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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6973

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was a choppy day, but the bulls maintained control of price.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Momentum leveled off a bit, but is still positive. Price remains well above the 200 dma on the S&P 500, but is dancing with that same average on the DWCPF. We need to see that average take more control.

    The options show the OEX leaning bullish for Wednesday, while the CBOE is neutral. TRINQ is bearish this evening (1-day indicator).

    I'm cautiously optimistic that price will test the previous high on the S&P 500. If it can do that, we'll see how much resistance it offers. I'm looking for more choppy action on Wednesday.

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  3. #6974

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I was expecting choppy action today, but we really got more upside than anything, though the afternoon session saw the market give up some of its gains.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    I was looking for a test of the previous high on the S&P 500 and we didn't have to wait long for it as price hit both a fresh intraday high and a closing high.

    And I don't think it's a fake out either. Breadth is looking like it may just be getting ready for another ramp job (to the upside) as it's moved smartly higher this week (aside from Tuesday's back and forth action).

    The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is bearish. Momentum is decidedly bullish.

    I have this suspicion that the bulls may press their advantage over the days ahead. I'd hold long positions.

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  5. #6975

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    After posting a fresh high on Wednesday, the S&P 500 pulled back on Thursday.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    So did the DWCPF, but neither fell much and both remain above their respective 200 dma's. Momentum has paused, but not reversed. Breadth is still in a positive condition.
    Looking at sentiment, the OEX is bearish for Friday, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM was relatively unchanged, which keeps it in the bullish camp.

    My expectation has not changed. I am looking for an upside breakout; probably over the next week or so.


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  7. #6976

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    All 3 TSP stock funds posted big gains last week. In fact, the S&P 500 is breaking out to the upside. More to come?

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P is incrementally moving higher. There does appear to be some resistance, but the bears are not in the drivers seat. The one fly in the ointment is that price on the DWCPF is tracking sideways in the short term. I would be more bullish if it would follow the S&P 500 higher. My bet is that it will eventually do that.

    Breadth remains positive. My intermediate term system, while remaining positive for weeks now, is hinting at improving its bullish disposition as some of the indicators appear to be turning off of their bottoms.

    For Monday, the OEX remains bearish, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM remains in a bullish configuration and that's key for those that like to be long. TSP Talk got bulled up and that's bearish.

    Overall, the indicators are mixed, but the bulls have control. My expectation is more upside to come, but it probably won't be without some attempts by the bears to counter the bull's party.

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  9. #6977

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    It was an up/down kind of day, but the bulls prevailed once again.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Breadth remains bullish. My intermediate term system continues to suggest more gains are coming. The OEX is neutral, while the CBOE is somewhat bearish for Tuesday. I see no reason to not continue looking higher.

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  11. #6978

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Tuesday's pullback has my indicators looking on the neutral side, but the I don't think the bulls are done. I remain long.

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  13. #6979

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I was seeing a bit of an inverted H&S on the DOW. March madness. Quite the gap there on the VIX too. Holding off on any moves. Still 100% G.

    Signed,
    Frustrated.

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  15. #6980

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    We got a roller coaster ride for Wednesday, largely as a result of the Fed announcement of not hiking rates.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Yes, price is testing the 200 dma on the DWCPF, but the S&P 500 looks like it may be putting in a bull flag and well away from its 200 dma. The 50 dma on both charts is closing in on a positive cross of the 200 dma. But momentum is turning down a bit, so maybe the battle continues for control of price.

    The OEX is very high this evening, which is bearish. I'm not sure I trust it, given how high it is. The CBOE is neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

    I don't think the volatility is over, but I just can't get overly bearish on the readings as they currently stand. That doesn't mean we can't get more selling, but I just don't see enough evidence of a potential bigger move in that direction. The trend is up until it's not.

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  17. #6981

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Yesterday, I said that the trend is up until it's not and we got confirmation today that the trend remains up.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    I would like to see the DWCPF play some catch-up with the S&P 500, but the S&P at least gives us some solid evidence of who remains in control (the bulls).

    My intermediate term system remains positive and breadth remains decidedly bullish. The OEX was very bearish yesterday and I said that I questioned whether I could trust the signal give how much it had spiked. Obviously, it couldn't be trusted. Today, the OEX is on the bullish side, while the CBOE is a bit bearish. NAAIM came in near unchanged, which keeps it bullish.

    I don't see any reason to look for a meaningful top at this point. The trend looks to be intact (up).

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  19. #6982

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    👍🏻As always, much appreciated!
    P.S. I do agree.

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  21. #6983

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thanks again Cool! Appreciate your comments as always! Speaking of bulls has your friend heard from Birchtree lately?

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  23. #6984

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Scout333 View Post
    Thanks again Cool! Appreciate your comments as always! Speaking of bulls has your friend heard from Birchtree lately?
    No. It doesn't look like BT is interested in posting anymore.


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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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