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Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

  1. #25

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by coolhand View Post
    Things looked on track to finally begin a rally, but the sell-off at the end was not a good thing. I got a buy on up volume as the downside moves were on low volume, but that sell-off is troublesome.

    The Fed is losing control (or maybe lost control). While AG has his fair share of detractors he would never have let things get this far out of hand.
    Like I said on some other posts, if Bernake and Paulson would have just acted (with the rate cut) in the last couple of days and not run their mouths, the S&P would probably be about 100 points higher now. Every time they do something positive, they more than make up for it negatively by opening their mouths. I agree about AG - at least he seemed to be aware of the influence his every word held with regard to confidence in the markets. What a couple of idiots!

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  3. #26

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by presskh View Post
    Like I said on some other posts, if Bernake and Paulson would have just acted (with the rate cut) in the last couple of days and not run their mouths, the S&P would probably be about 100 points higher now. Every time they do something positive, they more than make up for it negatively by opening their mouths. I agree about AG - at least he seemed to be aware of the influence his every word held with regard to confidence in the markets. What a couple of idiots!

    It is very disturbing when they just pop up out of the Blue on CNBC and tank the market's.

    Just another thing to look at on your list regarding making a move.

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  5. #27

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I'm going to dissent on AG, he kept rates really low for far too long. Yes, we had to get out of the dot.com oops, but after that, there was no reason to keep them so low. It discouraged savings (horrible returns so why save?), encouraged dollar hoarding overseas (dollars gained through trade deficits), and worst of all, encouraged borrowing, including borrowing on borrowing.

    After dot com, there was flip, and overbuilding of luxary housing and investing in fixer uppers. Low interest rates encouraged buying of property as an investment vehicle, and adding granite tops, stainless steel fixtures, and other nice looking, eye catching details to get more money on a flip. The only good thing about dot com was its longer term effects kicked the tech industry in the teeth and only indirectly kicked everyone else, and mostly left routers and over-produced now-obsolute ICs in its wake as junk. Leaving houses and finance as junk is a much more serious and reckless act.
    Last edited by Silverbird; 10-08-2008 at 08:26 PM.
    "All the prophets of Doom, Can always find room, In a world full of worry and fear..." - Protest Song, Monty Python


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  7. #28

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by presskh View Post
    Like I said on some other posts, if Bernake and Paulson would have just acted (with the rate cut) in the last couple of days and not run their mouths, the S&P would probably be about 100 points higher now. Every time they do something positive, they more than make up for it negatively by opening their mouths. I agree about AG - at least he seemed to be aware of the influence his every word held with regard to confidence in the markets. What a couple of idiots!

    Couple of idiots is right...

  8.  
  9. #29

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by presskh View Post
    Like I said on some other posts, if Bernake and Paulson would have just acted (with the rate cut) in the last couple of days and not run their mouths, the S&P would probably be about 100 points higher now. Every time they do something positive, they more than make up for it negatively by opening their mouths. I agree about AG - at least he seemed to be aware of the influence his every word held with regard to confidence in the markets. What a couple of idiots!
    Idiots or crooks with a master plan. I'm not a big conspiracy theory person but this is getting really stange. Why will he load up his team full of Wall Street GS people instead of experienced people from the S&L era?

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  11. #30

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Greenspan left rates low as long as he did to ensure that we were not going into deflation - he didn't want to see a repeat of the Japanese economy. I think we all now know what happened with housing and the irresponsibility of reducing standards to allow more unqualified folks to participate in the dream of home ownership - Donkey policies. The Fed will more than likely reduce rates again on October 29th down to 1%. How long they stay there is the current question - but we won't have another housing bubble but rather a slow progressive rebound and most of the foreclosures and other housing inventory will eventually dissipate. That's why I own home builder stocks and housing materials stocks - trying to plan ahead of the next train. I've been run over by the current locomotive so many times I feel like a nickle left on the tracks - but I keep getting up. As a matter of fact I bought some TRN today at $19.52 down from a recent level of $36.

