Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Originally Posted by OBGibby

Okay, I'll bite - what is the Reader's Digest version of Mr. McClellan's outlook?

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boom. then bust. then some more boom, but just a little bit. then more bust. after that more boom.

Originally Posted by OBGibby

Okay, I'll bite - what is the Reader's Digest version of Mr. McClellan's outlook?

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That basically it will follow the highs and lows on this chart, which I snipped from the presentation...it's freely available so I can post it...but if you look back at the last few years you can see that you certainly can't rely on this chart at all (at least for the short-term squiggles)...but regardless, he expects a low very soon, maybe yesterday...a rally into Feb/Mar...a lower low in early April...rally into the summer...then another big fall into October...then year-end rally. Play that like a fiddle and you can be #1 in the tracker.

McClellans 2016 roadmap.JPG

Originally Posted by burrocrat

boom. then bust. then some more boom, but just a little bit. then more bust. after that more boom.

Whew! At first I thought you said two booms and three busts...read it again and saw that it was three booms. All in on Monday!

Originally Posted by Tsunami

That basically it will follow the highs and lows on this chart, which I snipped from the presentation...it's freely available so I can post it...but if you look back at the last few years you can see that you certainly can't rely on this chart at all (at least for the short-term squiggles)...but regardless, he expects a low very soon, maybe yesterday...a rally into Feb/Mar...a lower low in early April...rally into the summer...then another big fall into October...then year-end rally. Play that like a fiddle and you can be #1 in the tracker.

McClellans 2016 roadmap.JPG

Thanks, Tsunami. I like McClellan's thoughts that the low may already be afoot.

T

Originally Posted by OBGibby

Whew! At first I thought you said two booms and three busts...read it again and saw that it was three booms. All in on Monday!

uhhh, i don't think that is a very good idea...

Thanks for all the great comments, I did watch the video twice, it lines up with my overall expectations.

Moved JTH-ALPAFS (PnF) over into the G-Fund EoB today.

And the slaughter continues...

The divergence of performance between the S&P 500 & Wilshire 4500 has expanded beyond the upper outer bollinger band, under normal conditions I'd expect a snap back, but in this case I'm not holding my breath.

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Originally Posted by JTH

Nothing like having your worst yearly start ever!

Trading the Stats:**Week 2

Attachment 36615

Attachment 36616

Huh! It's striking that 20 of the worst Week 1 starts occurred in just the last 39 years. Not sure what that means exactly, but more than half are among the worst ever. That says something! Market character has obviously become more volatile as compared to pre-1977.

Originally Posted by Khotso

Huh! It's striking that 20 of the worst Week 1 starts occurred in just the last 39 years. Not sure what that means exactly, but more than half are among the worst ever. That says something! Market character has obviously become more volatile as compared to pre-1977.

My bad, I should have reflected the time range on that chart, like I usually do. Actually, the data reflected in that chart just covered 1975-2015, I listed the bottom 20 from that period only. I try to use only the most recent 41 year data, to keep the data more current, since trends change over long periods of time. Having said this Week 1 of 2016 is the worst week 1, going back to 1950.

I'm still getting burned in the S-Fund, I don't know what I was thinking when I started off the year here, I knew it had been underperforming, this is what I get for anticipating a shift in price performance before it happens...

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Originally Posted by JTH

My bad, I should have reflected the time range on that chart, like I usually do. Actually, the data reflected in that chart just covered 1975-2015, I listed the bottom 20 from that period only. I try to use only the most recent 41 year data, to keep the data more current, since trends change over long periods of time. Having said this Week 1 of 2016 is the worst week 1, going back to 1950.

Thanks for the clarification.