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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #6001

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Cup and handle on the $INDU too coolhand.

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  3. #6002

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thank you for posting CH... I like your new "cloud type" graphs with extra baselines, etc.,

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  5. #6003

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Dutchy View Post
    Thank you for posting CH... I like your new "cloud type" graphs with extra baselines, etc.,
    I was looking for another set of indicators to go with what I was currently using. I thought maybe there was something out there that provided more information or at least context when looking at a chart and the Ichimoku indicators did that very well. There are numerous signals that can be derived from that system. I find it helps me visualize entry and exit points better.


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  7. #6004

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    ABT.png

    After hitting a target price right at the Leading Span B line, ABT has retraced most of its previous gains and is nearing support again in the $33 area. The technical indicators (MACD and RSI) are still pointing lower and we remain in the weak seasonal period, so support may or may not hold this time around. Price is already attractive for a longer term buy and hold play on this one, but I'd watch the technicals to try and optimize an entry.

    BAX.png

    Baxter International got hammered earlier this week and is now priced lower than it's been in over 6 months. RSI is showing an oversold condition, but price has really not turned back up yet. This is another good stock that's beginning to get undervalued.

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  9. #6005

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    One of the stocks that I own (BP) jumped in price this morning after a U.S. court halted some settlements related to claims over the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. BP said in a statement that the ruling "affirms what BP has been saying since the beginning: claimants should not be paid for fictitious or wholly non-existent losses."

    If and when BP gets past the bulk of the oil spill fall-out, I expect price to pop much higher. That is likely still some time out (probably 2 or more years) but they pay a nice dividend while I'm waiting.

    BP.png

    The chart is generally bullish, but there is no clear intermediate term trend as price has been range-bound for months.

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  11. #6006

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Baxter International is one of the stocks in my model portfolio and it's been beaten down of late.

    BAX.png

    The chart is still bearish overall, but yesterday's candlestick had a long tail that hints that at least a short term bottom may be in. RSI is still in an oversold condition and but momentum is sill very negative. Seasonality is still an issue too, as we've yet to have a large correction, but a lot of stocks are not participating in the overall uptrend of this market. So there are some longer term buy and hold stocks like this one that are looking more attractive.

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  13. #6007

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    SPX.png

    Did today's action get your attention? Feeling more bearish or do you want to buy the dip? The chart of the S&P is still bullish overall. I said in my last analysis that I anticipated more downside to come and that the Leading Span A line was a likely area to test support (in the 1660 area). We aren't there yet, but it's getting close. Notice that trend line support in the same area. This market has been putting in higher lows all year. Is this another one?

    While the chart is technically bullish in some ways, RSI is now negative and MACD is negative as well. My intermediate term system is still positive, but not by much. Bonds are holding their own. It isn't like fear is forcing money into those instruments the way it did many months ago. VIX is higher than it's been since late June. And seasonality is still negative.

    Sentiment? AAII is neutral. But our own survey is very bullish if current numbers hold close to where they are currently (65% bears). The auto-tracker is back over 40% stocks, but not by much, so there is some measure of dip buying on.

    And then there's the political battle over the shutdown with the debt ceiling debate (fight) on the horizon. Politics may indeed become an issue for the market. And you can't trade it.

    Normally, with the sentiment and technical picture readings I have right now, I'd be bullish for next week. And that may be the right call. But the political unknowns make me disinclined to make any big bets on how that is going to play out.

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  15. #6008

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Just wanted to point out that there is every possibility that any deal reached in Congress, be it short term or otherwise, could be a "sell the news" event. The logic that the market will rally on such an announcement is very appealing. But what if it doesn't? Do we have a rumor being bought right now?

    Just saying.

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  17. #6009

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Just wanted to point out that there is every possibility that any deal reached in Congress, be it short term or otherwise, could be a "sell the news" event. The logic that the market will rally on such an announcement is very appealing. But what if it doesn't? Do we have a rumor being bought right now?

    Just saying.
    Yes this is a possibility. I agree it may be mostly buy the rumor but it's the talk of tapering the taper for a year, also.
    Don't bias your charts. Show support and resistance. My comments and charts are not trading recommendations.

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  19. #6010

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Bquat View Post
    Yes this is a possibility. I agree it may be mostly buy the rumor but it's the talk of tapering the taper for a year, also.
    There are so many cross-currents right now. Grab some popcorn. Things could get wild.

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  21. #6011

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Just wanted to point out that there is every possibility that any deal reached in Congress, be it short term or otherwise, could be a "sell the news" event. The logic that the market will rally on such an announcement is very appealing. But what if it doesn't? Do we have a rumor being bought right now?

    Just saying.
    I agree, I think the rumor is being bought right now, if a deal isn't reached over the weekend it's bad, if a deal does get reached it's just as bad...

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  23. #6012

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Just like that...Poof!...it's gone.

    Today's rally coaxed some of the folks in the Top 50 that were sitting in the G fund to jump back into the market. Total stock allocations jumped from 74% back to 90%. So the tentative buy signal for next week is out of play again. But other surveys got more bearish, so sentiment is more supportive today than it was the past few trading days, but still not uniformly so.

    Watch out for the news driven volatility. I'm really not particularly trusting of this market right now, but will retain a 40% stock exposure at this point and look for the next opportunity to redeploy some capital.


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