Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

The market had its 2nd up-day in a row on Friday, but for the week the 3 TSP stock funds were all down 1.25% or more.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Price remains below the 200 dma on both charts. The DWCPF had a negative cross of the 50 dma through the 200 dma. It isn't look good for the bulls. So far however, a retest of the lows has not been made, so the bulls do have some hope.

My intermediate term system remains negative, but fighting to flip positive. BPCOMPQ has been the signal denying that flip. Breadth is still negative, but fighting to rise. The options are modestly bullish for Monday, but NAAIM is reducing their long positions. TSP Talk saw a significant drop in bulls, but the reading is only neutral, though the size of the shift could be bullish for a day or 2.


My bearish longer term stance has not changed. The market continues to struggle. NAAIM's movement toward a more conservative stance should not be taken lightly. But I do look at it as a longer term indicator along with the technical indicators in general. The problem is, longer term is getting shorter the longer this market fights to stay afloat. Remember, it isn't a question of "if" the market falls apart, it's a question of "when". And that's darn hard to guess because of all the smoke and mirrors. I have no intention of leaving the G fund and have been there since early this year.


For next week, I'm leaning bearish.

As always, much appreciated and duly noted. Not sure what sources you're following, but there's some spooky stuff floating around now. Since I'm retired, I'll be much more defensive starting January 1. Not totally sure it's a good move, but I'm moving my balance to Edward Jones. My advisor is pretty adamant about a serious correction coming.

Thanks Coolhand,
Sharing and putting together all the data, that you do helps us all out a lot.
God Bless

I echo dannyboy’s sentiment and really appreciate your insight Coolhand, keep it coming!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thank you Coolhand! Your analysis and insights are Top-Notch and very helpful!!

The bulls got hammered to start the week. Price is inching closer to its October lows. A test seems likely sooner or later.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png


Breadth fell again and remains negative. TRINQ closed at a very high level, which is bullish for Tuesday, but TRIN closed down moderately so the market is at odds to some extent between different averages.

The OEX and CBOE are both neutral heading into Tuesday.


No change to my perspective. I'm bearish and looking for a test of the lows at some point. A bounce could come first after Monday's plunge.

It didn't take long for the retest of the lows happen. The test is still in progress as price closed at or near those lows.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Momentum is falling. Breadth hit a fresh low (bearish). My intermediate term system, which had been trying to flip positive prior the past 2 days of selling, has reversed course and is looking more negative. For some reason, the options readings have not been released this evening, so I don't have that to offer. If I remember, I'll try to post them early tomorrow morning.

As much as I hate to say it, I would not bet on a Santa Clause rally this year. Not saying it can't happen, but I am not optimistic. If you have been following me for some time, I would hope you realize that I try to maintain a balanced perspective. Earlier in the year I said I though we'd be safe holding stocks, but that longer term I saw trouble. That trouble may have already started.

Man, that is one ugly chart!
Thanks for the post!

Looks like we are going to bounce off support at the open. Whether it holds remains to be seen. The OEX came in neutral, but the CBOE is bullish. I'm neutral for Wednesday.

I wish everyone a safe and happy Thanksgiving! May you and your family be blessed. I offer a prayer this day

From: 1 Thessalonians 5:18; In every thing give thanks: for this is the will of God in Christ Jesus concerning you.

Thank you, God, for this food we are about to eat. And thank You for Your many blessings on us this past year...the ones we've seen, as well as the ones we haven't seen.
Thank you, God for the times You have said "no." They have helped us depend on You so much more.
Thank you, God, for unanswered prayer. It reminds us that You know what's best for us, even when our opinion differs.
Thank You for the things you have withheld. You have protected us from what we may never realize.
Thank You, God, for the doors You have closed. They have prevented us from going where You would rather not have us go.
Thank you, Lord, for the physical pain You've allowed in our lives. It has helped us more closely relate to Your sufferings on our behalf.
Thank you, Lord, for the alone times in our lives. Those times have forced us to lean in closer to You.
Thank you, God, for the uncertainties we've experienced. They have deepened our trust in You.
Thank You, Lord, for the times You came through for us when we didn't even know we needed a rescue.
Thank You, Lord, for the losses we have experienced. They have been a reminder that You are our greatest gain.
Thank You, God, for the tears we have shed. They have kept our hearts soft and moldable.
Thank You, God, for the times we haven't been able to control our circumstances. They have reminded us that You are sovereign and on the throne.
Thank You, God, for Your ability to take what we consider 'tragedy' and turn it into a treasure.
Thank You, God, for those You have called home to be with You. Their absence from this earth reminds us to keep our eyes fixed on heaven.
Thank You, God, that we have an inheritance in the heavenly places...something that this world can never steal from us and we could never selfishly squander.
Thank You, God, for the greatest gift You could ever give us: forgiveness through Your perfect Son's death on the cross on our behalf.
Thank you, God, for the righteousness You credited toward us, through the death and resurrection of Jesus. It's a righteousness we could never attain to on our own.
And thank You not only for our eternal salvation, but for the salvation You afford us every day of our lives as You save us from ourselves, our foolishness, our own limited insights, and our frailties in light of Your power and strength.
Thank You, God, for all that You have allowed and not allowed in our lives this past year. For we commit our lives anew to You this day and ask that You would continue to remind us, throughout this next year, that You are God, You are on the throne, and You are eternally good.
Thank You, finally, that we can pray in the name of Jesus, who made our access to You—and a personal relationship with You—possible. Amen.

Wednesday saw a bounce as expected, but the bulls could not hold on to the bulk of gains as the trading day wound down.

S&P 500.png
DWCPF.png

Nothing changed as far as the charts are concerned. Support has held (so far), but the action suggests it will eventually fail.


Breadth turned up, but remains negative. The options are largely neutral. NAAIM did not change much and remains on the bearish side.


Futures are pointing much lower as I type this post. I remain bearish.