Thread: JTH's Account Talk

JTH - LOVE these graphics! I didn't realize how many times there were single day jumps this large. Since buy and hold folks often cite to the statistics about "missing the 10 biggest days" I wonder if there are any patterns for these BIG move days (over 3%)? Do they usually occur on a particular day of the week, or mostly in fall months, etc? Glad I was largely in for yesterday and looking like I may stay for the December joy. Thanks again!

Originally Posted by flalaw97

JTH - LOVE these graphics! I didn't realize how many times there were single day jumps this large. Since buy and hold folks often cite to the statistics about "missing the 10 biggest days" I wonder if there are any patterns for these BIG move days (over 3%)? Do they usually occur on a particular day of the week, or mostly in fall months, etc? Glad I was largely in for yesterday and looking like I may stay for the December joy. Thanks again!

Thanks, it's a bit difficult to quantify and I don't have an engine for back-testing. During those 21 years, If we took the best 180 days > 2% and worst 229 days < -2% this is how these days look. These are not percentage gains listed, just where those days fall on the timeframes.

Overall the last 3 months have the most good days, while the first 3 have the most bad days. For the trading day of the month, the 1st 5 days and last 7 are in a dead heat. For the day of the week, TUE/WED looks good, FRI looks the worst.

I've been thinking of setting aside some funds for statistical investing next year in my brokerage account, it would be fun, but I haven't setup a rules based system yet.

20221127-BEST & WORST.png

JTH, great charts. One favor though. Could you make the non-chart information font a little larger.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

JTH, great charts. One favor though. Could you make the non-chart information font a little larger.

Sure, are you talking about the google sheets data rows/columns?

I believe they are talking about your typing.
EX: Good morning

Originally Posted by WorkFE

I believe they are talking about your typing.
EX: Good morning

That makes since, my browser is at 125% so I never noticed

I automatically expand my browser when reading your thread

Small update, I hate to re-post a chart, but I hadn't noticed on the last day of Nov we closed the month above the 9 month SMA.

Attachment 56392

2022-12-01-MNTH-DEC.png

Originally Posted by JTH

20221127Gain.png

Good morning

After a strong up day, do we get to hold onto those gains or should we exit?

Here's a part 2 for "How often the index closed up within a percentage range." This time we've measured the 3-day cumulative performance after those single up days.

Listed in the bottom right corner are the 21-year 3-Day averages, where we have a 57% win ratio (the benchmark for this chart). For the 0-1% & 1-2% column, we can see we are inline with the 3-day benchmark. However, from 2-6% the win ratio dips significantly, (but there is also significantly less days counted). My guess would be the smaller up days keep sellers at bay, while the larger up days, make them take some gains off the table.

20221127GainPART2.png

Love the font size

Good morning

There's nothing unusual to report. This week's trading days 3-7 are very average. On the Day of the week chart, the last 55 day's 38% win ratio is below the 21-year 54% average. Also, we've lost -2.82% over the last 3 Mondays. Meanwhile Wednesday & Thursday have been stinkers, but last Wednesday did gain 3.10%

2022124-DoW.png




For some perspective, here's a Monthly chart comparing 2022 to the previous 63 years of positive and negative averages.
The price swing from Jun/July & Sep/Oct is epic!

2022124-63-22.png