Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

Originally Posted by coolhand

I will continue to take my chances with the SS regardless. There is no such thing as a holy grail of trading systems.

And confidence in the system is what you need.....

I haven't lost faith in what you have been representing here; and One Day switch is not a deviation to get in a snit about. (If anyone truly is!)

Kudos for sticking your neck out CH!

Originally Posted by Frixxxx

And confidence in the system is what you need.....

I haven't lost faith in what you have been representing here; and One Day switch is not a deviation to get in a snit about. (If anyone truly is!)

Kudos for sticking your neck out CH!

+1 Frixxxx,

I'll continue to follow the SS's also. Keep'em coming CH.

CB

Originally Posted by coolhand

IYB has made an adjustment to the SS for this particular market in an attempt to dampen the whipsaws, but I don't know what kind of adjustments he made.

Well I'm certianly not dissing the system, just echoing the usual IFT frustrations. I've had simular problems with whipsaws, in particular the previous one that caught your system. The problem is, if you smooth out the indicators to eliminate the whipsaws, you can dramatically increase the delay in the buy/sell signals almost to the point where you render the system useless.

Well at least he is not chasing the I fund to play catch up like a lot of our members are currently doing - and that is most likely a mistake. Today was a good day to be a stock buyer and the rest of the week we should be on cruise control.

Originally Posted by JTH

Well I'm certianly not dissing the system, just echoing the usual IFT frustrations. I've had simular problems with whipsaws, in particular the previous one that caught your system. The problem is, if you smooth out the indicators to eliminate the whipsaws, you can dramatically increase the delay in the buy/sell signals almost to the point where you render the system useless.

Yes. When the market dynamics change, so does a system's performance (to a greater or lesser degree). I have to go with what works over the long haul and not get concerned about the day to day action. Over time the system should perform very well.

I know you're not dissing the system but I have to respond in a manner that all folks reading can understand. Some folks may not have been following my posts long enough to know where I'm coming from. Any trader that's been around for any length of time understands performance is not constant. It can vary. But risk is part of that equation too, and that has to be managed as well.

I have also been blogging that our top 25% continues to be quite bullish and I don't think that should be taken lightly. Knowing that the selling has been pretty contained since March, folks may want to consider holding through the volatility rather than take a chance on being caught in a whipsaw. Or take on a partial amount off the table on a SS sell signal. Of course sooner or later a sell signal will come along that's not a whipsaw and will prove the G fund to be the best place to be for a given period of time.

For now though, I don't think we are there. I'm guessing our top 25% will have a greater cash level than we're seeing now when we get close to a major turn. I can't be certain about that, but it would surprise me not to see some bearishness creep in before a major reversal. I'm interested to see how that plays out.

Interesting post today from Marty. Looking forward to seeing the answer to his question tomorrow.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday...rketUpdate.htm

Another interesting tidbit of info with respect to today's PMI is contained in this blog:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...-negative.html

Originally Posted by coolhand

Interesting post today from Marty. Looking forward to seeing the answer to his question tomorrow.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday...rketUpdate.htm

Here's the follow-up post to yesterday's question about market direction from Marty...

http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-...rketUpdate.htm

At the surface, looks like a chance correlation, which is interesting, but without more study, can't make much sense of it.

Originally Posted by Uptrend

At the surface, looks like a chance correlation, which is interesting, but without more study, can't make much sense of it.

It's not actionable info and it was a little anti-climactic for me. I don't watch accu/dist signals much, but IBD does and have been whipsawed of late with their signals.

Originally Posted by coolhand

For now we need to see how this week plays out too. For all we know we could see another 2-5% decline in the market by weeks end. Under that scenario, the system would look prophetic. But I'm not going to shoot from the hip, as the market has a tendency to make everyone look silly who does.

Is it looking prophetic yet?