Stickan, round 3 and VIX:
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/inde...owtopic=108848
Just so some of you folks understand why I posted the link to Stickan's analysis and why I treat him with respect, here's a post from Mark Young who runs Trader's Talk as he reacts to some of the negative posts to Stickan's analysis on that MB:
"Right or wrong, Stig posts quality. I've made (and ChartSmarts Subscribers have made) a lot of money from some of the things he has shown us.
This isn't some nobody posting drivel, folks. He knows what he's doing. That doesn't mean he has to be right, only that it's analysis worth considering."
Mark
Stickan, round 3 and VIX:
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/inde...owtopic=108848
Thanks Coolhand !
Stickan and Adam Hamilton (and the ones like them) get my attention and highly gain my respect.
We've got a lot of smart guys (and gals) on the MB and I admire them a lot and appreciate the contributions they make. BUT I need someone outside of the MB like these guys to really 'keep me in the know'
Very few are gifted on their level. It's like a natural talent for them and the only times I can relate to anything like that is when I time it just right.
Much appreciated,
Steady
The NASDAQ is on its best momentum run in 11 years - it must be hard to push back on that strength.
The NASDAQ is on its best momentum run in 11 years - it must be hard to push back on that strength. The VIX going back to 8 - Jimmy Cricketts!!!
YW. Keep in mind that while Stickan is very knowledgable and provides detailed analysis, he has been known to be wrong just like everyone else.
Having said that I think the market will be moving higher as he pointed out. I am beginning to believe that the last SS buy signal was valid. This could be another large wave starting to the upside just like the one we saw in March.
Some exposure to equities is warranted right now. The H&S appears to be dead. I need to check a couple more things this morning before I make any IFT decisions.
Okay, here's my read. Sentiment is shifting. Bears are being converted to bulls and as that trend continues the chances for a sell-off go up. However, the underlying market strength cannot be dismissed lightly. Any sell-off may not be significant either. We should be seeing some short term weakness soon due to the overbought ST conditions, I'm hoping today and maybe more as the week goes on.
I am making the assumption now that the last SS buy signal was valid. Between that and Stickan's post I'm comfortable for now with an equity position.
While I may execute a trade today, I won't be backing up the truck just yet.
Disclaimer: I reserve the right to change my mind at any time.
Very modest IFT today. 5% each in C and S. I had hoped for more weakness at the beginning of the week, and since I didn't get it I'm not going to get crazy with the long side. I expect more weakness in the next few trading days, but in case I don't get much or we move higher I'll at least have some exposure.
Still a lot of folks in G fund, which means traders in general are probably still sitting in a lot of cash positions. Da Boyz are definitely making it tough.
This was the opening commentary for briefing.com today, and I certainly agree with their "sentiment". But that's been the problem in trying to trade this market. The wall of worry is huge, and for good reason, but given the scope of pessimism it's going to be very hard to play the downside based on "fundamentals". Still, I like reading level-headed commentary, even it's not consistent with what the market is doing.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Pub...ot/PageOne.htm
Dollar sell signal here. They have good TA, so this carries some weight. Don't forget the I fund factor.
http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/07/...-japanese-yen/
I was hoping for a pullback yesterday afternoon when I issued my first monthly IFT, and we were seeing some decent downside action around noon time, but once again underlying strength in the market stepped in and pushed the indicies higher.
Futures are moderately lower right now, but that's a poor indicator of expected market action. Actually, I tend to view it as a contrarian indicator.
My buy signals continue to be weak. What I mean by that is when I get a buy signal, market action should be weak, which usually means I'm buying on a dip. But lately my buy signals have been fleeting and offering little or no buying opportunity to time a TSP IFT. This is a definite sign of market strength.
I'm looking for more weakness in the next several trading days to buy in to, whether I get them or not obviously remains to be seen, but I have enough indications now to have some exposure to equities. At this point, I think the Intermediate Term (next 2 months or so) will see higher prices.
The one thing I do not want to see any time soon is another SS sell signal, and in this market it's a real possibility.
Last edited by coolhand; 07-22-2009 at 06:18 AM.
Still a lot of bears shorting the market and everyone is expecting a reversal at any time. There are some pockets of increased bullishness, but I'm not sure it's enough to off-set the bears who are pounding the table for a reversal. We know what happens when everyone starts crowding the exits.
Still, we are due for a pullback. But considering how this market has been acting I suspect we push higher for at least one more day, and if we dip, I'm not looking for significant damage.
For now I'm holding my position with just a 10% exposure to equities. I'd like to buy some I fund, but only on a dip. Intermediate Term still looks higher and that's what I'm basing my trades on. Not the short term.
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