Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Good morning (Post 1 of 2)

For those of us who invest in sectors, as of Friday, there's been a significant re-alignment between Tech and Finance. I've always disliked the fact that Mastercard and Visa were in Tech, well now they've been moved into Finance, perhaps where they belong.

LINK: Several Information Technology Companies Will Move to Other Sectors

"After the close on March 17, 2023, changes to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) structure will go into effect in GICS Direct and in S&P DJI’s indices. These changes will affect most sectors and will change what it means to be sector neutral. "

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The Day of Weak stats largely remains below the 21-Year 54% Daily win ratio. If we look at the Average of all losses across Thur/Fri we can see they are worse than the 21-Yr -84% avg.

Last 2 Friday's closed down more than -1%, last 3 of 4 closed down more than -1%, last 4 of 7 closed down more than -1%, and Thursdays don't look much better.

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Good morning

If I IFT the 60C back to G, then the market will dump me on my head at the close.

Regardless, here's a minor update to the historical 63-Year months of March correlated with 2023's March.

On 10-March we closed at the 3861 level (the average of all 23 losing months of March).
On 21-March we closed at the 4009 level (the average of all 63 months of March closes).

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Sorry if I tank the markets today...

IFT 100G EoB today (Paper Trading).

Well…there it is…hard rally and then massive sell all in a day. Thanks for heads up. 😝

Good morning

Having watched the late sell off last night, for those invested we've closed above the 200 SMA (did not pierce it) and have not pierced the Fri/Mon low, WtD we are 1.16% and today the futures have stayed positive. I suspect we should expect a pause day as folks might have overreacted to the conflicting news (thanks Janet).

Progress report: For myself, the 8-day 60% C-fund allocation yielded 1.33% that's the 2nd IFT this month, so I'll watch March finish out from the sidelines.

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Good morning

SPX Pre-markets were largely in the red this Friday morning. Based on the previous 21-years of opening Gap performance, we can expect a 29% chance of a positive close.

See Column 3
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Good morning

In Europe we finally went through our time change. This 2-week period between the States & Europe screws with me more than you might think, so I'm glad to be back to the 6-hour difference with the markets again.

It wasn't a great week for news, but it was a decent week for the markets. The S&P 500 closed up 4 of the last 5 trading sessions, closing the week up 1.39%. Thus far this year, Tech has been the leader, with the the NASDAQ 100 up an impressive 16.70% YTD.

S&P 500 Weekly
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Participants in the Top 600 of the AutoTracker gained .63% this week. The Top 50's G-Fund is still the dominant slice at 52.2%, but the CSI allocations have increased 16%.

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For a long-term view, applying a Linear Channel 112 sessions back to the October Bottom, we can see the index is under the mid-value line, with -3.05% risk to the downside and 7.06% reward to the upside.

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From a shorter perspective, going back 36 sessions off the February top, we are oversold. From this viewpoint we can see the index is well over the mid-value line, with a .53% reward to the upside, and -4.49% risk to the downside.

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Post 2

17-March Big changes in the S&P 500 Friday highlight the power of index provider "The net effect: technology’s weight in the S&P will drop from roughly 27.7% to 24.5%, while the weighting of financials will expand from 11.5% to 14.2%. "

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On March 17th, the S&P 500 Index weightings changed, which also changed the Top-50 I've been tracking.

Cliff notes:

-- The Weighted Top-50 now make up 54% of the Index (Old weighting was 52%).
-- AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) has entered the Top-50 at spot #40, while COP (ConocoPhillips) has left and is now #58.

Chart below: Of these 10 Companies shared between the S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100, their combined weighting has increased. If you own these 10, then you own 55% of the NASDAQ 100 and 26% of the S&P 500.

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For the weighted Top-50's performance against the major moving averages:

-- The Top 10 of 50 make up 27.59% of the entire index.
-- 9 of the Top 10 are above the 10-SMA
-- 8 of the Top 10 are above the 50/100 SMA
-- 7 of the Top 10 are above the 200 SMA

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Last week, the weighted Top-50 contributed 1.07% of the S&P 500's 1.39% 5-day gain.

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Good morning

Today the futures have been positive, it's the last week of March, the last week of Quarter 1. If the markets were rigged, then this is the time to rig it.

For the Day of Week stats, there's been some modest improvements as most of the stats now pull data from 2023. The exception is Monday due to the 4 holidays falling on this day. For the win ratio, Wednesday has been the weakest, while Thursday has been the strongest. Last 2 Tue up, last 2 Wed down, last 2 Thur up.

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Per the Google:
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Weekly S&P 100 on top, weekly S&P 500 on the bottom. Not much difference....
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