market timers that you can't time the market. There were times when it was over-the-top because some folks couldn't simply move on to something else. Each side was convinced they were right. Now, I don't see as much banter along these lines as I used to, but it was not an unusual topic. And it didn't matter whether it was sentiment, charting, stars, tea leaves, etc.

    The claim you read on the NAAIM site as well as the other site referenced above is their personal opinion. Maybe they don't know how to actually use the data for timing because they don't try to time the market. Mark Young, who has a professional trading website and is a Wall Street type trader uses NAAIM along with most other surveys. My own personal use of it has had very good results and I've been demonstrating that here in my thread for the last couple of years at least.

    No one piece of market information can be used in isolation and that includes NAAIM. I use it with the other tools to get a more rounded perspective.

    I hope this helps.
    I appreciate the civil response!
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]

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  5. #7167

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Given the way futures were acting last night and into the open today, I thought we were in for some fireworks. And while there was some volatility, price didn't travel in either direction all that far (in comparison to the futures market). We ended up with a mixed close.

    DWCPF.png
    S&P 500.png

    Volume remains elevated (in favor of the bears). Momentum is also in the bear's favor. Price on the DWCPF remains below its 200 dma, but above it on the S&P. The relatively contained action may be suggestive of a bottom process that may have begun, but I would not hang my hat on that.

    TRIN was very high yesterday, which suggested a reversal. The fact that all we got was an up/down battle tells me the bears still have the upper paw. Breadth was up marginally, but remains negative.

    This evening, the OEX is neutral again. And the CBOE is bearish again. NAAIM posted later today than usual, but at least we got the data. It didn't change much. The bears are still short, but they tempered their exposure. The bulls remain largely long. The overall reading is neutral.

    Taken as whole, the indicators tell me to look for more of the same up/down battles between the bulls and bears. I am neutral. We do need to keep an eye on the 200 dma on the S&P 500. That has to hold or we could see another leg down.

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  7. #7168

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    While the TSP stock funds were all down for the week, the bulls made a stand on Friday and bounced the market hard.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The bounce pushed price on the DWCPF back over the 200 dma. The S&P never challenged its own 200 dma. Momentum bounced, but has yet to turn up convincingly. Hopefully, price will continue to rally for another test at resistance, which is the 50 dma.

    Breadth turned positive on Friday's shot to the upside. I note that TRIN closed at a very low level, which is bearish for Monday. Volume heavily favored the bulls on Friday, so Friday's rally just might have legs.

    The OEX is now modestly bullish. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM was neutral. TSP Talk came in decidedly bearish, which is bullish. Volatility remains a challenge in picking buy and sell points.

    I am leaning toward the rally continuing on the Monday given the bullish volume and breadth flipping positive. I think sentiment may support more upside as well. I also think the indicators may have gotten sufficiently bearish to mark a low (may). But as I noted above, there are bearish aspects in play too.

    So, we'll see how it goes next week. The bulls need to keep the pressure on and punch through the 50 dma. We're still well under that level.

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  9. #7169

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Futures are up big, so my expectation that the rally will extend from Friday looks good (so far). But we'll have to see how much the bears fight back. We also have to watch resistance at the 50 dma.

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  11. #7170

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I said on Friday that the indicators seemed to be leaning toward the continuation of Friday's rally. We were not disappointed.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Neither charts saw price test their respective 50 dma's, but price is at least moving in the right direction. Note that the Friday's candlestick on the DWCPF isn't showing up on the chart (glitch). Momentum is rising. Cumulative breath is bullish. Volume is bullish. My intermediate term system is still negative, but showing signs or reversing.

    The options are neutral this evening.

    After 2 big up-days, I suspect a pullback may in the cards for Tuesday. The indicators do not suggest anything of concern, so hopefully any downside remains contained. Even better, maybe the bulls find a way to keep price moving to the upside.

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  13. #7171

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As we approach mid-day, we can see the bulls are fighting to retake early losses. If the intra-day low is in, we may just close in the green.

