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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #7033

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH, Thank you for your posts, charts and very useful information! Especially rely on the NAAIM info. Your comments are very appreciated and the best!
    CURRENT: 9/12/18=G20, S35, C35, I-10 PRIOR: 8-29-19=S15%-G85% / 8-28-19 =G50%-S30%-C15%- i5% /7-18-19 G25%-F75%S / Chart Links=Page 215, #2575 & 2576

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  3. #7034

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    That 200 dma sure looks possible on the $SPX. I'm still 10% C S I (couldn't see it coming ) Looking to add when it does turn, but that day may be a 1000+ bounce day on the DJIA.

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  5. #7035

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by BooDog View Post
    That 200 dma sure looks possible on the $SPX. I'm still 10% C S I (couldn't see it coming ) Looking to add when it does turn, but that day may be a 1000+ bounce day on the DJIA.
    That is another reason I like NAAIM. If I can sort out how they are leaning overall, I don't have to worry so much about bobbing and weaving with the market. I think most of these money managers play it longer term. With TSP, that's probably a better approach.

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  7. #7036

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Monday's market plunge is going to have many bulls questioning their bullish conviction.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    While price on the S&P 500 has not tested its 200 dma yet, the same can't be said for the DWCPF, which saw price close below that key average. Head fake? Does the S&P 500 need to tests its 200 dma? As uncomfortable as it may be for the bulls, the bears might not be done yet.

    Breadth is now negative. My intermediate term system was already negative. The options were bullish for Monday and remain that way for Tuesday. It's the CBOE (dumb money) that's showing a very bearish sentiment reading (historically, that's bullish), but they've been right so far. Are they going to right again on Tuesday?

    The geo-political picture may very well be influencing markets right now. But NAAIM was still bullish overall. They've been pretty good predictors of future trading for a long time now. That doesn't mean they aren't susceptible to being on the wrong side from time to time, but it's been profitable to follow their lead.

    So far, we may be seeing an overdue market correction. Those are difficult to predict in many cases. For now, we'll have to watch the 200 dma on the S&P 500 for our next clue.

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  9. #7037

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After Monday's plunge, the market was due a bounce and that's what we got.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    It would have been more bullish if price didn't fall off in late afternoon trade, but at least the selling stopped (for now).

    Breadth has moved back to neutral. I note that TRIN and TRINQ closed at low levels and that could dampen any extension of Tuesday's rally. However, the CBOE is bullish again, but the OEX is bearish. Mixed signals make it tougher to make a stand on market direction, but I suspect the bears are not done and that the lows will be revisited once more. It may be Wednesday. We'll see.

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  11. #7038

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After a short period of selling early in the trading day, the bulls moved back in to take prices higher and build on Tuesday's gains.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on both charts appears poised to test the 50 dma. If it can get back over that average and hold gains, a bottom may be in.

    Breadth is bullish again. The OEX is neutral and the CBOE is bullish.

    NAAIM reports in the morning. I'm thinking we see more upside on Thursday, but we need to keep an eye on the 50 dma and whether it offers resistance.


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  13. #7039

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I thought the market might revisit its lows prior to any serious move back to the upside, but today's extension of the rally calls that possibility into doubt, which is fine.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that price has closed above the 50 dma on both charts. I'd like to see that recapture stick for more than a day or 2, however.

    Most indications suggest a low may be in, but I'm not sure for how long or how much upside we can expect in the short term.

    Breadth remains bullish. My intermediate term system is improving, but remains bearish. The OEX is bullish this evening, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM came is more bearish overall, though the bears aren't overly bearish. This suggests to me that we may have some volatility to contend with in the days ahead. The reading is neutral at face value.

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  15. #7040

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Friday, we saw price close below the 50 dma on both charts. I suspect we may be setting up a small bull flag.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Cumulative breadth dipped and remains bullish, but not overly bullish. It's near neutral. My intermediate term system remains bearish.

    Sentiment shows the OEX looking neutral, while the CBOE is bullish. NAAIM is neutral. TSP Talk got bulled up, which is bearish.

    As I stated in my previous post, I am thinking we may have some volatility to contend with this week, but the market is likely to eventually resolve to the upside. I am neutral for now.

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  17. #7041

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Friday's weak action bled over into Monday and sure enough we got the volatility the indicators suggested we'd get.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 has not retested its low and to this point the 200 dma has not been violated. The same cannot be said of the 50 dma, but that's where the battle appears to be. Price on the DWCPF is testing its 200 dma. It's a compressed area between the 50 and 200 dma's on that chart. Looking at the past several months, we can see price has traded in a range during that time. But it did hit a fresh high just a couple of weeks ago. Was that the top? NAAIM still shows a good number of bulls, though as a group they are more neutral as of last week. That suggests there is at least some trepidation about the short term. The longer term has been bullish and that has not changed.

    Breadth has flipped negative again. The options are neutral. I think we have more of the same on tap. It could be a battle this week.

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  19. #7042

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After being pounded lower the past couple of trading days, the bulls countered with a decent bounce.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    The bounce pushed price back towards the 50 dma on the DWCPF as well as the S&P 500. That's obviously an area of resistance at the moment.

    My intermediate term system remains bearish, while cumulative breadth went positive again. While positive is at least somewhat bullish, breadth is really bouncing above and below the neutral line right now. TRIN and TRINQ are both leaning bearish this evening.

    However, the OEX is bullish, while the CBOE is neutral.

    It remains a mixed bag as the tug-of-war continues..

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  21. #7043

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The back and forth battle between the bulls and bears continued today as the bears countered yesterday's rally with a push to the downside once more.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    But price didn't test Monday's low, which is a plus of sorts. On the other hand, the 50 dma continues to act as resistance. We should also remember that the 200 dma has held on the DWCPF.

    This evening, the OEX is bearish, while the CBOE is bullish. That combination tends to favor the smart money (OEX), so the bears may not be done. We'll have to see.

    Breadth remains positive, but sideways. My intermediate term system remains negative. TRIN and TRINQ are neutral.

    Overall, the indicators are still mixed, but do I favor more selling on Thursday. It doesn't have to be a lot if we get it. NAAIM reports in the morning.

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  23. #7044

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As expected, the bears continued to push price lower. In fact, they hammered the bulls pretty good and did some technical damage as well.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We can see that the DWCPF is leading the S&P 500 lower. On that chart, price closed well below the 200 dma. The S&P 500 is faring better, but price still remains below the 50 dma, so it's hard to get overly optimistic.

    This evening, the OEX is back to neutral, while the CBOE is bullish. NAAIM came in more neutral as the bears continue to reign in their shorts and the bulls aren't heavily bullish. Again, it's a neutral picture for this smart money. The fact that bears are not falling over themselves to short the market tells me it's not likely going to fall apart, though we could still see more selling.

    For now, the bears appear to have the upper hand, but I don't think they'll get a ton of downside traction based on the NAAIM reading.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
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