Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Tag, the 200 dma is hit on the S&P 500. DWCPF next?

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Price isn't acting as though it's tired, but now that the 200 dma is being tested we'll soon see how much strength is left in this rally.

Momentum remains positive. Breadth is very bullish. The options are modestly bearish. Since breadth and momentum are in the bull's favor, I'd not bet on too much downside as yet. In fact, the SOTU may extend the rally. Of course, some might argue we may top right here based on the SOTU. I'm not in that camp.

In any event, it's speculation on my part. I remain bullish simply based on the indicators.

2741.77 (200)
SOTU another plea for unity. but that wall is impossible to penetrate.

The market had a modest pullback on Wednesday, but no technical damage was done. That is not a surprise given some of the technical indicators. Momentum and breadth can be difficult to turn (like a train once it gets going).

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DWCPF.png

What's a bit interesting is that this weakness, modest as it was, occurred just under the 200 dma on S&P 500. I do not think it's a precursor of a reversal; at least not yet. I am looking for an upside break of that key average before the market might see any significant selling pressure. It's certainly due given how much ground has been retaken by the bulls.

This evening, the OEX is bearish and the CBOE is neutral. Breadth dipped, but remains solidly bullish. NAAIM reports on Thursday.

I remain bullish, but watchful for a potential change.

I took a chance increasing my position a bit yesterday after telling myself I wouldn't chase. Only added a little bringing my C S & I to 10% each. So if this isn't just a short consolidation at least I can use my 2nd when it does bottom.

Good luck to all!!

So, the 200 dma is presenting resistance to price as the market sold off today. The bulls will point out that the market closed well off the lows, which is true.

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Technical damage is still contained, but momentum and breadth did turn down (not bearish as yet). But we have some interesting sentiment to ponder. The options are leaning bearish for Friday. Interestingly, NAAIM got more bullish and does not seem to be concerned about the downside. That tells me that while we can certainly get more short-term weakness, price is likely to rebound and challenge the 200 dma once more; likely breaking it for a day or two. If that happens, the market could reveal a bull trap and we'd see price head back down again for larger losses. That's just a scenario. It's at least as likely that price continues higher after a break of the 200 dma. I would follow NAAIM and give the nod to the bulls under these conditions.

Agreed that the retest of the 200 is essential. I would prefer to see us meander in the 2706-2741 range for a few days and then break through to the upside, decisively, on the third test. Good luck all!

So, the market is running into resistance at the S&P 500 200 dma. For the week, the C and S funds eked out modest gains, but the I fund fell hard.

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The market did manage to close for a gain on Friday, but perhaps more importantly it reversed losses to do it. So the bulls are fighting back. But momentum has turned down and breadth has as well and resistance is holding to this point.

The options are neutral for Monday. TSP Talk got more bullish, which is bearish, but NAAIM is also bullish and that's smart money. The upward trend has not been broken, but the 200 dma does need to be broken. I continue to look for an upside break, but even if we get it, we could see another attempt to take the market back down. So, things could get interesting in the days ahead. I'm bullish for now, but could flip as the market reveals its intent.

So, I've been favoring an upside break of the S&P 500 200 dma and price is once more knocking on that door. Today's rally certainly felt bullish. I think a break is coming soon.

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Price on the DWCPF is also near its respective 200 dma. Momentum has turned back up as has breadth.

The OEX is neutral as is the CBOE. Remember, NAAIM was bullish last week, so the turn higher is not a surprise. The question is, will the 200 dma be broken? As I said above, I think it will. But will it hold? We're probably going to find out soon. I favor the bulls.

Price on the S&P 500 closed above its 200 dma. Price on the DWCPF is testing its 200 dma now.

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Most of my indicators are neutral. Sentiment is neutral. Breadth is very positive. I remain bullish, but not complacent. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

Originally Posted by coolhand

Price on the S&P 500 closed above its 200 dma. Price on the DWCPF is testing its 200 dma now.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Most of my indicators are neutral. Sentiment is neutral. Breadth is very positive. I remain bullish, but not complacent. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

This market is making me sick. I got out too early in January and made 2%. Been waiting for a pull back ever since!
Haven't used any IFT's in February yet.
I don't want to fall into FOMO and jump in here but I may.
I missed all of the drop at the end of 2018 and was happy about that, but sure have messed up on this unbelievable rise!
It just won't stop!

Sent from my XT1585 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

Doesn't take much to give the market jitters imo. Futures were just up over 100 pts, now negative. If we could day trade.....