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Thread: JTH's Account Talk

  1. #1

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    Default JTH's Account Talk

    It's about time I started my own account talk so I can stop polluting other's threads with my tripe. My goals for the rest of the year are simple. Stay ahead of the S&P 500, try not to invest more then 50% and try to keep one IFT in my arsenal so I can buy more if this market has a serious crash. I don't plan on staying invested much for the remainder of the year. I just want to snipe my gains and get out.


    F Fund - Looking at the weekly charts AGG hasn't had more then two
    positive weeks in a row YTD and we just had 2 positive weeks.... If it gets back down below 99.25 I may buy in 25% for a short 10 cent profit.


    C Fund - On the weekly it's been trading sideways the last two weeks. I'd like to enter in below 1220 but only if the market conditions are right. I still firmly believe we need to see more pain and get into the 1100s.


    S Fund - On the weekly this chart looks the strongest. Perhaps we can ride this up to 595 before we hit major Resistance.


    I fund - I wish the I fund would do better, I've had terrible luck this year timing it. I'll be curious to see how next week fills in this chart.

    I'm waiting to see how this monday plays out before I decide on my next IFT. Idealy I'd like to see some more downside before catching the next wave up. It would be nice to re-test July 15's bottom and see if it holds.


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  3. #2

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    JTH, excellent 1st post!

    I think we are about to rally. We would need a pretty big catalyst to retest and/or break 1200 again, IMO.

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  5. #3

    Thumbs up Re: JTH's Account Talk

    I had to look up the word tripe (just kidding), I've always found your
    comments and thoughts truly helpful. But to see your first post looking
    as cool as it does, you can count on me to stop back quite often.
    Who knows, maybe I'll throw a little tripe on the frying pan too !

  6.  
  7. #4

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    JTH.

    Your charts look pretty good. The black background sort of sets them apart.

    Please use an acknowledgement when you use other material, text, charts, etc.

    Example:
    Charts courtesy of [xxURL="http://www.stockcharts.com/"]www.StockCharts.com[/url]

    Remove the two "xx" and you will get:

    Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com


    Need any help, give me a PM!

    Rgds Spaf

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  9. #5

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Corepuncher View Post
    JTH, excellent 1st post!

    I think we are about to rally. We would need a pretty big catalyst to retest and/or break 1200 again, IMO.
    Thanks Corepuncher and I agree. With all the bad news we recieved latley it would be hard to get back down to the 1200s. But we seem to be trading sideways the last two weeks and haven't really fixed any of the problems that got us down here in the first place. I don't mind jumping in within this trading range, I'd just hate to get caught on the downside if it decides to go South.

    Quote Originally Posted by squalebear View Post
    Who knows, maybe I'll throw a little tripe on the frying pan too !
    Thanks Squalebear and I think you owe me more tripe then anyone else here so free free to stop by anytime.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spaf View Post
    Please use an acknowledgement when you use other material, text, charts, etc.
    Thanks Spaf I'll be sure to edit the links as you requested, I would have done it now, but apparently the edit post feature has timed out. By the way I always enjoy your weekly market talk and you've pointed out some things that people should be caustiously aware of. This trading range, PSAR, STO, and MACD could serve as a warning.

    For me, all these warnings tell me I'd like to re-test July's lows before getting back in. It doesn't mean I'll get the opprotunity but it does mean I'll be cautious and quick with my IFTs this month.

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  11. #6

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    I believe the July 15th low was a result of naked short selling by greedy bears - the law is watching now so I would not look for a retest.

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  13. #7

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Birchtree View Post
    I believe the July 15th low was a result of naked short selling by greedy bears - the law is watching now so I would not look for a retest.
    You bring up a valid point Birchtree, especially with the recent short restrictions placed on the financials. One thing I admire about you is your ability to see the big down days as buying opportunities and to not get caught up in the selling panic.

    I'd still like to see a re-test of July's short term bottom so I can catch more shares and scale back into G on the way up. If I don't see the lows then it's no big deal and I'll catch the wave as best I can.

    If it's one thing this market has proven to me, it's that it has been lacking in stability and predictability... :toung:

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  15. #8

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    It looks like Iím a day late and a dollar short. I see no reason for me to jump in today. If I did, then Iíd probably get whacked the next day.

    On the S&P if we can pierce and stay above 1275 then that would impress me enough to follow in. For now this market has to prove to me that itís worthy of my money.

    I wish the F ĖFund would have dived more today, if it had I might have bitten off a little piece.

    I still think S is the way to go, Iím hoping it will drop down more.

    Hope everyone has a good day

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  17. #9

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    S&P 500's recent 3 peaks

    Jul 23 1282.1899
    Jul 30 1284.26
    Aug 5 1284.88

    I don't know about you but I wouldn't exactly say these three peaks qualify as higher highs. Still looks to me like we are trading sideways.


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  19. #10

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Check out P&F Chart School in the Technical Analysis thread...if you haven't already.

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  21. #11

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    I always enjoy Tom's daily market brief and often give it more weight then others, but tonight I think his analysis has been the best of the many sources I draw from.

    Great work Tom!

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  23. #12

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning everyone.

    Well it seems like today is one of those days where I can't find a good reason to make a move. I still have my 2 IFTs.

    I'd like to see more downside in F, perhaps getting closer to the bottom bollinger band.

    For the up side, I'd like to see 1277 hold for the C fund. But I sure don't see any good reason to chase the dumb money. (JMHO) For the downside I'd like 1225. Funny thing is it looks like this market will forget about the financials as long as oil continues to weaken.

    I still like the S ($EMW) fund the most. I'm not sure it has the momentum to push through the overhead resistance of 583. If it gets back down to 570, then I'll re-evaluate.

    Has anyone noticed the S looks like it's forming a wedging pattern?

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