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  13. #31

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    Greenspan left rates low as long as he did to ensure that we were not going into deflation - he didn't want to see a repeat of the Japanese economy. I think we all now know what happened with housing and the irresponsibility of reducing standards to allow more unqualified folks to participate in the dream of home ownership - Donkey policies. The Fed will more than likely reduce rates again on October 29th down to 1%. How long they stay there is the current question - but we won't have another housing bubble but rather a slow progressive rebound and most of the foreclosures and other housing inventory will eventually dissipate. That's why I own home builder stocks and housing materials stocks - trying to plan ahead of the next train. I've been run over by the current locomotive so many times I feel like a nickle left on the tracks - but I keep getting up. As a matter of fact I bought some TRN today at $19.52 down from a recent level of $36.
    Agree about Greenspan - he warned Congress in 2004 about Fannie/Freddie and of the impending disaster if they were allowed to keep buying risky mortgages. Also, because it served the interest of their minority voters, the Demo-rats in Congress squashed two bills introduced by Republicans (2005 and 2006) that would have reigned in Fannie and Freddie. I think the Republicans must be brain-dead - since the economy is the central issue in most voter's minds, they should be beating on this issue over and over. McCain doesn't have a snowball's chance of winning if he just drones on and on about foreign policy issues and doesn't effectively communicate on the domestic economy about the root causes of our current situation and how he intends to make it better. However, I must admit that economics is not McCain's strong point. I think the Republicans shot themselves in the foot by not nominating Romney - he had the best credentials of any of the candidates to deal with economic issues and also has a very good command of foreign policy issues. He also doesn't look and sound like a grumpy old broken-down man! I hate to sound like that, because I do admire McCain for his service to the country, but physical appearance and polish does matter in politics - Obama would not be in the position he's in if he looked and acted like Rev Al Sharpton. I think a Romney/Palin ticket would have been dynamic!

    I'll get off my soapbox for now.

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  15. #32

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I must agree with all your comments. But I think the paramont issue here is one of a character trait - who is to be trusted? I really don't want another Bill the fornicator in office. I'm satisfied with the last eight years and would be happy with a similar four years going forward.

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  17. #33

    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    I must agree with all your comments. But I think the paramont issue here is one of a character trait - who is to be trusted? I really don't want another Bill the fornicator in office. I'm satisfied with the last eight years and would be happy with a similar four years going forward.
    I think I would also be ok with McCain for four years. However, he has to be electable matched up against Obama. I don't like Obama's plans for the country - but he is a formidable canditate who brings the entire Democratic Party together. Although I will vote for McCain, I unfortunately don't see him beating Obama. However, he did surprise me by actually winning the Republican ticket - maybe he'll unveil some last-minute dirt on Obama and pull out a miracle win!

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  19. #34

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I am going to be out of pocket today taking care of some family business. Futures are high this morning, but that hasn't meant much lately.

    I no longer have any illusions about this market. I am painfully aware of what the indicators are saying, but this is no time to get complacent or think things will return to normal soon. The markets are telling us that there is no competence in the management of our global economic system. We got a .5% rate cut yesterday and it was thrown back into the face of central banks and the Fed:

    Global gamble: the fightback begins...

    It was the longest day in the battle to rescue the world's stricken economy from the financial crisis which had left banks teetering.
    Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor, reports from Washington

    Thursday, 9 October 2008
    The world's central banks and governments appear to be running out of ammo in the face of a financial crisis that has been intensifying by the hour.

    Even the unprecedented global interest-rate cut of half a percentage point yesterday had only the most limited effect, while the IMF called the credit crisis "the most dangerous shock in mature financial markets since the 1930s" and warned of a recession in the UK and elsewhere next year.

    The government action was, as one analyst summed it up, "like throwing a pistol at the problem once you've emptied the chamber".

    I am hearing this kind of talk from many of the respected traders I follow on the net and I agree with them. We may see some relief, but I'm now a seller of short term strength at this point. There's been too much damage to take excessive risks with our TSP funds. There appears to be yet more posturing going on by our leaders; as Tom posted this morning:

    "Today the SEC is lifting the temporary ban that they placed on short selling specific equities in mid-September. As you can see, if their plan was to stop the markets from being pushed lower, they failed. It has been one of the worst 2 to 3 week periods for stocks that I have ever witnessed."

    This strategy has failed in the past. History has told us that, and yet our leaders tried it anyway. They gambled with our financial futures and we lost. In any event, this could buy us the time we need to find an exit should one be in stox. I'd like some time to regroup in G and allow the markets to settle down at some level. I can only hope that if I see strength in the morning that it doesn't evaporate after I hit the sell button.

    I'm selling strength. That means on volume and breadth. It may be today, it may be tomorrow, but that's my plan. I will be no where near a computer most of the day today so I can't post during trading hours, but I can monitor the markets on my cell phone.

    Good Luck to All!

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  21. #35

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    This could be very bullish for us, short term anyway:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/27096646

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  23. #36

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    Default Re: coolhand's Account Talk

    I have to remind myself that emotion can get in the way of sound decision making. I talk about that from time to time, but I am just as susceptible as anyone to occasionally stray too far from center. Pressure can cloud our objectivity. My view hasn't really changed, but I always have to remember that the market can turn on a dime and with it emotion and strategy.

    Good trading.


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