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Thread: JTH's Account Talk

  1. #9109

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    Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    Good afternoon

    Here's the present status of prices based on historical Februaries, Quarter 1s, and years from 1960-2022. All timeframes are displayed Monthly.

    1.47% MTD the S&P 500 has breached above 2.74% which is the average of all positive Februaries, the month is looking good.

    20230205-MNTH-STAT.png

    ___
    7.74% QTD Our 1st quarter chart looks great too, we've already closed above 7.12% which is the the average of all positive Q1s.

    20230205-QRT-STAT.png

    ___

    7.74% YTD Lastly the yearly chart, we can see the 63-year average of all closes is 8.15% and this 4152 level was already breached on the 22nd trading session. So in theory, if you exited on Thursday and stayed in the G-Fund for the rest of year, you will have beaten the average returns for the previous 63 years.

    20230205-YR-STAT.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  3. #9110

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    Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    Good morning

    There's a minor change to the Auto Tracker chart, it now shows full year participants only. For this week, 2/3rds of all members are in the G/S funds, while the Top-50 is all in on the S-fund. A member since 2011, Talking2jets is the only participant outperforming all funds (impressive). Also, the Top-50 is outperforming the entire board by over 2X both MTD & YTD (also impressive).

    20230205-AT.png

    ___

    For the Day of Week chart, overall the 27/55 day stats are still below the 54% 21-year win ratio. Mondays have been the weakest with 8 of 11 closing down, but bear in mind (going back to December), there have been 3 holidays falling on a Monday, so to get 11 Mondays we have to go back further in time than the other days of the week.


    20230205-DoW.png

    ___

    ​Here's a new chart with a different perspective. The S&P 500 is comprised of 503 holdings. By weight, the Top-50 make up 52% of the index. This chart tracks the Top-50's prices above & below the 10/50/100/200 day simple moving averages. My goal here is to look for warning signs for when the markets momentum has turned.

    As of now, it looks healthy:

    The Top-2 by 12% weight (Apple/Microsoft) are above all 4 moving averages.
    The Top-5 by 18% weight are above the first 3 moving averages but below the 200 SMA.

    20230205-T50.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  5. #9111

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    Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    Good morning

    Reading Tom's Blog this morning, he discussed interest rates in relation to market performance (from a technical analysis perspective). This had me wondering if I could find a correlation between the Monthly Effective Fed Funds Rate, and the S&P 500's performance.

    So I sorted across the 1/3/6/9/12 Month timeframes. Admittedly, I was somewhat disappointed, with the results, as there was no "smoking gun", there are some correlations, but the bulk of the data is conflicted. Perhaps it's possible this index is better shielded against a rising rate, and maybe a smaller cap index would generate more clearly defined results. I'll post a chart each day this week, starting today with the 1-Month chart.

    NOTE: Comparisons are made with Column 7 which is the 63 Year 1-Month Average. For this data, the Median rate is 4.68% while our current rate (today) is 4.58%

    Columns 1 & 2, when the interest rate is in the 0-3% range, the win ratios are higher, but the average gains/losses are mixed. In column 6, when the interest rate was higher than 8.27% the Win ratio went down -10% below the 63 year average. And while the average of all gains were higher, the overall averages were lower, and the average of all losses were also lower (than the 63 year average).

    20230205-FED-1.png


    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  7. #9112

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    Columns 1 & 2, when the interest rates were lower than 3.00% the win ratio was above the 63-year 3-month win ratio.
    Columns 6, when the interest rates were higher than 8.27% the win ratio was lower than the 63-year 3-month win ratio.

    Concerning the average of all gains, all averages, and average of all losses, there was no distinct correlation I could identify.

    20230205-FED-3.png

    NOTE: Comparisons are made with Column 7 which is the 63 Year 3-Month Average. This is not just quarterly, this is all 3-month periods. For this data, the Median rate is 4.68% while our current rate (today) is 4.58%


    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  9. #9113

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Post #2

    According to ChatGPT:

    20230205-LIST.png

    ___

    Unfortunately, ChatGPT is limited and restricted, it does not have the data I need for world domination, so I'll have to do this myself
    This somewhat convoluted chart is a visual representation of the amount of days and percentage range above and below the 50-SMA.

