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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #5857

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    As much as the sell off in equities was a bit unnerving for the bulls, I find the sell off in bonds even more so.

    AGG.png

    That long, red candlestick makes me think there's more where that came from. RSI is oversold, but so what.

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  3. #5858

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    The bond market fear is that the economy is slowly rebounding and the Fed will eventually be forced to ease up on QE - then interest rates will rise and bonds will tank. The safest place to be is in good equities and I continue to like the large cap I fund.

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  5. #5859

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Some of my stuff turned back down again yesterday. The intermediate term remained on a sell regardless. I know that as of Tuesday liquidity was moderately high, but it's been getting injected at much lower levels the past month or so, so underlying support for price has not been nearly as robust as most of the rest of the year. The recent selling pressure in the bond market will generate some measure of fear, but I'm not embracing any notions of where that's going. The fact is that bonds and stocks are both selling off and tells me that uncertainty is becoming a part of market character. And uncertainty is not what the market wants.

    Futures are pointing to a big drop at the open, so we're almost certainly going to see some follow through downside action. How does this affect sentiment? That will be interesting. We are on a buy for this week with our last sentiment survey, so that's a plus for the bulls to this point, but I did notice we were slowly reigning in stock exposure on Tuesday. Technically, the S&P and Wilshire charts are still trading above their 50 dma and lower trend lines. But those look to get tested in today's trading. And it is OPEX, so current volatility is not unusual. And we're winding down the quarter too, which can often be supportive of price, but seasonality is negative.

    No easy answers in the very short term. I'm leaning bearish in that time frame, but I'll be quick to change my sentiment depending on how things play out.

    I did manage to buy ESD yesterday, but only got a partial fill at the low of the day's price of $18.72.


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  7. #5860

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Wilshire 4500.png

    Gaps lower and broken trend lines are showing up in a lot charts. Note where price is on this intermediate term chart of the Wilshire 4500. If we close below that lower trend line, there's a good chance lower prices are coming. And I note that AGG picked up where it left off yesterday and is down over 0.5% already. If the powers that be don't step in soon, this could get uglier.

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  9. #5861

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    All G. Too many bearish indicators lining up. While we may indeed see a big snap back rally soon, it could come from much lower, which defeats the purpose of trying to catch it. Since we're nearing the end of the month, I'm fine with going to all cash here. But remember, I have a lot of exposure to bonds and select stocks in my portfolio outside TSP and that also influences how I trade TSP. The indicators are what they are presently and that has me reigning in exposure to stocks.

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  11. #5862

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Forgot to mention that I bought more ESD today. Got my additional shares at $18.16/share.

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  13. #5863

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I think it's safe to say that market character has now changed. There was volume behind yesterday's move and it seemed like everything was selling off. Stocks, bonds, gold, etc.

    6-21-2013 8-26-46 AM.png

    This chart, which I have posted here several times before, foretold a likely downward move back when the S&P hit its intraday high on May 22nd. You can see that price got extended by a little more than 6% above the 50 dma that day. That's what that red line signifies. That's often a likely turning point as it has proven here. At the time, the Fed was still very much supporting price. So I only anticipated a possible pullback as far as the 50 dma. And we bounced off that line twice before yesterday. But then it was tested a third time and broke that moving average decisively. On volume. Now I've got my eye on the lower red line, which signifies price 6% below the 50 dma. That could be a target, so there's plenty of room for price to move lower still if this thing has legs (and I think it does).

    6-21-2013 8-29-24 AM.png

    The bond market is telling us much the same thing. Character has changed. It's been changing since the beginning of May. Looking at AGG, we can see that the 50 dma is getting ready to cross the 200 dma. Not good. And the selling pressure has been consistent for weeks now. Look at yesterday's volume spike. It's huge.

    I anticipate the next one or two months to be much more challenging for the bulls.

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  15. #5864

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Thanks for your analysis! Only in 15 % in stocks at this point but still looks like trend is downward. Hoping market takes a small bounce up today so I can bail and wait for a clearer bottom. I should have gotten completely out back in May when mACD went negative but I did not follow my strategy and was hoping for an upswing. Using first IFT today. I still kindof feel like the market over-reacted so maybe it will go back up a bit today... But just so volatile. Annie
    Don't take my comments as trading advice /IFT: 2-13-24=100G/https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/PermaCharts@p430#5159/strategy#4918p.410

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  17. #5865

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    Thanks for your analysis! Only in 15 % in stocks at this point but still looks like trend is downward. Hoping market takes a small bounce up today so I can bail and wait for a clearer bottom. I should have gotten completely out back in May when mACD went negative but I did not follow my strategy and was hoping for an upswing. Using first IFT today. I still kindof feel like the market over-reacted so maybe it will go back up a bit today... But just so volatile. Annie
    I would have liked to have kept some stock exposure in TSP yesterday, but the technical indicators weren't just bearish, they were saying the game has changed. While we are certainly due for a bounce, it's also possible the bulls could have a hard time getting out in the short term. I didn't want to take that chance and positioned myself for the intermediate term, which is decidedly down. You're actually in very good shape if you're only 15% exposed right now.

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  19. #5866

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Preliminary auto-tracker readings show the Top 50 flashing a buy for next week as their collective stock exposure fell from 94.6% last to a current reading of 71.8%. That's a drop of 22.8%, which in a bull market is a weekly buy signal. The Total Tracker has seen a much more modest dip in stock exposure as their collective exposure currently sits at 44.21%.

    Remember, this is only a preliminary signal. I don't have Friday's numbers yet. I'm also assuming this will remain a bull market. It may or may not. Only time will tell. But that makes the potential buy signal a bit suspect. Market character is changing so caution is warranted.

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  21. #5867

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    CH
    any clue as to why bonds are doing so lousy in tune with equities?
    E

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  23. #5868

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by shitepoke View Post
    CH
    any clue as to why bonds are doing so lousy in tune with equities?
    E
    My guess is that there is dissent among bankers regarding ultra low interest rates. There's just no end in sight for such a policy as current economics is still fragile. It's a precarious situation for the Fed. We've also got the uncertainty of the new Fed Chair in the not-to-distant future.

    As a side note, I've been wondering if Obamacare factors into any of this. I, like so many others, am not sure how that will play out. But if it's as expensive as some claim, it would not be a plus for this economy.

    And then there's furloughs. Mine starts in another couple of weeks. Just that much more money removed from the economy.


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