Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

The S&P 500 finished the day with a fresh high today.

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The DWCPF closed with a modest loss. With the S&P sporting a bullish picture, I expect that the DWCPF will eventually join that average at new highs.

Not much has changed to my indicators. The options are neutral. The bias remains up.

I hope everyone is having a great 4th of July! My neighbors are lighting up the skies as I write this this evening.

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Wednesday saw the major averages push price higher, with the S&P 500 looking very much like it is breaking out. The DWCPF is knocking on the door of resistance again, and has yet to join the S&P in an upside breakout. I do think it is coming, however.

My intermediate term remains bullish. Breadth remains bullish. The options are neutral. NAAIM came in a bit more bullish and that is how we should be positioned as well. The breakout on the S&P should be a confidence boost for the bulls.

The TSP stock funds all posted nice gains last week. Friday's action saw the market attempt to give back a good portion of those gains, but the bulls stepped in and offset the sellers to a large extent to end the session near the neutral line (C & S funds).

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The DWCPF has still not broken through resistance, but it's still knocking. Momentum is positive (rising).

Sentiment for the new week has NAAIM leaning bullish. TSP Talk is very bullish, which is past years would be bearish, but this market isn't responding in historical fashion to sentiment so I don't get too bearish on bulled up sentiment in this survey. We are often in the same camp as NAAIM. The OEX is bullish for Monday, while the CBOE is neutral.

Cumulative breadth remains bullish as does the A/D line.

I remain bullish heading into the new week. With the S&P 500 sporting a recent upside breakout and the DWCPF probably poised to do the same, I am looking for more upside. It doesn't hurt that the indicators favor the bulls as well.

Monday saw the broader market give back some of last week's gains, so the battle between the bulls and bears continues.

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No technical damage was done, but the DWPCF continues to be repelled at resistance even as the S&P has solidified its position above is previous resistance line, which is now support.

The options are neutral this evening. Breadth remains bullish. I see no reason to back away from my bullish stance.

I just wanted to let you folks know that there are elements of the financial/geopolitical landscape that are increasing market risk at this time. Deutsche Bank is a huge global financial risk right now. They are in the process of letting about 18,000 global employees go. What should get our attention is that they are also getting out of stocks. This bank is a huge domino amongst dominos. Are they signaling to the financial world that they are getting out before a financial dislocation occurs? It's very possible. Couple that with the Epstein indictment, which is another huge powder keg. These events can intersect along with others, but these 2 in particular have me a bit concerned.

It is impossible to know for sure how this plays out or how much time is involved before anything of magnitude (positive or negative) might occur, but you may want to start following these events closely as part of a market risk strategy. Do not be complacent. I'm not saying run for the hills, I'm just pointing out that these situations have the potential to cause global shockwaves.

The sellers tried to extend their downside assault today, but the bulls countered as the day wore on and successfully pushed price out of the red by the close.

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No changes to the charts. My intermediate term system remains bullish. Breadth remains bullish as well. The options are neutral.

The short term is looking neutral, but things could change quickly. I am still not looking for any serious downside action (at this time) and still think we have more upside coming.

Not surprisingly, the bulls showed once again that they are in control.

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Perhaps the biggest aspect of today's action was that the S&P 500 cleared the 3,000 mark (even if it couldn't hold it). The DWCPF is still trying to break resistance, but if the S&P continues to probe higher, I expect the DWCPF to do the same (over time).

Not much change to my indicators (bullish). The OEX is neutral and the CBOE is bearish for Thursday. NAAIM reports in the morning.

Once again, not much has changed with the big picture after today's session.

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The S&P 500 continues to find a way to creep higher, but at the same time the DWCPF can't break resistance. That may be a problem.

However, NAAIM came in solidly bullish. The bears among them are not getting in the way of this rally. And the bulls appear to see more gains ahead. This has been the group to follow for a long time now and there is no reason to change that perspective now. Yes, there are serious events that are slowly playing out and they will almost certainly have an impact on the market at some point, but the market can be perverse and rally like crazy when it seems it shouldn't. This could be the making of a blow off top that takes weeks to play out before any serious selling manifests, but this is just a scenario I have and not something I would hang my hat on. It's impossible to predict these things with pinpoint accuracy. Take it week by week for now.

Breadth remains positive as does my intermediate term system. The options are neutral and not much help.

Staying long would seem to be the best plan for now, but watch for changes as events unfold. We'll see how long NAAIM remains bulled up. It could be awhile yet. Some think the bull will run into the 2020 election, but I have my reservations about that.

The S&P 500 is having little trouble rising now that there is no resistance overhead.

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The DWCPF is in the process of testing resistance. I still expect it to eventually break through to the upside. Momentum is rising.

Cumulative breadth remains decidedly bullish. My intermediate term system remains bullish.

Sentiment shows that both the OEX and CBOE are bearish for Monday. NAAIM is bulled up, which should be our focal point. TSP Talk is at an extreme bullish level with its highest bull reading all year. As long as we're aligned with NAAIM, I don't worry about it.

My outlook has not changed. I think we can press our bullishness given current sentiment and indicators.

Is the forum not working, no one has posted for 3-days.

Originally Posted by Bill3438

Is the forum not working, no one has posted for 3-days.

I've seen posts, and coolhand posted his update on Saturday, two days ago. He usually will post an update in the evening during the week after the market closes for the next day.

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