Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Originally Posted by coolhand

There's a high probability that the intermediate term is about to roll over to a sell if today's action holds. However, there's a good chance that volatility may keep folks guessing about the longer term in the days ahead. In other words, don't be surprised if we bounce back up to previous levels in the days ahead in spite of what I perceive to be increasing risk on the long side.

I think if the short-term longs don't drag this down, the long-longs (I love making crap up) will prevail.
Good to see you CH!

Originally Posted by Frixxxx

I think if the short-term longs don't drag this down, the long-longs (I love making crap up) will prevail.
Good to see you CH!

I love what you said... Made my afternoon. Anything... Just get that market moving up.:toung:

Intermediate Term is now on a sell.

2-23-2013 15-41-11 PM.jpg

Here's a chart of the Wilshire 4500 (S Fund). It's a longer term perspective, but I'm thinking this index sees a pullback to at least the 710 area in the months ahead (late Spring, early Summer).

Be wary of the weakness the market is currently experiencing. It could be a prelude to new highs in the not-to-distant future. I'm just guessing, but the current weakness may be allowing the big money to reload while all eyes are on the potentially "devastating" sequestration. Fear is ratcheted up. Everyone starts running for cover. Then, at the last minute, our politicos save the day and the market rallies to new highs as Armageddon is averted.

CH,

I don't think the politicos will save the day... It will just happen, then the fight over the Continuing Resolution will define spending priorities... I think we are in a time of gubmint retrenchment. And, I think that is a very wise thing. It will hurt, but it won't be the stupid furloughs and stuff. Hopefully, much of the bureaucratic garbage will be flushed away as we are forced to do more with less.

So, expect a pay period of furloughs, a smattering of gubmint shutdown, and an acceptance that budgets must be made and adhered to.

Originally Posted by Boghie

CH,

I don't think the politicos will save the day... It will just happen, then the fight over the Continuing Resolution will define spending priorities... I think we are in a time of gubmint retrenchment. And, I think that is a very wise thing. It will hurt, but it won't be the stupid furloughs and stuff. Hopefully, much of the bureaucratic garbage will be flushed away as we are forced to do more with less.

So, expect a pay period of furloughs, a smattering of gubmint shutdown, and an acceptance that budgets must be made and adhered to.

Of course, I'm just guessing what will happen just like so many others. I don't agree with the "do more with less" though. High level officials are even backing away from that tired old saw. If they allow sequestration to happen, we'll be doing less with less. You can't get blood from a turnip, but I'm sure some of them will try.

Originally Posted by coolhand

You can't get blood from a turnip, but I'm sure some of them will try.

Really!!! Then you've never worked at the IRS. An old joke from a friend who used to work their. He said someone had a display with a vial labeled turnip blood.

We are the Turnip! I think they have taken enough. mannaked.jpg

Originally Posted by Boghie

CH,

I don't think the politicos will save the day... It will just happen, then the fight over the Continuing Resolution will define spending priorities... I think we are in a time of gubmint retrenchment. And, I think that is a very wise thing. It will hurt, but it won't be the stupid furloughs and stuff. Hopefully, much of the bureaucratic garbage will be flushed away as we are forced to do more with less.

So, expect a pay period of furloughs, a smattering of gubmint shutdown, and an acceptance that budgets must be made and adhered to.

Don't forget elimination of tax loopholes!

That end-of-day spike lower may be an ominous sign for the market given our Pols opted to do nothing prior to March 1st. But there's still a bid under this market and that's kept this market afloat in a big way. I had opined in my blog that the big money might reload early in the week, which they did, and launch this market again later in the week. They certainly did a reload on Monday, although that wasn't apparent till well after our noon cutoff and I also thought we'd get more downside than we did. But they took the market higher the very next day and all the way through most of Thursday before that end of day sell off. Next few days are probably going to be very interesting. We'll now see how much the market actually cares or does not care about sequestration.

My indicators are in an intermediate term sell condition, but this market does not appear to be ready for a sustained decline. Not that it can't happen, but there's still plenty of strength putting upward pressure on price. Until that strength falls off, the downside will not come easily.

3-4-2013 18-27-15 PM.png

The S&P 500 is approaching its high of the year and has closed in an area of minor resistance. I anticipate it will tag a new high this week as RSI is rising as is MACD. If that happens it will certainly frustrate those in cash (G fund).

3-4-2013 18-30-26 PM.png

The dollar is on an upside tear as a fresh multi-month high was hit today. This kind of strength suggests there's more upside to come.