Page 588 of 609 FirstFirst ... 88488538578586587588589590598 ... LastLast
Results 7,045 to 7,056 of 7306

Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7045

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,058
    Blog Entries
    937

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The TSP stock funds had a down week last week. Friday's action did close on a positive note, but the charts remain somewhat dicey.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price remains below some key areas. In particular, price has been below the 50 dma on both charts for about 2 weeks now. Price has now been below the 200 dma on the DWCPF for a couple of trading days.

    I pointed out that NAAIM is now neutral. I said in my last post that the market is not likely to fall apart with this reading, but I am now going to open the door to the possibility that the market may be slowly approaching a bigger sell-off. It has been a bull market for a long time, so it is very easy to favor the longer term trend. Yes, that's been the path of success for those that have largely held long, but let's now entertain the possibility that the weakness the market has endured the past few weeks may be an early warning. We'll step through this possibility day by day as the indicators play out.

    So, NAAIM is neutral. TSP Talk is neutral this week. The OEX is neutral to modestly bearish. The CBOE is bullish. Sentiment is neutral overall.

    Cumulative breadth is straddling the neutral line. TRINQ is bullish for Monday, but TRIN is neutral. My intermediate term system remains negative with no hint of turning back up as yet.

    We are in uncertain territory with respect to market direction. I am going to suggest to follow NAAIM and have some dry powder on hand, but not necessarily move to all cash, though that is really up to your particular risk tolerance and personal perspective. I am not calling for a big decline, I am only suggesting at this point that one may be coming. It is also possible that we get yet another rally when the market finally breaks out of its sideways pattern (since late February for the DWCPF; the S&P 500 still has slight discernable upward tack).

    The indicators will eventually tell us one way or the other. I am neutral for the new week.

  2.  
  3. #7046

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,058
    Blog Entries
    937

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After having a down week last week, the market started off the new week with even more selling.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    It didn't start out that way in the morning session, but the early rally faded to the neutral area for a while before succumbing to even more selling pressure in the mid-afternoon. Price closed near its lows of the day. The S&P 500 inched closer to its 200 dma, while the DWCPF, which had relative strength to the S&P 500, fell to its lows from last Thursday (still under the 200 dma). The charts are still not ugly, but there was some volume behind today's action.

    Cumulative breadth is negative and at the lower end of its trading range currently. Sentiment shows the OEX leaning bullish for Wednesday, while the CBOE is neutral.

    The market is due a bounce at the very least and the OEX suggests we may get one.

  4.  
  5. #7047

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,058
    Blog Entries
    937

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    While the market was underwater the entire trading session today, there was some rallies mixed in with the selling. Unfortunately for the bulls, it wasn't enough to price back over the neutral line.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So, the charts aren't looking any better. The 200 dma is now getting tested on the S&P 500. It held today, but we obviously may get a retest. Price remains on the 200 dma on the DWCPF.

    This evening, the options are looking on the neutral side. TRINQ closed at a low level, which is normally bearish. Cumulative breadth is at a 2-month low an in danger of going lower.

    This selling seems controlled to some extent, though it could certainly get worse before it gets better. The indicators suggest more selling, but we are due a bounce. The 200 dma may get taken out on the S&P 500 (head fake), so we'll have to be on the look out for that. It may be used to suck in more bulls before a move back up.

    Having said that, something may have changed too. Be open to the possibility of a more serious decline as things play out. My intermediate term system is NOT hinting at turning up yet.

    NAAIM reports in the morning. Remember, they got somewhat defensive last week. They saw risk rising.


  6.  
  7. #7048

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,058
    Blog Entries
    937

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market is seeing some volatility right now. Today's action was more or less a draw between the bulls and the bears and they fought over price direction.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Not a lot of change in the charts, though it's notable that the 200 dma continues to hold on the S&P 500.

    Breadth remains negative and was flat today. My intermediate term system remains solidly negative (bearish).

    Sentiment shows that the OEX and CBOE are bearish for Friday. Perhaps the biggest news is that NAAIM got more defensive, but they still have their bulls holding to their longs. I note that the bears in that survey have increased their shorts. This indicates to me that the bears are likely not done and lower prices are coming over the days ahead. It is not clear to me how much damage we might see, but I am still not expecting the sky to fall (at least not yet).

    I started out the week neutral, but I am shifting to a more bearish stance for the next few days.

  8.  
  9. #7049

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,058
    Blog Entries
    937

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    In my last post, I said the options were bearish and that NAAIM was indicating the likelihood of more selling. That was for Friday's action, which saw more decline in price. In fact, price broke through and closed below the 200 dma on the S&P 500.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Looking at the charts, I see possible horizontal support for the S&P around the 2725 area. The problem is, the DWCPF has already broken its horizontal support, so that doesn't bode well for support holding on the S&P, but we'll have to see. Both charts are essentially oversold.

    My intermediate term system continues to look bearish. Cumulative breadth is bearish. The A/D Line on the NYSE is ugly.

    Sentiment shows the OEX neutral and the CBOE bullish (for Monday). NAAIM is leaning bearish, but not heavily. TSP Talk is neutral.

    For what it's worth, gold had a nice up-day on Friday. Bitcoin (and crypto in general) have been doing well for weeks. Bonds are signaling trouble. Are these collective indicators a sign of potential trouble for the stock market? That would be my interpretation, but only that it's possible and not a given.

