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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #5953

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    EXC.png

    Exelon dipped below my price point yesterday and today ($31.50). It was downgraded yesterday as some analysts are expecting revenue headwinds. Still looks like a good buy to me. Dividend yield is around 4%.

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  3. #5954

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    FAX1.png

    Quick update on FAX. I was getting a bit bearish on this fund earlier in the month as it wasn't bouncing back the way so many other closed end funds were. But it looks like it may have bottomed out. MACD is slowly climbing higher and RSI, while still a tad negative, looks to be slowly moving higher. The 21 day moving average has flattened out too. I am of the opinion it will continue to appreciate, but it could be a relatively long climb back up the ladder.

    XAD.png

    FAX is heavily influenced by the Australian Dollar, which got hammered over the past couple of months or so. It too appears to have found a bottom and may be slowing turning back up.

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  5. #5955

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Here's what I see right now. Liquidity remains at very high levels. The Top 50 remain in about the same stock allocation they had at the beginning of the week, which is about 88% stocks. That's bullish in my eyes. The Total Tracker shows stock allocations modestly falling. That's bullish too. Our sentiment survey got more bullish. I do have to allow that the big money needs to reload at some point, but that doesn't mean the market has to fall apart. Just correct a little. The data I'm looking at suggests this weakness isn't going to last. I may add a bit more exposure to stocks today.

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  7. #5956

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I increased my stock exposure from 50% to 70%. My allocation will now be 30% G, and 35% each in C and S.

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  9. Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Your update on FAX was again very timely for me CH, as I also was again having grave doubts about this investment and was considering a jump out at the next bump up. Your new charts are quite encouraging ! I think I'll stick with it for a while longer. Please continue to keep us posted on FAX analysis.

    Thanks again,
    Best regards.


    P.S. Has INTC made it to your watch list yet?
    Last edited by tc5; 07-29-2013 at 07:38 PM. Reason: spelling correction

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  11. #5958

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tc5 View Post
    Your update on FAX was again very timely for me CH, as I also was again having grave doubts about this investment and was considering a jump out at the next bump up. Your new charts are quite encouraging ! I think I'll stick with it for a while longer. Please continue to keep us posted on FAX analysis.

    Thanks again,
    Best regards.


    P.S. Has INTC made it to your watch list yet?
    Hi tc5. So far this year, FAX is one of the few picks that I've had that turned lower on me in a big way. I am still relatively confident it comes back and intend to hold my position in it.

    Intel is indeed on my watch list.

    7-29-2013 9-09-54 PM.png

    It seems to be turning now and in my premium analysis this week I noted the green volume bars and thought MACD and RSI were trying to turn back up. But MACD has not had a positive signal cross as yet and RSI remains on the weak side. My buy under price is $22 as fair valuation is only in the $25 area and I'd prefer to buy it at more of a discount to fair valuation. There is reason to be cautious on this stock.

    7-29-2013 9-20-11 PM.png

    Intel is one of 30 companies that comprise the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. That index has been under pressure the past couple of weeks or so. MACD had a negative signal cross and is pointing lower, while RSI is now negative and also pointing lower. Intel doesn't necessarily have to drop because SOX is falling, but it's a real possibility. I see support for SOX around the 450 area should it continue to fall.

    I also think the market in general is poised to see more backing and filling, which means many stocks may see more selling pressure in the short term. Sentiment is still fairly supportive of the market, so in spite of some indicators turning down right now, I'm still thinking the downside will be limited. There's also some market moving reports on tap this week, not to mention the FOMC announcement. It could get interesting this week.


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  13. #5959

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Update on FAX. The fund is hitting fresh lows today. I had hoped it would hold above the $6.00 area, but it's already down almost 2.6% today at $5.88. Bonds are somewhat "iffy" in today's market given currency fluctuations and the expectation that rates will rise in the future. I think they should still be part of a diversified portfolio, but in the case of FAX the losses "may" go deeper than some may find comfortable. As such you may want to consider selling your position in FAX. I do not plan to sell mine as it is only about 3% of my total portfolio and the dividends it produces go towards other purchases. This is part of my portfolio management style. It is why I diversify my portfolio and not hold more than a 5% position in anything. Of course that also depends on how much one has to work with.

    8-5-2013 3-09-58 PM.png

    After rising for more than a month, MACD is turning down and looks to be triggering a negative signal line cross. RSI is weak after turning lower more than a week ago. The chart suggests lower prices are coming.

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  15. Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Hi CH-
    I was watching this disaster as it was dropping on Monday and bailed out completely as soon as it broke $6.00, then plowed everything into PDI which I had been watching for a while. This fund seems to be a bit more sound with a decent monthly dividend. Will take a while to recover what I lost on FAX, but I already feel better !! Do you have any perspective on PDI ??

    Thanks again for your insight, all of your posts are truly enjoyable.
    tc5

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  17. #5961

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Coolhand,

    Thank you for a must read thread and good luck with your Premium Service !!!

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  19. #5962

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Hello tc5. I didn't see this post until today. Let me get back to you later today on PDI.

    Quote Originally Posted by tc5 View Post
    Hi CH-
    I was watching this disaster as it was dropping on Monday and bailed out completely as soon as it broke $6.00, then plowed everything into PDI which I had been watching for a while. This fund seems to be a bit more sound with a decent monthly dividend. Will take a while to recover what I lost on FAX, but I already feel better !! Do you have any perspective on PDI ??

    Thanks again for your insight, all of your posts are truly enjoyable.
    tc5

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  21. #5963

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    PDI.png

    Looking at the chart, PDI has been hammered like most other interest rate sensitive issues ever since the Fed began talking about tapering back in May. It's trading in a somewhat narrow range, which isn't surprising given the yield on the 10 Year Note is still rising. I see that it is highly concentrated in mortgage-backed securities and it's also highly leveraged, which makes it an aggressive play. So if interest rates continue to rise, this fund will likely fall in price. That's not a given as we don't know for sure what interest rates will do in the months ahead. But at this moment, the 10 Year yield is hitting fresh multi-year highs.

    The fund is leveraged 47.8% compared to an average among CEFs of about 20%. So the high leverage coupled with rising rates could be a problem in the short term. It does throw off a nice yield thanks to that leverage.

    Since I view CEFs with a long term perspective and I happen to like monthly dividends a lot, I would not mind adding it to my portfolio, although I'd wait to see where interest rates are headed just in case I can get a better buy-in price. That's why I'm not yet pulling the trigger on IGR, which is a global REIT fund. It's hitting fresh multi-week lows today.


    Quote Originally Posted by tc5 View Post
    Hi CH-
    I was watching this disaster as it was dropping on Monday and bailed out completely as soon as it broke $6.00, then plowed everything into PDI which I had been watching for a while. This fund seems to be a bit more sound with a decent monthly dividend. Will take a while to recover what I lost on FAX, but I already feel better !! Do you have any perspective on PDI ??

    Thanks again for your insight, all of your posts are truly enjoyable.
    tc5

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  23. #5964

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    IGR is VEEEEERRYYYY tempting...

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