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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6877

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    While we certainly have taken some hits lately there are no hot indicators in either direction.
    Fundamentally, everything looks fine. Sometimes its best to just hold your ground, in or out.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  3. #6878

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by WorkFE View Post
    While we certainly have taken some hits lately there are no hot indicators in either direction.
    Fundamentally, everything looks fine. Sometimes its best to just hold your ground, in or out.
    Perhaps not in the short term, but the longer term trend is down. I've learned that it's best to trade longer term in the direction of the trend.

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  5. #6879

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The OEX predicted higher prices today and we got that. But the sellers were still out there as price closed well of its highs.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    We have bear flags forming again with what may be significant support not far below. Note the lower lows and low highs. That's the trend (down). It's just controlled at this point.

    The options are neutral this evening. Breadth remains negative, though it did tick higher today. Momentum is trying to turn back up.

    So, the dance continues. NAAIM reports tomorrow.

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  7. #6880

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    the longer term trend is down
    No argument here.
    In Dog Beers I've only had two.

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  9. #6881

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by WorkFE View Post
    No argument here.
    I just wanted to make sure that anyone reading these posts understands the risks of being long in this market. Being long is going against the trend. However, while the trend is still down the market may track largely sideways within a trading range that affords both bulls and bears opportunities. But some of those opportunities have seen volatility, which makes trading them difficult. With only 2 IFTs in TSP, taking short term shots at the market is especially challenging under these conditions. My main concern is a much bigger decline that seems to come out of nowhere. We trade in sideways fashion long enough and some bulls may get comfortable that support is solid only to get hit with another leg lower. That would be my concern if I was trading this market.

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  11. #6882

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Exactly my fear!

    But now that you wrote it down I am hearing the "Land of the Lost" theme song in my head! Or at least the water fall part.


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  13. #6883

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The market traded in choppy fashion today and ended lower overall. Technical damage remains contained, but the charts remain bearish.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    While price on the S&P 500 was lower today, it did not test the lows. The DWCPF did test them and closed at a fresh low. Talk about a controlled decline. Controlled or not, it's still no bullish action when small caps are losing ground.

    The option are neutral. NAAIM did not change a whole lot, but I noted that they are not shorting the market much, which suggests that downside risk may have abated for the time being. Overall though, they remain a cautious group.

    My intermediate term system shows is deteriorating (it's already negative). Breadth turned back down and is at its lows.

    It seems like support is holding, but with the DWCPF inching closer and closer to a retest of its intra-day low on Monday, I'd not be comfortable going long without having my finger on the eject button if that support doesn't hold. Especially if we head lower on volume. But with NAAIM backing down on their shorts, I'm not looking for any significant selling in the short term.

    I'm neutral for Friday.

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  15. #6884

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Friday saw the market break some significant support lines as the downward trend continued. Small caps led the way lower for week.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Price on the S&P 500 closed at a fresh low on Friday. The intra-day low set on Monday is still holding, but that's not the case with the DWCPF as price also established a new closing low on that index. Momentum has turned lower. There is nothing bullish about these charts.

    So, NAAIM remains cautious as we head into a new week. They aren't falling over themselves shorting the market, but they aren't overly bulled up either. The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is bullish. What I'd be worried about if I was a bull was the how quickly TSP Talk got bullish. I suspect many were expecting support to hold as price danced around the lower end of its trading range prior to that survey being taken. I said on Thursday that since NAAIM was not embracing the short side that downside risk may have abated in the short term (but the upside was and is limited too). It wasn't a bad idea to take a shot at the long side under the circumstance, but I also pointed out that the trend is down, which means that support can fail at some point. That failure came Friday.

    My intermediate term system is negative. Breadth hit a fresh closing low. A-D Line volume on the NYSE is falling and hit a new low on Friday. Volume on the Nasdaq A-D Line is moving sideways and is better shape than the NYSE.

    There are plenty of other bearish indicators out there besides the ones I've already mentioned.

    I remain bearish and very much expect this downward trend to continue for some time yet.

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  17. #6885

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Late last week I warned that many bulls may get complacent near what appears to be good support, only to get pulled into the next down leg. I also pointed out (it was obvious, actually) that the trend was down. I said to go in the direction of the trend to reduce risk.

    The problem for those of us in TSP is that we can't short the market. We can't make any serious money in the G fund either. Under these conditions, we may develop a bullish bias because we want to believe that there is money to be made on the long side if we can just time it right. Otherwise, our account moves largely sideways (in the G fund). In a bull that's long in the tooth (we are no longer in a bull, by the way) trying to time those upside moves with 2 IFTs is very challenging to say the least. And it can be costly in a bear market (we're in a bear now). Patience is something that should be considered. With our restrictions, our accounts are better served in bulls markets. In bear markets we can potentially see years of gains wiped away in just a few weeks.

    I am not saying that's what is happening now, but it might. I am simply saying to ask yourself if you're assessing risk accurately. Trading markets takes discipline.

    Just something to think about.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Monday's action was pretty dismal for the bulls. It would certainly seem the next down leg may be in progress. Momentum is falling hard. Volume is up. Breadth is falling off a cliff from an already bearish stance. I note that RSI is at or very near an oversold condition on both charts, but they can get a lot more oversold, just as overbought can get a lot more overbought.

    The OEX is somewhat bearish this evening. The CBOE is in very bearish territory, but that's bullish from a contrarian point of view. I'd be careful in a bear market with bullish indicators. Since NAAIM is cautious and the OEX is at least modestly bearish, I'd not put too much stock in a bullish CBOE reading.

    I'd like to say that we're near a bottom, but I'm not feeling it. Is seasonality going to kick in? It's a slam dunk most years, but not all. This market is transitioning, so even seasonality may betray us this year. Rallies are getting sold. Sentiment has not been seriously beared up, which means capitulation has not occurred. Our own survey showed a lot of complacency this past week. It looks like it was a warning this time.

    I remain bearish.


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  19. #6886

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Good points, and I will have to say that I think it'll take a good degree of luck to nail upside moves in this market with the TSP. Patience is definitely the way to win especially with IFT delays. Heck, even trading upside in this market has been where I've gotten mostly all of my trading losses since Oct. Most of these moves up are gap ups that are quickly sold, making me think majority of these quick moves up are just short squeezes that have sellers jumping back in again when the price is right. In any case, right now, trading moves to the upside has been difficult whereas shorting has been easy money the last few months. I'm now just treating it as a bull market for the bears, and stopped being aggressive when it comes to picking bottoms.

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  21. #6887

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I think Wednesday's Fed Speak will be a pivotal day for the market. We are either going to start heading back up or fall even harder. I’m still in it for the long haul even though I have 50% invested in the “G” Fund and will maintain that allocation. The economy still seems to be chugging along pretty good while the media seems to say just the opposite. Hang in there everyone!

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  23. #6888

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The CBOE's bullish stance seems to have been a good indicator for Tuesday, but only if you're a day-trader. Those of us in TSP would not have been able to take advantage of the early gains, which largely evaporated by the close.

    S&P 500.png
    DWCPF.png

    Rallies continue to be sold. Price didn't deviate much from its previous close. Momentum did not turn up. Breadth ticked modestly lower. The A/D Line on the NYSE is plunging. The A/D Line on the Naz is not far from breaking its sideways action to the downside.

    This evening, the OEX is modestly bullish. The CBOE is now neutral.

    I don't have a clear read on the daily action for Wednesday, but we might get some upside from the OEX. The problem is, the headwinds for the bulls are significant and reversals are becoming more likely. The picture remains bearish on longer timeframes.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
coolhand's Account Talk
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