Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

It was another tough week for the bulls last week as all 3 TSP stock funds were driven lower with the C fund down 3.77%, the S down 2.48% and the I fund down 1.08%.

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Friday saw price close at a fresh low on the S&P 500, though it did not breach the intra-day low from late October. The DWCPF is not far above its previous closing low.


Breadth remains negative. Momentum is negative. My intermediate term system is bearish.


The options are looking bullish for Monday. TSP Talk sentiment came in neutral for the 2nd week in a row. NAAIM remains on bearish side.

For the new week, I remain bearish. Price is sitting near support levels now. Another break of support would likely bring even more selling.

The options were pointing to a bounce for Monday and given price was sitting on or near support a bounce was the likely outcome. We obviously got the bounce.

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Despite the rally, the market remains vulnerable. Momentum did turn back up, but breadth, which also turned up, remains negative. The OEX is neutral, but the CBOE is bearish. TRIN and TRINQ are bearish. These are daily signals.

We'll have to see whether the bulls can get any follow through come Tuesday, but the indicators suggest some selling. We know where support is and that is the battleground.

It was a mixed trading day Tuesday. The S&P 500 was up and the DWCPF was down. The bulls continue to struggle to get any serious upside traction. Note that the 50 dma is not far from having a negative cross through the 200 dma on the S&P 500 chart.

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The 50 dma continues to widen the gap between its 50 and 200 dma's.

The OEX is bearish for Wednesday. The CBOE is neutral. TRIN and TRINQ remain on the bearish side.

I am still not enamored with the bullish case. Support is still holding, so the bulls have hope, but I am not among them. Wednesday looks bearish based on the above indicators.

What just happened?!?! Tech stocks just started shooting up and they’re bringing the rest of the market with them!!


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Fed announcement was dovish (whatever that means), markets I guess like the idea of postponing rate hikes

FED Chair Powel just said he would use common sense in raising rates!

Makes sense I guess...

Originally Posted by sniper

Fed announcement was dovish (whatever that means), markets I guess like the idea of postponing rate hikes

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Originally Posted by ToddB

Makes sense I guess...






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Every once in a while the Fed will say something that has a big impact on stocks. Today was one of those days. It is not a secret that when the Fed is raising rates, it often means a recession (or even a significant sell off) is coming. Some were warning the Fed that they were risking a major downside event by being hawkish. I suspect that someone woke the Fed Chair up to that fact. In any event, the bulls got a big boost today, but they still are not out of the woods. Having said that, this market could rally significantly from here (not saying it will). We'll just have to see how long today's ramp job lasts.

As I stated in my previous post, the Fed rallied the market today by toning down the hawkish tone.

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Today's rally looks like it may have legs given price closed near its highs of the day. But the S&P 500 is better shape than the DWCPF, which is not a longer term bullish sign. Price is still below key averages on both charts too. Momentum has turned up. The few days should be interesting.

Breadth is rising, which is bullish, but it's still technically negative (bearish). Another pop higher could flip it positive. The OEX is neutral now. The CBOE is bearish. TRIN and TRINQ remain bearish for the 3rd day in a row. My intermediate term system is improving, but remains negative.

Remember that NAAIM has been on the bearish side in recent weeks. They report again on Thursday. That will give us a better idea of risk. For now, I'm neutral, but acknowledge that today's rally may get extended.

Despite some bearish readings in the indicators of late, selling pressure has not presented itself with the ferocity it did just a few trading days ago.

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Be that as it may, today's end of day fade could be an indication that traders are not taking the Fed's more dovish tone all that seriously. NAAIM did come in more bullish, but here's the rub; they backed off on the shorting, but there is still plenty or risk aversion reflected in their long positions. In essence, they are neutral.

Breadth was only marginally lower today and remains negative. The OEX is neutral and the CBOE bearish. TRIN and TRINQ are now neutral.

My read is that any serious upside may be limited from here, but that may also be true of the downside. I am not seeing a compelling case for either bulls or bears in the short term. Longer term I remain bearish. I will say that this market may have some surprises for us over the next few weeks as we make our way toward and into the holidays. I am not sure what kind of surprises they may be (bullish or bearish), but since NAAIM is still cautious I'm thinking we should be too.

Nicely put.

Another 'anything could happen' article FWIW:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/di...lly-2018-11-28