Thread: coolhand's Account Talk

The action in the market moving forward is now critical. Do we see a continuation higher with volume and new highs or do we go back to business as usual?

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/inde...owtopic=108754

Coolhand,

I've been reviewing the 'Big Hitter' discussions in the 'Account Talk' section from October 2008 through the present. We had three huge bombs (October, November, and March) that present a very, VERY interesting picture in the rear view mirror.

You used to be far more bullish. Weren't we all.

I think - based on the gradual, and sustainable, upward slope since March 17 - that we should be 'in the market'. My fear has resulted in my return being only 40% of the growth since the low, and only 50% from the post boom point of March 17.

Also, the money on the sidelines has to see the next few months or maybe year as the last chance to make money before they have to adjust to new taxes and regulation. The growth will slow to a crawl soon.

We have to be in now because growth in the near future will be a Carteresque slug.

What is the Seven Sentinals saying? And, has it become overbearish via a computation change?

Originally Posted by Boghie

Coolhand,

What is the Seven Sentinals saying? And, has it become overbearish via a computation change?

IYB says the SS is still on a sell and the thread I posted previously provides his position on this. It's very compelling.

We are again at a crossroads. We are back up towards the upper end of the channel, but the game has really not changed...yet. Missing the past week's gains was unfortunate, but I've made money since the last SS sell, perhaps 1.5% or so. The IFT regulations keep me more cautious than I might otherwise be, but don't forget the carnage from last year until the rebound this past March.

I am looking for a possible entry point in the event we see increased volume leading up to new highs. I might also enter a partial long position if we consolidate on mediocre volume too. OPEX is done for now, so it's time to see what the market is really made of.

http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm3.html

Coolhand,

My instincts are like yours, but I think waiting will be catastrophic. I don't see any big dumps ahead - I mean, even after this huge run-up we are still at a region where most of the worst bear markets fall to. That tells us how miserable the last two years have been...

Once the market adjusts to a miserable market correction (-20% to -30%) rather than a miserable crash (the -40% we are currently at) then it will either get choppy again or run flat with no real gain. In either case, the game is over for C/S/I.

I've got to grab what I can because we are in for a Jimmy Carter Recovery soon. Once there, you may as well invest in bonds I'm very concerned, but I intrinsically know that the next four years of gain will occur in the next four months. Miss it and C/S/I will look like F/G.

Does anyone out there think raising taxes, increasing regulation, bloating union power, and protectionism is going to provide a Reagan recovery. Or will it do as it has done before - the Malaise Economy.

The Four Bad Bears

Off to the Padre game...

Originally Posted by Boghie

Coolhand,

My instincts are like yours, but I think waiting will be catastrophic.

Catastrophic? Sounds like you've already made up your mind what you'll do next. Good luck. I may or may not join you. But I'm watching intently.

Off to the Padre game...

Are they Ted Leitner's Padres these days? or "your" Padres. Ah Ted, I remember him from his KFMB News 8 days. Quite the entertainer.

CoolHand,

They are mostly 'my' Padres for the most part this year. Ted is definitely at arms length this season. We lost our Cy Young Award pitcher and our awesome Number 2 for the year. Hopefully today's young pitcher steps up - he is supposed to be the next Peavy.

And, yeah, I think I'm going 'all in'. Spent the weekend watching the World Series of Poker; yuk, yuk... I just don't see anymore 6% daily crashes right now. I can survive the 2% - 3% down days. Just not day after day of 5% dumps.

My current fear is that we will soon be in a 5% equities growth period. That doesn't beat the G Fund by enough to play the game.

I think I will see ya all in soon.

From a friend's house...

Adios...

We will be approaching a market of stocks rather than a stomping stock market and diversification will be the winning strategy. But first comes SPX of 1300 to rescue all those 401K plans that held during the previous market panic. Life will be devine for the fearless investors who buy their ticket now.

Originally Posted by Birchtree

We will be approaching a market of stocks rather than a stomping stock market and diversification will be the winning strategy. But first comes SPX of 1300 to rescue all those 401K plans that held during the previous market panic. Life will be devine for the fearless investors who buy their ticket now.

I'll have some of what you're drinking...or smoking.

So should I suppose you'll let us know when to sell out and at the next top near 1300?

This guy doesn't post much, but some of his calls in the past were right on. You'll like this post Birch. I may yet be sorry for laughing at you.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/inde...owtopic=108776