Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

The weakness I was anticipating on Monday never really manifested; though price did dip in afternoon trade (probably profit taking). The action is consistent with an intermediate term uptrend the remains in progress. I continue to look for a test of the 50 dma on both charts.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

The indicators remain bullish. Sentiment favors the bulls. The options are leaning bullish for Tuesday.

I am looking for a continued upside bias.

The anticipated upward bias continued today.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

We can see that price is approaching the 50 dma's on both charts. I really think they get tested at some point.

Breadth and volume remains bullish as does my intermediate term system.

The options are neutral this evening. While the market is due a pullback, I see no reason not to expect the upward bias to continue.

Thanks for the update. I see a further breakout to the upside in the cards. My target is still $265 on the SPY before a consolidation.

Sent from my XT1585 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app

I'm not posting charts this evening since nothing much has changed. Price continued rising as the indicators suggested. I note that price on the DWCPF is very close to testing its 50 dma, but is still further away on the S&P 500. My intermediate term system is stretched, but still positive.

The OEX is very bearish this evening, which suggests a pullback is in the cards. NAAIM reports in the morning.

[I'm not posting charts this evening since nothing much has changed. Price continued rising as the indicators suggested. I note that price on the DWCPF is very close to testing its 50 dma, but is still further away on the S&P 500. My intermediate term system is stretched, but still positive.

The OEX is very bearish this evening, which suggests a pullback is in the cards. NAAIM reports in the morning.


Coolhand, saw a market video this eve posted by nnut...wow, could not believe how bearish it was for long term (i think you are also, no?)...very constructive but the guy was so positive that bear market will occur/was here...showed stats on bear market occurs every 3,5 years on average and they last approx. 18 months (this was since 1930 as great depression was an outlyer)...keep up the good work and yer analysis is appreciated by everyone..oh yeh, will you wait the avg 18 mos to turn positive long term again? EJJ

Originally Posted by shitepoke

[I'm not posting charts this evening since nothing much has changed. Price continued rising as the indicators suggested. I note that price on the DWCPF is very close to testing its 50 dma, but is still further away on the S&P 500. My intermediate term system is stretched, but still positive.

The OEX is very bearish this evening, which suggests a pullback is in the cards. NAAIM reports in the morning.


Coolhand, saw a market video this eve posted by nnut...wow, could not believe how bearish it was for long term (i think you are also, no?)...very constructive but the guy was so positive that bear market will occur/was here...showed stats on bear market occurs every 3,5 years on average and they last approx. 18 months (this was since 1930 as great depression was an outlyer)...keep up the good work and yer analysis is appreciated by everyone..oh yeh, will you wait the avg 18 mos to turn positive long term again? EJJ

I remain longer term bearish. This is not a normal market. Listen to the X22 report for better clarity.

We got the weakness that was projected by the OEX on Thursday, but it didn't last the day. That is more confirmation that the bulls have control.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Having said that, the 50 dma is now in the process of the being tested on the DWCPF (the S&P is not there yet). My expectation is that price will break the 50 dma to the upside. The reason is that breadth and volume continue to favor the bulls.

The OEX remains on the bearish side this evening. The CBOE is on the neutral side. NAAIM came in a bit more bullish. They are not overly bullish, but that's okay. We can take the current reading and assume that risk remains to the upside.

So, I am anticipating more of the same in the days ahead. Bias remains to the upside for now.

The sellers have been trying to mount some downside action in recent trading, but it hasn't been nearly enough to offset the buyers. For the week, the S fund almost doubled the gains of the C fund, which is saying something given that the C fund was up near 2.5%.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Upside momentum is slowing on the S&P 500, but not as much on DWCPF. We can see that price is struggling with the falling 50 dma and has yet to push past that key average. Price on the S&P 500 has yet to tag its 50 dma and it's already slowing down.

The OEX is leaning bearish for Monday. TSP Talk saw a big jump in bullishness, which could bring some weakness (coupled with the OEX). NAAIM is leaning bullish as of late last week, so that would seem to indicate some degree of support of price in the short term.

My intermediate term system remains positive, but showing subtle signs of being toppy. Breadth and volume are still bullish, though stretched.

I remain bullish in the shorter and intermediate term, but bearish in the long term. The sellers may return on Monday, given the OEX and TSP Talk sentiment.

We got the expected weakness for Monday. It wasn't particularly deep, which is consistent with sentiment.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

We can see that price is falling off a bit, but I suspect it's a bull flag. Momentum has turned down.

The options are now neutral. Breadth remains positive as does my intermediate term system.

The selling was actually healthy if this market is to make up more of its past losses. There is resistance directly overhead, however, so we'll have to see how price reacts to it. So far, it's holding on the DWCPF.

I am neutral for Tuesday.

It didn't take long for the bulls to push prices higher.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price on the S&P 500 made a sizeable move toward its 50 dma. A test should be coming this week. The DWCPF saw price bounce back, but did not break resistance. I am looking for a upside break soon.

Breadth turned back up and remains positive. Volume favors the bulls.

The OEX is bullish for Wednesday, while the CBOE is neutral.

I am looking for more upside Wednesday. The trend is up, but resistance needs to be broken to get another leg higher in motion.

The upside bias continued today (no surprise).

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

While the DWCPF has a small upside breakout, the S&P 500 is only now testing its 50 dma. An upside breakout on this chart is probably more significant than the DWCPF since it's a chart that is widely followed. I'd prefer to see a decisive breakout, however, and not small incremental ones, but that may be what we get anyway; assuming the upside bias continues.

Nothing has changed with my indicators. The OEX is neutral to modestly bullish, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish for now.