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  15. #7172

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I was looking lower for Tuesday and I thought that maybe the bulls might fight back and turn price back up. As it turned out, the market did start out lower. And the bulls made an early attempt to push price back up, but it failed over the course of the day. Still, losses were somewhat contained.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So, price remains between the 50 dma (resistance) and the 200 dma (support). Momentum has stalled, but has not turned down. Breadth stalled, but did not turn down.

    The OEX is leaning heavily bearish this evening, while the CBOE is neutral.

    The indicators do seem to be leaning bearish this evening, so the bears may not be done. I'm looking lower for Wednesday, but still think the downside will be limited.

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  17. #7173

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday's bearish OEX reading didn't matter to the market today as the bulls rallied out the gate and closed the session with nice gains.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price still remains under the 50 dma on both charts. Volume is tapering off, but that may not be meaningful. Momentum turned back up.

    The OEX is showing a ridiculously high reading this evening (which is bearish), but I don't think we can take it seriously. It may be an aberration. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM Reports in the morning.

    Breath remains positive.

    For now, the bulls seem to have the momentum, but in this market things can change quickly. It's possible we bounce around between the 50 and 200 dma's for a few days. I'm interested in the NAAIM reading tomorrow. They had backed off their bullishness the previous week. Let's see if that changes.


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  19. #7174

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As expected, the market is bouncing around. It was up early and then dove before pulling up and closing not far from neutral.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price remains in the zone between support and resistance.

    My intermediate term system remains negative, but is not far from flipping positive if the bulls can take control. Breadth remains positive, but is tracking sideways now.

    The OEX is bearish this evening, while the CBOE remains neutral. NAAIM saw some of the bulls get more bullish, but some of the bears get more bearish. Overall, the reading is neutral to modestly bullish.

    The indicators remain neutral overall. In other words, I see continued up/down action for now.

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  21. #7175

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Today, some very interesting things happened. If you know how to read between the lines of what POTUS is saying in the news. If you can tie the latest lame stream news narrative into what POTUS is conveying to companies as the trade war heats up. You have a chance to understand what is coming. What is already in progress and has been in progress for some time. But now we are nearing the end stage event(s). If you have been following X22, you will know exactly what I am talking about (refer to this evening's post on X22 (use Steemit). Please understand, I am not on this board for my own personal benefit. I get nothing out of being here other than to help you folks to the extent that I can. And I am not likely to be around a whole lot longer for reasons associated with these events and also because I will likely be following a different path once I retire (soon).

    Let's get to my usual narrative and then I'll weave a bit more info relative to the above post.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Once again, news drove the action. The market reacted to China's tariff response and POTUS later in the day gave companies fair warning to leave China and come back to the U.S. or they may not like the results of any decision to do otherwise. Price dove as a result with losses on the majors in the neighborhood of 2.5% on the day. That puts price back near the bottom of the trading range both above and below the 200 dma. Volume was elevated on the downside once again. The down days have tended to have more volume than the up days for a few weeks now.

    Breadth flipped negative again. My intermediate term system is now backing away from the possibility of going positive (and remains negative).

    The OEX is on the bearish side for Monday. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM is not as bearish as of last Thursday, so I don't think the market falls apart in the short term. There is a battle over control of price direction that is heating up. The jaw-boning is part of it. Both sides have the ability to shake the market, but POTUS has the upper hand. That just means the market is likely to fall apart only when certain parties are ready to pull the switch. If you thought the market was free and open, you are mistaken. It has been decades since that has been the case (read Creature From Jekyll Island).

    So, price is now testing its lows. We'll have to see if support holds and to what extent. We are likely to bounce early next week, but that's about all I can anticipate given the current indicators. It is still possible that the market eventually finds its way back to new highs, so I don't want to give the impression that it's time to get on the sidelines, though I would not blame anyone if they did (I am in the G fund). I am hoping I can give you early enough warning of the bigger market event that is coming, but I certainly can't guarantee such.

    My best estimate is perhaps 1 to 3 months, but take it with a grain of salt.

    Do not look in the rear view mirror and think you know what is coming. Where we are headed is going to completely change our perceptions of financial reality as events play out. Go to X22; you'll get a more detailed understanding.
    Last edited by coolhand; 08-23-2019 at 08:19 PM.

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  23. #7176

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Well, there is a confidence builder.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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