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Thread: JTH's Account Talk

  1. #9001

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Putting a number of these comments/charts together for today. If today gaps up, good day to sell. Because gaps up usually end up and Monday after Thanksgiving normally does opposite of Friday after Thanksgiving. However, Friday after Thanksgiving is normally opposite of Wednesday before T-giving which was up yesterday. So if today looks like a down day, hold on to Monday where the trend has been over 1% rebound. Thanks for all the data!

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  3. #9002

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Wait... what? So, Wednesday was up, and now Friday is up, barely, with no gaps... At resistance at the moment, maybe we punch through on light volume? Not much time left. Worst case we're at a mini double top and we lose some ground next week. Not much I'm thinking as consumers should be out consuming.
    50% S, 50% C 06 Mar, was 100% G; 80% S 20% C COB 08 Jan '24; 100% G COB 14 Nov; was 100% C COB 31 Oct (Boo!); was 100% G COB 12 Oct; was 50% C, 50% S COB 22 Jun; Life is good!

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  5. #9003

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    So what do they say about patterns? - as soon as you identify one it changes? But, it looks like for the S&P 500, Friday went opposite (slight drop at close) Wednesday (barely) as the trend had been. But barely. So I decided to hold on to my C shares to see if Monday follows the S&P 500 trend identified in the "Thanksgiving 2011 to 2021" chart that showed when the Friday after Thanksgiving was down, the following Monday went up by over 1% all but one year (2013). Here's hoping for a big Monday Good luck to all and have a great weekend.

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  7. #9004

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Thanks, those are all great points, and ya know the holiday weeks always mess with my statistical mojo.

    Last 3 of NOV vs. 1st 3 of DEC. It doesn't look all that great to me, in 2021 the last 3 of NOV lost 2.86% but it's stats, they love to prove me wrong


    3+3.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  9. #9005

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by flalaw97 View Post
    So what do they say about patterns? - as soon as you identify one it changes? But, it looks like for the S&P 500, Friday went opposite (slight drop at close) Wednesday (barely) as the trend had been. But barely. So I decided to hold on to my C shares to see if Monday follows the S&P 500 trend identified in the "Thanksgiving 2011 to 2021" chart that showed when the Friday after Thanksgiving was down, the following Monday went up by over 1% all but one year (2013). Here's hoping for a big Monday Good luck to all and have a great weekend.
    The daily stats are sometimes useful (for me) to determine what edge I can go for when using an IFT. I think the gap stats are better than the day of the week. Aside from that I'd rather look out to the Monthly & Quarterly stats and the larger moving averages.
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  11. #9006

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Based on this data, a gap down on Monday might be a good time to buy, while a gap up on Friday might be a good time to sell.
    Good afternoon

    The Gap history is largely unchanged, for all days combined, I've decided to go back a full 55 days (instead of 21) to match the Day of the week chart. Of the last 11 Fridays that gapped down, 10 closed down.

    20221127-GAP.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  13. #9007

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    Not much to report for the Day of the Week stats. Wednesdays & Thursdays have been the the poorest performers, so perhaps it's time for them to show a rebound or at least equalize with the daily statistics.

    20221127-DoW.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  15. #9008

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    The good news, if you punch in an IFT close to the noon deadline, you have a great chance of getting a closing price in the same direction as the noon deadline.

    With a 91% win ratio and 1.81% avg. gain, Friday has historically been the best day to sell. Amazingly enough, it's also been the best day to buy.


    20221127-IFT.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  17. #9009

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Interesting information and perspective. Thank you !!!
    Lordy, Lordy, Bless my Soul, I got the right Key baby, but the wrong Keyhole........ ~ Steven Tyler


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  19. #9010

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Epic View Post
    Interesting information and perspective. Thank you !!!
    Thanks Eric, I love to sort and crunch these numbers, it's somewhat relaxing for me. This Tuesday marked the 3rd concurrent close down. In the previous 21 years, this type of event happened about 8% of the time. Technically speaking this statistic should be more like flipping a coin, but for fun we can suppose that the odds of SPX closing down 4 days in a row is about 3.2%.

    20221127-ROW-.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  21. #9011

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Well, as we finish out the month, I'm in a holding pattern with one remaining IFT which will likely go unused. On Tuesday I tried to look for reasons to enter, but could not find a compelling enough reason to take the re-entry and buy more. I don't like starting off the next month knowing my next entry is more likely to be a buy vs. a sell, but it is what it is. But, if we take a nice dip in the 1st week of December, then i will feel much better about my decision

    20221130-CHART.png
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  23. #9012

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning (3rd post today)

    As we close November out, we now have December and the joy this fabled month brings us. If you look to the far right bottom corner we can see the 21-year all months average win ratio is 64% and December has been above this average across various timeframes & conditions. All the best, as we finish out the year!


    Attachment 56362
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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