    Column 1-5 tells us the S&P 500 closed below the 50-SMA 33.9% of the time.
    Column 6 tells us the S&P 500 closed 0% to 2.49% above the 50-SMA 32.63% of the time.
    Column 1-3 If I were trading based on this data, I would likely, buy here. Only 7.9% of the days/time were less than -5% below the 50-SMA.
    Column 8-10 The same in reverse, I would likely, sell here, as only 6.8% of the days/time were more than 5% above the 50-SMA.
    As of this Monday, we closed 3.83% above the 50-SMA, which would fall into Column 7 where the index has been 26.67% of the time.

    Attachment 57214
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  11. #9114

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Alright, the previous 50-SMA chart was too confusing to read (even by my standards).

    Long story short, Monday, we closed 3.83% above the 50-SMA. This falls within Column 8, where 26.63% of days closed in this range (or 1408 of 5287 days). If we were to move further right into Columns 9/10/11/12 then this may warn us we are getting overbought.

    Attachment 57224
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  13. #9115

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good afternoon

    Looking 6 months past what was the current monthly Effective Funds Rate, we can see that when the rate is under 1% the Win Ratio and averages were better than the 63 year average (Column 1). But again, as the interest rates rise, the averages don't show a distinct correlation. So 6 months out from a rate hike, does not always mean the returns will fall.

    20230205-FED-6.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  15. #9116

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    Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    Good morning

    Nothing unusual to report. On Wednesday the S&P 500 closed 3.88% above the 50-SMA. When compared to the previous 21-years, this is in the Top 15% of closes and would fall within column 9.

    20230209-50SMA.png


    ___

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Looking 6 months past out (into the future) what was the current monthly Effective Funds Rate, we can see that when the rate is under 1% the Win Ratio and averages were better than the 63 year average (Column 1). But again, as the interest rates rise, the averages don't show a distinct correlation. So 6 months out from a rate hike, does not always mean the returns will fall.
    Per the usual conversation the 9-Month charts is similar to the 6-Month.

    20230205-FED-9.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  17. #9117

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    Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    I've submitted some questions to the TSP.GOV since I'm uncertain what the answers are.

    1) I would like to transfer a portion of my TSP traditional account, into two separate Traditional IRAs at two different times, is this possible?


    2) A portion of my TSP is tax exempt, will this present a problem or trigger a taxable event?

    Of course of you know these answers, please assist if you can, thanks
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats


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  19. #9118

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    For the S&P 500 Top-50 by weight, 10 are above all SMAs including the Top-2 AAPL/MSFT, while 6 are under all SMAs. In the short-term, we can see the 10-SMA has taken a dip, but the overall total score is 57%, so nothing too concerning at the moment.

    20230209-T50-W.png

    ___
    Of those Top-50 which are 52% of the entire index, here's a sector breakdown, noting that the Real Estate sector is not represented in the Top-50.

    20230209-T50-S.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

  20.  
  21. Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    Here's a CPA's website and a retired fed who specializes in FERS and TSP financial advice. His blog may have some insight into your questions JTH.

    https://www.barfieldfinancial.com/ne...nsfer-a-how-to

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  23. #9120

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    Default Re: Sunday: Bears take the lead

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinetic View Post
    Here's a CPA's website and a retired fed who specializes in FERS and TSP financial advice. His blog may have some insight into your questions JTH.

    https://www.barfieldfinancial.com/ne...nsfer-a-how-to

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    I've submitted some questions to the TSP.GOV since I'm uncertain what the answers are.

    1) I would like to transfer a portion of my TSP traditional account, into two separate Traditional IRAs at two different times, is this possible?


    2) A portion of my TSP is tax exempt, will this present a problem or trigger a taxable event?

    Of course of you know these answers, please assist if you can, thanks
    Got a reply.

    Thank you for contacting the ThriftLine Service Center. We will be more than happy to assist you with your rollover inquiries.


    You can request two separate partial distribution rollover requests, but you can only request one partial distribution per 30-day calendar period.

    Combat Zone pay contributed as Traditional contributions is separate from the rest of a participant's traditional TSP money and will not be taxed. Earnings on those contributions will be taxed upon withdrawal.

    As always, if you have any additional questions or concerns feel free to respond to this email, utilize our live chat option, or call in to the ThriftLine for assistance at 1-877-968-3778, Monday through Friday, from 7:00am est to 9:00pm est.

    ThriftLine Service Center
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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