    I remain bearish for now. Try not to get too complacent. The market may be in more trouble than we think. That doesn't mean sell everything, but as I said a few posts ago, NAAIM was getting defensive and I suggested following their lead. Hopefully, you have some dry powder on hand should the market find a bottom.

  10.  
  11. #7050

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,058
    Blog Entries
    937

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bulls and bears battled once again to start the new week.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that the DWCPF was largely unchanged, but the S&P 500 edged lower. Volume remains elevated.

    This evening, the OEX is leaning bullish. The CBOE is neutral. TRIN is bearish and breadth edged up, but remains negative. My intermediate term system continues to look bearish with no hint of turning.

    The market remains in trouble unless the bulls can regain control. The OEX is bullish, but other indicators suggest any rally may not hold or go deep. I remain bearish.

  12.  
  13. #7051

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,058
    Blog Entries
    937

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Once again, the market gets the masses leaning one way (the bears this time) and turns price on a dime.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    It was a big move too. The kind that usually signals a bottom is in. There was volume behind the move and price certainly retraced a good chunk of recent losses. Is it out of the woods? It might be, but the charts still show key resistance levels that have not yet been tested, though the S&P took out its 200 dma today.

    The OEX was bullish for Tuesday's action and it remains that way heading into Wednesday. The CBOE is neutral. Cumulative breadth turned back up hard and actually flipped positive. That kind of move bodes well for the bulls. My intermediate term system is now showing hints that the market may have turned the corner, but it still remains negative (it's not a fast moving system). TRIN and TRINQ closed at very low levels and that's bearish for Tuesday, but given the market may have turned, even if we see some give-back it may not be much.

    I think today's action certainly supports looking for a spot to get reinvested, but it's only one day and while it was a big one that appears bullish, there's always the chance that the lows get retested.

  14.  
  15. #7052

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Once again, the market gets the masses leaning one way (the bears this time) and turns price on a dime.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    It was a big move too. The kind that usually signals a bottom is in. There was volume behind the move and price certainly retraced a good chunk of recent losses. Is it out of the woods? It might be, but the charts still show key resistance levels that have not yet been tested, though the S&P took out its 200 dma today.

    The OEX was bullish for Tuesday's action and it remains that way heading into Wednesday. The CBOE is neutral. Cumulative breadth turned back up hard and actually flipped positive. That kind of move bodes well for the bulls. My intermediate term system is now showing hints that the market may have turned the corner, but it still remains negative (it's not a fast moving system). TRIN and TRINQ closed at very low levels and that's bearish for Tuesday, but given the market may have turned, even if we see some give-back it may not be much.

    I think today's action certainly supports looking for a spot to get reinvested, but it's only one day and while it was a big one that appears bullish, there's always the chance that the lows get retested.
    I can't remember a harder market to time.


    Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

  16.  
  17. #7053

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,058
    Blog Entries
    937

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market added to its gains on Wednesday, which wasn't a surprise given the magnitude of the move in the previous session.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Both charts now show price above the 200 dma, but still below the 50 dma. Momentum is rising.

    Breadth didn't change much, but it does remain positive. TRIN and TRINQ are bearish for Thursday. The OEX is bearish as is the CBOE. Futures are negative.

    The indicators show that the market is likely to give back some gains on Thursday.

    NAAIM reports in the morning.

  18.  
  19. #7054

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,058
    Blog Entries
    937

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The S&P 500 continued to ascent today, but the DWCPF is lucky to just hold above its 200 dma. Interesting.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price on the S&P is beginning to approach resistance at the 50 dma. It's looking good even as the DWCPF is just treading water.

    The options are looking on the neutral side this evening. What I found telling is that NAAIM didn't get bulled up on the rally. They are holding neutral. That's reason to temper upside expectations. That doesn't mean the market can't continue to bias higher, but if the smart money isn't falling over itself getting long, there must be a reason. Breadth remains positive.

    If NAAIM had shifted more bullish, I would have been more comfortable being a bull, but since they didn't, I'm neutral.

  20.  
  21. #7055

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,058
    Blog Entries
    937

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I've been away from my computer for a few days and not able to post. Let's get to it.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The rally has continued despite any bearish indicators. It's really not a surprise under the circumstance. Price on the S&P 500 is now over its 50 dma. Price on the DWCPF is in the process of challenging its 50 dma.

    This evening, the OEX is leaning a bit bearish as is the CBOE. Breadth looks good and remains bullish. My intermediate term system flipped positive today and will likely hold that position for a while.

    Given the "V" bottom, price may very well eventually challenge the previous highs. Obviously, it will take some time yet. My intermediate term system supports that expectation. None of this is a given, but the odds favor that outcome. I am now bullish from my previous neutral stance.

  22.  
  23. #7056

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Orlando, FL
    Posts
    6,058
    Blog Entries
    937

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    A positive start to the trading session gave way to selling today, but the bears weren't able to push price too deep.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price was almost unchanged on the S&P 500, which kept it above the 50 dma. The DWCPF tried to push through its 50 dma, but was turned back and closed lower on the day.

    This evening, the options are leaning bearish. Breadth is still positive.

    I suspect the 50 dma may be a battle ground in the short term. We'll have to see how persistent the bears will be and whether the bulls can continue to counter their efforts to take control of price. The bulls still have the momentum for now.


  24.  
Page 588 of 609 FirstFirst ... 88488538578586587588589590598 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)