Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Interesting as always! Maybe it's a little confusing to say January was the worst month. If I understand this, as an example January would be the lowest month if stocks went up every single day of the year, so by default the first trading day in January was the yearly low?

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Interesting as always! Maybe it's a little confusing to say January was the worst month. If I understand this, as an example January would be the lowest month if stocks went up every single day of the year, so by default the first trading day in January was the yearly low?

True, it's not accurate to say Jan is the worst month, since all years start with Jan and most years are bullish. To get an accurate assessment, I'd need to do this chart 12 times, each starting at the next month. But this data was mostly hand-jammed, I couldn't get the conditional formatting to work correctly with google sheets. Along with doing this on a rolling 12-month, I'd also like to do it with max gain as well. But damm, I think it would take me (with my skills) a full day's work

IFT CoB Today, 25G/75C (From previous 40G/60C)

That leaves 1 IFT left to buy more if we go lower from here.

Originally Posted by JTH

Small update, I hate to re-post a chart, but I hadn't noticed on the last day of Nov we closed the month above the 9 month SMA.

Good morning

Damm me, reposting this a 3rd time, the Avg. Loss was calculated incorrectly. The revised numbers are significantly stronger (to the downside) compared to the previous chart, sry about that, I'm still a bit rusty.

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Good morning (again)

For those who are curious, the previous 63 Decembers closed down 16 times for an average loss of -2.50%

From this November's 2022 closing price, we are now below this -2.50% level.

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So much for a Santa rally.

The Santa Clause rally doesn't officially start until the 21st -- goes through the first two trading days in January. He still has time.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

The Santa Clause rally doesn't officially start until the 21st -- goes through the first two trading days in January.

I'm hoping that's correct cause I'd love to jump in 2 to 3 days strait for some upside pump, and then quickly jump back out before the Mega-Crash of 2023. That may get me out of the negatives for the year.
We'll see . . . . . That would be nice.
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Originally Posted by tsptalk

Interesting as always! Maybe it's a little confusing to say January was the worst month. If I understand this, as an example January would be the lowest month if stocks went up every single day of the year, so by default the first trading day in January was the yearly low?

Good morning

Still trying to figure out how to sort the monthly high/lows on a rolling 12 month timeframe. I could do this by hand, but it would take days and be subject to human error. I've been knocking my head trying to figure out how to highlight the max cell from 1 column of rows 1-12, 2-13, 3-14 etc, then filter it by the months, so I can make pretty chart...

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Anyways here's where I'm at for the month and where I'd like to buy/sell, happy Friday!

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Happy Sunday

I had to enlist the help of a google sheets community forum to crack the formula needed. These charts record 3/6/12 Month Highs & Lows for each month.

As an example on the 1st chart:

January was the 3-month high 60 times (or 11.2%) of 538 3-month highs.
November was the 3-month low 48 times (or 9.6%) of 501 3-month lows.

Across all 3 charts, January has the most 3/6/12 month highs, while November had the most 3/6 month lows.

Important to consider, Jan 1961 was a 12-month high, but so was the next FEB/MAR/APR, so a 12-month high does not mean the market has peaked. Overall these statistic are unique, but they don't really tell you where to put up a caution flag, (good to know) but difficult to trade with this specific set of data.

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Good morning

For December's trading day 8-12 there's an interesting observation:

Trading day 9 (last 9 of 11 closed down), trading day 11 (last 7 up) and last 10 of 11 closed up.

20221211-TRD.png


For the day of the week chart, the last 55 days are statistically weak, would you believe the last 9 of 11 days closed down? Also, the last 4 Mondays closed down, and last 3 Fridays closed down.

20221211-DoW.png